Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

[Ginx snewx]

I don't see anything that says you can't. I just think it's experimental and currently being housed on WRH SSD servers, which are internal.

cool 

[powderfreak]

I keep forgetting that site isn't public. Sorry.

naefs_2013112200_ne_freq_t_850_60.png

Awesome! What a cool product.

[Typhoon Tip]

Half the state of TX and most of OK under some kind of advisory for winter... Nice

[CoastalWx]

I also think it's pretty impressive that the H7 U wind anomalies across NV are -5 right now.

 

Yes and people are loving flying through the SW right now.

[moneypitmike]

The thread was focusing on the cold originally, but it was inevitible that some would weenie out over some of the OP solutions for next week.

 

Cold can't sustain a thread.  But snow......

 

Reminds me of this line from Jaws:

 

You say "barracuda" - people say -  "huh, what?!"

You say 'shark"- we've got a panic on the Fourth of July.

 

39.6/39, thick fog

[Typhoon Tip]

Cold can't sustain a thread.  But snow......

 

Reminds me of this line from Jaws:

 

You say "barracuda" - people say -  "huh, what?!"

You say 'shark"- we've got a panic on the Fourth of July.

 

39.6/39, thick fog

 

 

And I'm looking over things today and thinking, "You're going to need bigger boat"

[ORH_wxman]

Cold can't sustain a thread.  But snow......

 

Reminds me of this line from Jaws:

 

You say "barracuda" - people say -  "huh, what?!"

You say 'shark"- we've got a panic on the Fourth of July.

 

39.6/39, thick fog

 

 

I agree...it reminds me last year of when some complained about the lack of cold through mid January...but in secret it was really the lack of snow...the cold came and nobody cared because snow didn't come with it for 2 weeks. Then February 8-9th happened.

 

Same phenomenon happened in the first 20 days of Dec 2010...we had cold, and a cutter mixed in...but no snow. The nooses were being tied in the thread with each passing day...then finally the snow came. In the end, its all about the snow for most here. A small minority care about the cold more than the snow...I am definitely not one of them, but I do like a good anomalous cold shot.

[Brian5671]

Kevin's now working at the local CBS station

what a joke.  Blatant ratings grab

[dryslot]

I would give up my winter hobbies if i had to rely on backside snows in any system

[powderfreak]

Impressive mentions in the BTV AFD...25 degrees below normal highs, wind chills below zero, full winter.

 

UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR QUICKLY MOVES INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS. ADD BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE AND THIS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL READINGS IN
THE 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW RANGE SUNDAY AND THEN WIND CHILLS FALLING BELOW
ZERO ALL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING AND ACTUAL LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WHILE NONE OF
THE WEATHER ELEMENTS MAY NOT BE CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT...THE SHARP CHANGES
TO MORE HARSHER CONDITIONS SUGGESTS GOOD SITUATIONAL AWARENESS NEEDS
TO TAKE PLACE TO PREPARE FOR THESE CONDITIONS. A METEOROLOGICAL SIDE
NOTE...BY SUNDAY MORNING THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA WILL
BE AROUND -46C...WHICH IS SOMETHING VERY RARE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

[moneypitmike]

And I'm looking over things today and thinking, "You're going to need bigger boat"

 

Or perhaps an ark. 

[OceanStWx]

18   4  -3   1   0  64   0 0.02  0.5    8  1.4  6  20   M    M  10 1       6  1019   4 -27 -11 -11  76   0 0.07  0.3    9  1.7  7  20   M    M   7 1       8  3020 -22 -32 -27 -27  92   0 0.00  0.0    9  0.6  6  50   M    M   0 1       6  5021   3 -33 -15 -15  80   0 0.00  0.0    8  1.8  7  40   M    M   4         9  40

22    16      3    10    10  (prelim for the day so far)

 

Anytime you see Fairbanks go from big time negative departures to positive, look out. It's coming.

[OceanStWx]

Impressive mentions in the BTV AFD...25 degrees below normal highs, wind chills below zero, full winter.

 

A METEOROLOGICAL SIDE NOTE...BY SUNDAY MORNING THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA WILL BE AROUND -46C...WHICH IS SOMETHING VERY RARE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

 

File that under the possibly never observed.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Impressive mentions in the BTV AFD...25 degrees below normal highs, wind chills below zero, full winter.

 

UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR QUICKLY MOVES INTO

THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON

SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE

TEENS. ADD BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS

IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE AND THIS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL READINGS IN

THE 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW RANGE SUNDAY AND THEN WIND CHILLS FALLING BELOW

ZERO ALL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING AND ACTUAL LOW

TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WHILE NONE OF

THE WEATHER ELEMENTS MAY NOT BE CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT...THE SHARP CHANGES

TO MORE HARSHER CONDITIONS SUGGESTS GOOD SITUATIONAL AWARENESS NEEDS

TO TAKE PLACE TO PREPARE FOR THESE CONDITIONS. A METEOROLOGICAL SIDE

NOTE...BY SUNDAY MORNING THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA WILL

BE AROUND -46C...WHICH IS SOMETHING VERY RARE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

 

Impressive forecast high for MVL etc.

[powderfreak]

Or perhaps an ark. 

 

QPF worries may be turning to rain worries, lol.  Majority of the 12z GFS ensembles have a solid 1"+ precip event midweek.

 

[powderfreak]

Impressive forecast high for MVL etc.

 

I found the -46C at H5 pretty impressive, but I have no idea what a normal temp at that level would be this time of year. 

[Ginx snewx]

what a joke.  Blatant ratings grab

Uh they said rain or snow correct? Ryans station has basically the same thing up

[Ginx snewx]

File that under the possibly never observed.

 

naefs_2013112212_ne_freq_t_500_48.png

 

Now thats incredible, reason to me why some crazy stuff could happen 

[CoastalWx]

I found the -46C at H5 pretty impressive, but I have no idea what a normal temp at that level would be this time of year. 

 

That's going to feel not so nice at 4k.

[OceanStWx]

I found the -46C at H5 pretty impressive, but I have no idea what a normal temp at that level would be this time of year. 

 

Probably talking -20 to -25

[Damage In Tolland]

what a joke.  Blatant ratings grab

Without viewers there is no station..get it?

[Ginx snewx]

Without viewers there is no station..get it?

I didn't see that has blatant hype, its says, Noreaster snow or rain, I would make that call today, a miss seems the least possible scenario

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Or perhaps an ark. 

 

I'd love a prolific rain to get the beaver pond up to skating levels plus we are at a deficit right now anyway. 

[CoastalWx]

18z GFS is juicy.

[powderfreak]

Man the sliver of possible snowfall with the mid-week system continues to look so small... very narrow band where its cold enough to snow and also get meaningful precip. 

 

18z GFS...

 

[CoastalWx]

It's funny how cold the srfc temps are and how high the thicknesses are for such a low track on the GFS.

[CT Rain]

Man the sliver of possible snowfall with the mid-week system continues to look so small... very narrow band where its cold enough to snow and also get meaningful precip. 

 

18z GFS...

 

 

 

Yeah GFS is the dream scenario for winter lovers in terms of track, phasing, and strong forcing on the NW side of the storm. It's still not enough to deliver the goods for most areas. Maybe a sliver of snow on the NW flank VT and NH?

[powderfreak]

Yeah GFS is the dream scenario for winter lovers in terms of track, phasing, and strong forcing on the NW side of the storm. It's still not enough to deliver the goods for most areas. Maybe a sliver of snow on the NW flank VT and NH?

 

Well it seems that as it stays an open wave, its not able to transport much moisture westward into the cold.  The bulk of the precip rides up the warm sector and heads NE...there's no like cold sector comma head or anything. 

[ORH_wxman]

yeah nice snow event for many folks all thruout NE. Even changes over right to coast. Let's lock it

 

 

This run hardly has anything on the coast...maybe flurries. Even back in interior SNE, its a quick shutoff.

 

 

I'd hedge on the side of little winter precip with this for SNE with such a digusting synoptic setup.

[powderfreak]

Um..yeah..I hope you're not taking the 2m temps verbatim..We've discussed quite a bit today and in the past how the GFS is known to warm profiles too much in coastals

 

lol... 2-m temps aren't your issue.  Its hard to snow when its +4C at H85.