Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

[weathafella]

Give me qpf...in any form. That's my desire now. Today over performed.

[Damage In Tolland]

That there is not much hope for much snow in SNE, esp outside of the Berks. It doesn't mean it's impossible, but nothing points to that and we are starting to get out of the clown range and into more of a skillful range.

The argument can certainly be made that the most logical outcome in this scenario is a farther east solution. Whether that means snow or not is unknown but to start ruling out snows seems premie

[forkyfork]

people really thought there were snow chances? the setup stinks for snow

[CoastalWx]

The argument can certainly be made that the most logical outcome in this scenario is a farther east solution. Whether that means snow or not is unknown but to start ruling out snows seems premie

 

That also would mean a weaker scenario with little QPF on the backside, or you are talking about phasing a storm near the benchmark for a condo collapser which is probably the least likely scenario.

[ORH_wxman]

With the cold prior to this, any Ice signals with this?

 

 

Not really any of consequence..maybe a small transition area. We don't have ageostropic northerly drain until pretty late in the storm...there is no good high to the north.

 

The synoptic setup is poor for big snow or big winter wx. The low track is nice on many solutions, but there's more to snow/ice than just low tracks. The shortwave traversing to the north is hideous and blasts the region with WAA in the mid-levels before the coastal can be the dominant feature.

[heavy_wx]

Part of the issue is the lack of sustained 500 mb confluence over Quebec due to the active northern stream. This prevents much ageostrophic flow of colder air at low-levels.

[CT Rain]

Part of the issue is the lack of sustained 500 mb confluence over Quebec due to the active northern stream. This prevents much ageostrophic flow of colder air at low-levels.

 

Yup - this is exactly right. The setup with the northern stream just doesn't get the job done.

[weatherwiz]

Yup - that's true. I haven't seen any models really phasing enough with a deep enough northern stream to really get the cold involved in time for most of SNE. 

 

THere is a reason why big snow prior to 12/15 is hard to do. Climo sucks sometimes.

 

It's a shame there is a bit os disconnect going on (at least right now anyways) b/c we actually would have a decent amount of cold air in place across much of the region which can be quite tough to do this time of year.  So if anything, even at this range, it's at least good to have an airmass preceding an event which is colder rather than warmer.  

 

Almost as looks as if phasing begins to occur way too late.  The northern stream is pushing east at a fairly rapid rate (and it's not really digging enough, as you stated) and by the time the system works up the coast, it's actually looks like it's phasing into the backside of the northern stream.

 

It's still rather early to really discount any scenario at this time but if perhaps within the next day or so we can see the models perhaps either speed up the northward movement of the sfc low or slow down the northern stream perhaps we can gather a shot at something more fun.  

 

Regardless though, this could be quite a punch for the Green/White Mountains.  

[forkyfork]

a negative AO would help 

[weathafella]

December first half could be epic.

[Ginx snewx]

Interesting point from Will about things would be better 18 hours later. Sometimes these Miller A storms are slower than progged. Just something to watch. I see the QPF crowd dropped that worry. Forky gets to enjoy his 43 degree driving rains

[CoastalWx]

Yup - this is exactly right. The setup with the northern stream just doesn't get the job done.

 

Even if it did it would have to take the perfect track since the column is furnaced prior to the low's arrival. It's just rarely a scenario where you can get snow with WAA ahead of the low so early in the season. The old dead sea scroll adage works.

[Typhoon Tip]

Man the sliver of possible snowfall with the mid-week system continues to look so small... very narrow band where its cold enough to snow and also get meaningful precip. 

 

18z GFS...

 

 

 

18Z looks like a blue bomb for the Capital District of eastern NY.   Although, could see the eastern slopes of the Berks getting a deluge of big noodle balls in the 2nd half.  

[CoastalWx]

You would probably want to root for the euro solution of a follow up low, but sometimes those are a pipe dream.

[forkyfork]

You would probably want to root for the euro solution of a follow up low, but sometimes those are a pipe dream.

a bigger separation between the two waves with a stronger second wave is the only way this would work

[Damage In Tolland]

When the Euro comes in like last nites run tonight. Will be interesting to see folks take on that

[powderfreak]

Interesting point from Will about things would be better 18 hours later. Sometimes these Miller A storms are slower than progged. Just something to watch. I see the QPF crowd dropped that worry. Forky gets to enjoy his 43 degree driving rains

 

Good ol' DGEX would be a maple mauler for the Litchfield Hills up through the Berks and ORH hills through much of NH...  Its all going to depend where that 50 mile wide band of meaningful QPF overlaps with an all snow column ends up.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

You would probably want to root for the euro solution of a follow up low, but sometimes those are a pipe dream.

 

I think it is too early to "dance around a dire truth"     Going back in time ... the runs that picked this up at la-la ranges originally had more polar high moving into position in N NE.  The idea of more SW flow leading became late middle range player; which this is still 6 days away.  Subtle handling in the N stream could very well bring that arm of polar high back.  The only thing in my estimation that is stopping this from being the first synoptic performer of the season is the lack of antecedent cold, which is remarkable when we consider the -5SD air mass for Sunday-early Monday. 

[CoastalWx]

When the Euro comes in like last nites run tonight. Will be interesting to see folks take on that

 

There is a difference to ruling out any snow vs saying >4" will be difficult.

[CoastalWx]

I think it is too early to "dance around a dire truth"     Going back in time ... the runs that picked this up at la-la ranges originally had more polar high moving into position in N NE.  The idea of more SW flow leading became late middle range player; which this is still 6 days away.  Subtle handling in the N stream could very well bring that arm of polar high back.  The only thing in my estimation that is stopping this from being the first synoptic performer of the season is the lack of antecedent cold, which is remarkable when we consider the -5SD air mass for Sunday-early Monday. 

 

And that is a function of that low ahead of it. This probably would not matter 4 weeks from now.

[Typhoon Tip]

Good ol' DGEX would be a maple mauler for the Litchfield Hills up through the Berks and ORH hills through much of NH...  Its all going to depend where that 50 mile wide band of meaningful QPF overlaps with an all snow column ends up.

 

 

 

 

Not that the frankenmodel is worth much analysis ... but that low position is clearly in line with convectively induce vorticity shrapnel and therefore is like bogus before even considering the bogusness of the bogus.  Is that clear.  heh

[Typhoon Tip]

And that is a function of that low ahead of it. This probably would not matter 4 weeks from now.

 

Yup ... in fact, 4 weeks from now, dynamics combined with any low position SE of PVD would mean things doing the ole fliporino.   Don't know about t-g though.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Just for the shear muse of the thing ... jesus check out these low temperatures for the morning after 18" of snow come T-G morning!

 

[CoastalWx]

So for the Kevin's of the world, I think you have three options. Hope for a bombing low well se of ACK (probably least likely), hope for what the 12z euro has which was a follow up low (plausible, but not always likely whatsoever), or have the 00z run east which again is probably unlikely, but not impossible I guess.

[Bostonseminole]

So for the Kevin's of the world, I think you have three options. Hope for a bombing low well se of ACK (probably least likely), hope for what the 12z euro has which was a follow up low (plausible, but not always likely whatsoever), or have the 00z run east which again is probably unlikely, but not impossible I guess.

 

 

so pretty much we are screwed.

[weatherwiz]

So for the Kevin's of the world, I think you have three options. Hope for a bombing low well se of ACK (probably least likely), hope for what the 12z euro has which was a follow up low (plausible, but not always likely whatsoever), or have the 00z run east which again is probably unlikely, but not impossible I guess.

 

I would think a scenario of "bombing" SE of ACK is a much more likely scenario than a follow up low...those don't seem to happen all that often and almost always models seem to overdo that type of scenario.  

[powderfreak]

Not that the frankenmodel is worth much analysis ... but that low position is clearly in line with convectively induce vorticity shrapnel and therefore is like bogus before even considering the bogusness of the bogus.  Is that clear.  heh

 

Interesting, haha.  Didn't notice that but didn't analyze it either.  It would definitely bring that band of snow further SE than the GFS/ECM have right now.  Its always a good idea though to go with the DGEX over the GFS/ECM.

[CoastalWx]

so pretty much we are screwed.

 

For you and I regarding plowable snow....probably. I suppose stranger things have happened.  There should be ZERO angst from people if it doesn't snow. It's late November.

[CoastalWx]

I would think a scenario of "bombing" SE of ACK is a much more likely scenario than a follow up low...those don't seem to happen all that often and almost always models seem to overdo that type of scenario.  

 

Right, it's bombing and taking the perfect track and phasing to cool the mid levels, hence the less likely part. It very well could bomb near or SE of ACK.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Pf gets blasted no matter what, cmon man with that setup your area gets smoked

Saying PF gets snow is akin to saying Peyton Manning throws for a TD this week. Prolly a lock no matter what the final outcome. lol.