Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

[OceanStWx]

Don't the ec/gfs run 3hrly steps now?

 

You think we'd be able to see any of that here? I get so used to looking at what comes into our computers that I forgot what was available online. Of course I still can't see the ECMWF at that resolution even online.

 

Same general thing applies though, even if only one of the three hours is snow, if the model indicates snow at the time step all QPF will be converted to snow.

[It's Always Sunny]

First half of December is starting to have some real promise...still have to get through the next week though without big changes for the worse.

Looks like you get your -NAO but it appears to be east based.

[Damage In Tolland]

It should be noted that the Euro ens show a massive amount of spread..so those locking in warm, rainy solutions should hold off. Also they end it as snow to the coast..as does the op model

[OceanStWx]

It should be noted that the Euro ens show a massive amount of spread..so those locking in warm, rainy solutions should hold off. Also they end it as snow to the coast..as does the op model

 

 

You see the problem here right?

 

Why don't we focus on the weekend at hand before we nail down midweek.

[dendrite]

It should be noted that the Euro ens show a massive amount of spread..so those locking in warm, rainy solutions should hold off. Also they end it as snow to the coast..as does the op model

I see no flip back to snow on the op for you. I don't think anyone locked in the warm side of the envelope either, but the ec ens keep adding torch members every 12hrs.

[Ginx snewx]

You see the problem here right?

 

Why don't we focus on the weekend at hand before we nail down midweek.

Exactly, wheres my map?

[ORH_wxman]

You see the problem here right?

 

Why don't we focus on the weekend at hand before we nail down midweek.

 

 

That clipper system is the real turd in the punch bowl for getting a more ideal winter setup...if we can speed it up another 12 hours, I think it would help out a lot.

[OceanStWx]

Exactly, wheres my map?

 

I keep forgetting that site isn't public. Sorry.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

That's PDO. EPO is more the area from the beaches of western Canada through the Aleutians..especially east of the dateline I believe.

 

 

• Eastern Pacific Oscillation(EPO) [(20-35N, 160W-125W) - (55-65N, 160W-125W)]

[Ginx snewx]

Teleconnections and Analogs are lining up, first week of Dec magic looks promising for sure. 

[Tropopause_Fold]

It should be noted that the Euro ens show a massive amount of spread..so those locking in warm, rainy solutions should hold off. Also they end it as snow to the coast..as does the op model

Good thing there's not about 50 posts telling everybody it's not set in stone yet

[Damage In Tolland]

I see no flip back to snow on the op for you. I don't think anyone locked in the warm side of the envelope either, but the ec ens keep adding torch members every 12hrs.

You don't see that on Thursday?

[Ginx snewx]

I keep forgetting that site isn't public. Sorry.

 

naefs_2013112200_ne_freq_t_850_60.png

lol at the nevers in the MA, epic cold. Can I use this map?

[CoastalWx]

 

• Eastern Pacific Oscillation(EPO) [(20-35N, 160W-125W) - (55-65N, 160W-125W)]

 

 

Thank you oh Tippy Titan of Teleconnections.

[Damage In Tolland]

You see the problem here right?

 

Why don't we focus on the weekend at hand before we nail down midweek.

What is there really to focus on the weekend?

 

It's going to be 20-25 on DSunday with winds gusting to or over 50mph at times.

 

The real story is the impending travel day storm

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs looks to try to throw a band of precip from eastern ma up through maine. That would probably be a nice little snow event if temps cooperate. Just one of many solutions obviously

[dendrite]

I see no flip back to snow on the op for you. I don't think anyone locked in the warm side of the envelope either, but the ec ens keep adding torch members every 12hrs.

n/m...I guess I see it now. It's the 2nd batch of hang-back -RA/SN from the southern stream upper lvl system. Good luck with that at this point.

[Damage In Tolland]

Good thing there's not about 50 posts telling everybody it's not set in stone yet

You seem a bit perturbed? There are some tweets going out that are saying rain is most likely

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Wow 10 pages already for a marginal November threat.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Good thing there's not about 50 posts telling everybody it's not set in stone yet

You seem a bit perturbed? There are some tweets going out that are saying rain is most likely

Well would you say snow is more likely than rain?

[ORH_wxman]

I keep forgetting that site isn't public. Sorry.

 

naefs_2013112200_ne_freq_t_850_60.png

 

 

What is impressive about that map is the date range is during a period of fast decline in average temperatures (mid Nov to early Dec)...so some of those colder valuers would probably be wiped out if the cutoff was, say, Nov 30th versus Dec 5th.

 

And yet, it still has such infrequent occurance.

[CoastalWx]

LOL I like how they are posing two questions.

[ORH_wxman]

Wow 10 pages already for a marginal November threat.

 

 

The thread was focusing on the cold originally, but it was inevitible that some would weenie out over some of the OP solutions for next week.

[Ginx snewx]

Wow 10 pages already for a marginal November threat.

Well there is more than just threat talk, the title does say record cold plus I would not use the term marginal, NNE especially

[Damage In Tolland]

Well would you say snow is more likely than rain?

No. As of now I would see both are equally as likely.

 

I still think it ends up a rain changing to accumulating snow scenario ..again due to the progressive nature of systems we have seen all fall,.

[Typhoon Tip]

Thank you oh Tippy Titan of Teleconnections.

 

 

Lol -

[Damage In Tolland]

I would say that CBS station will lead the ratings in viewers this weekend

[OceanStWx]

lol at the nevers in the MA, epic cold. Can I use this map?

 

I don't see anything that says you can't. I just think it's experimental and currently being housed on WRH SSD servers, which are internal.

[CT Rain]

Kevin's now working at the local CBS station

[OceanStWx]

What is impressive about that map is the date range is during a period of fast decline in average temperatures (mid Nov to early Dec)...so some of those colder valuers would probably be wiped out if the cutoff was, say, Nov 30th versus Dec 5th.

 

And yet, it still has such infrequent occurance.

 

I also think it's pretty impressive that the H7 U wind anomalies across NV are -5 right now.