Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

[CoastalWx]

lol... 2-m temps aren't your issue.  Its hard to snow when its +4C at H85.

 

He ignored that part.

[dendrite]

The thread was focusing on the cold originally, but it was inevitible that some would weenie out over some of the OP solutions for next week.

I think there's only so much to talk about until it actually gets here though. We're at the point where 850s only fluctuate 0-2C from run to run and we've pretty much covered the Sunday record low max possibilities and 5z highs. I probably love cold more than most here too. Maybe it's time to have a separate cold and possible storm thread?

[CT Rain]

He ignored that part.

 

Yeah - it took some thick weenie goggles to come up with snow for many of us off the GFS. Verbatim I'd say maybe a 1/2" for Tolland?

[powderfreak]

This run hardly has anything on the coast...maybe flurries. Even back in interior SNE, its a quick shutoff.

 

 

I'd hedge on the side of little winter precip with this for SNE with such a digusting synoptic setup.

 

No matter where it tracks, the area of snow is so small... like maybe a 50 mile wide band or something on the NW side.  Just flooded with warmth up at H85-H7...I could even see a decent area of sleet or freezing rain in that transition zone as the SFC cold tries to tuck under the warmth aloft.  But the area of meaningful snow is so small on these runs. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah - it took some thick weenie goggles to come up with snow for many of us off the GFS. Verbatim I'd say maybe a 1/2" for Tolland?

 

Yeah perhaps with the second batch moving up. In any case, nice to see a cstl progged, it's been a while.

[CoastalWx]

I think there's only so much to talk about until it actually gets here though. We're at the point where 850s only fluctuate 0-2C from run to run and we've pretty much covered the Sunday record low max possibilities and 5z highs. I probably love cold more than most here too. Maybe it's time to have a separate cold and possible storm thread?

 

I'm looking forward to the chill...will feel nice to get a refreshing shot of true cold.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ok I'll leave

[ORH_wxman]

I think there's only so much to talk about until it actually gets here though. We're at the point where 850s only fluctuate 0-2C from run to run and we've pretty much covered the Sunday record low max possibilities and 5z highs. I probably love cold more than most here too. Maybe it's time to have a separate cold and possible storm thread?

 

 

I'm fine with talking about the storm...though I think personally the play by play at 126-132 hours gets to be a little much, though obviously many enjoy it...perhaps that means there should be a separate storm thread. Maybe this thread should be about the cold and the general pattern discussion going forward.

[dendrite]

Ok I'll leave

Before playing victim and leaving tell us how this is snow?

[powderfreak]

Ok I'll leave

 

?  C'mon dude, we know you know your met stuff...there's no way you looked at that GFS run and thought widespread snow.  You went fishing with that comment, what do you expect?

[ORH_wxman]

No matter where it tracks, the area of snow is so small... like maybe a 50 mile wide band or something on the NW side.  Just flooded with warmth up at H85-H7...I could even see a decent area of sleet or freezing rain in that transition zone as the SFC cold tries to tuck under the warmth aloft.  But the area of meaningful snow is so small on these runs. 

 

 

The clipper system to the north ruins our chance at a nice mid-level circulation with inflow and a true CCB...we WAA blast everything ahead of the coastal and we are left with an east-west thermal gradient...which sucks.

 

If we had the clipper outrun this by another 12-18 hours, then we'd probabyl re-establish a bit of latitude thermal gradient and develop a more robust easterly inflow. Its still possible that happens, but its not looking likely right now.

[CoastalWx]

The clipper system to the north ruins our chance at a nice mid-level circulation with inflow and a true CCB...we WAA blast everything ahead of the coastal and we are left with an east-west thermal gradient...which sucks.

 

If we had the clipper outrun this by another 12-18 hours, then we'd probabyl re-establish a bit of latitude thermal gradient and develop a more robust easterly inflow. Its still possible that happens, but its not looking likely right now.

 

Never a good thing when you have SW flow preceding a storm..especially this early. Maybe it can flip at the tale and or as that second s/w moves northeast.

[Ginx snewx]

Pf gets blasted no matter what, cmon man with that setup your area gets smoked

[CoastalWx]

You honestly can't be unhappy with the next 2-3 weeks or perhaps more as modeled. Given the date and potential 500mb look...I don't know what more you can ask for.

[ORH_wxman]

Pf gets blasted no matter what, cmon man with that setup your area gets smoked

 

 

Well unless it goes too far southeast or we have a Hudson valley runner. Both still very possible.

[Ginx snewx]

You honestly can't be unhappy with the next 2-3 weeks or perhaps more as modeled. Given the date and potential 500mb look...I don't know what more you can ask for.

Yeppers highly highly unlikely that an impactful snow does not occur, it has happened before but I will take my chances every single time with these progs.

[Ginx snewx]

Well unless it goes too far southeast or we have a Hudson valley runner. Both still very possible.

I was referring to 18Z GFS which he was talking about slivers of snow and warm air flooding, not there man

[powderfreak]

Pf gets blasted no matter what, cmon man with that setup your area gets smoked

 

No matter what?  lol, its threading a needle.  It moves 50 miles east there's nothing...50 miles west and its raining. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Folks talking like the final outcome has been determined. Just not understanding

[Ginx snewx]

No matter what?  lol, its threading a needle.  It moves 50 miles east there's nothing...50 miles west and its raining. 

On the 18ZGFS, so now you are changing what you were talking about. You posted a GFS map, that absolutely crushes SVT to you

[CoastalWx]

Folks talking like the final outcome has been determined. Just not understanding

 

I don't think anyone said final outcome, I believe the talk was referring to the consensus so far.

[powderfreak]

I was referring to 18Z GFS which he was talking about slivers of snow and warm air flooding, not there man

 

Huh?  Look aloft Ginx.  I'm not talking about here per se... and yes, it is a sliver of snow.  I don't consider an area that's essentially 5 counties wide to be a huge swath of snow.

 

Eitherway, its just one model run.  Not worth getting too into it over the 18z GFS.

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't think anyone said final outcome, I believe the talk was referring to the consensus so far.

What con census is there?

[eduggs]

I didn't see that has blatant hype, its says, Noreaster snow or rain, I would make that call today, a miss seems the least possible scenario

Some are overcompensating for the hypsters by insisting that storms should not be mentioned to the public (or discussed on a weather forum) until we know what's going to happen.

The pendulum swings both ways, but hopefully we will reach a balance.

[CoastalWx]

What con census is there?

 

That there is not much hope for much snow in SNE, esp outside of the Berks. It doesn't mean it's impossible, but nothing points to that and we are starting to get out of the clown range and into more of a skillful range.

[eduggs]

Yeah GFS is the dream scenario for winter lovers in terms of track, phasing, and strong forcing on the NW side of the storm. It's still not enough to deliver the goods for most areas. Maybe a sliver of snow on the NW flank VT and NH?

It looks like the mid-level circulation gets organized relatively late... resulting in mostly frontside precip.  Not quite a dream scenario but definitely an historicaly good snow track.  And yet snow is geographically confined, as you say.

[CT Rain]

It looks like the mid-level circulation gets organized relatively late... resulting in mostly frontside precip.  Not quite a dream scenario but definitely an historicaly good snow track.  And yet snow is geographically confined, as you say.

 

Yup - that's true. I haven't seen any models really phasing enough with a deep enough northern stream to really get the cold involved in time for most of SNE. 

 

THere is a reason why big snow prior to 12/15 is hard to do. Climo sucks sometimes.

[Modfan]

Yup - that's true. I haven't seen any models really phasing enough with a deep enough northern stream to really get the cold involved in time for most of SNE. 

 

THere is a reason why big snow prior to 12/15 is hard to do. Climo sucks sometimes.

With the cold prior to this, any Ice signals with this?

[powderfreak]

It looks like the mid-level circulation gets organized relatively late... resulting in mostly frontside precip.  Not quite a dream scenario but definitely an historicaly good snow track.  And yet snow is geographically confined, as you say.

 

This...it would sweet if those mid levels could get their act together sooner and develop more of an easterly flow to try to expand the snow area.  As it is, the mid-levels are mostly southerly winds keeping precip more in the warm sector, lacking that strong easterly component from well organized closed mid-level lows that transport moisture deeper into the cold dome.    Geographically confined is a great way of phrasing it.

[powderfreak]

With the cold prior to this, any Ice signals with this?

 

It almost looked like 2-m temps of 32F or lower were actually a little further southeast than the 850mb freezing line on some of the runs...  I could see a band of mixed precip in there as that surface cold won't be far away.  As the surface low gets its act together, it actually pulls SFC winds out of the north while mid-level winds are more southerly... it looks like some surface cold could certainly undercut the warming in the H85-H7 region which might give a narrow band of IP/ZR just SE of the snow band where ever that ends up.