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Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2013 at 12:48 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Thanks Brian. I have to read thru yesterday to find the convo between Scoots (who is very crabby btw) and Ocean

 

LOL.  Uncharacteristically so.

 

A couple cold-looking calves in yard.  At least they're not trying to destroy my young apple trees like they do in the warm months.

 

It is a little nipply out there.

 

13.4/4

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2013 at 12:48 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Thanks Brian. I have to read thru yesterday to find the convo between Scoots (who is very crabby btw) and Ocean

LOL I'm fine, it's just a funny convo you guys are having. It looked like they based it on MOS? I know it looked that way for BOS on their zone forecast but I did not see the P&C. What's your temp now? Kevin will probably eek lower 20s.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 11/23/2013 at 9:59 PM, OceanStWx said:

It's a tough forecast based on how the grids work. High temps are between 12 and 01z, while lows are 00-13z. So there isn't really room in the grids to make a forecast of a midnight high temp with just max and min T. You have to manually work the hourly temps to show that trends. I just went and massaged our grids with the NAM12 2 m temps. That way my "high" and "low" for the day both occur right around 12z based on how our grids work.

 

At least in this way the P&C will show "highs" in the mid 20s during the day.

Bump.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2013 at 11:07 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

16.2  and winds cranking. As deep a winter day as we ever see. Looks like we stay in the teens today..which is probably a first for Nov

 

If it does, it would be the first time on my records.  The current record is 25° in 2008.  It's currently 18° here off a low of 14°.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2013 at 12:53 PM, moneypitmike said:

I think we're pretty much at the point of wondering "how warm or cold do you like your rain".

Lol well since i will be in central vt , im not at that point. 0z euro was mildest run for vt yet , so im gonna watch to see if that is too amp'd or not. I care mostly about nne mountains and where i will be in central vt for this upcoming system. I know there is a def threat of rain all the way up to jay peak w this puke atlantic but there is legit hope in vt/nne still. The cp of sne bores me alot as it leaves alot to be desired as a winter wx lover. I will never settle for its climo. As scooter and Will l know

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2013 at 12:54 PM, CoastalWx said:

LOL I'm fine, it's just a funny convo you guys are having. It looked like they based it on MOS? I know it looked that way for BOS on their zone forecast but I did not see the P&C. What's your temp now? Kevin will probably eek lower 20s.

 

At 13.4/3 here, up from 12.9*.  I think it'll be tough to hit 20* here--perhaps 17-18 is a better bet.  If we had a snow pack, the rebound would be tougher to come by.  Either way, it'll be a good battle between the cool air and the sun.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2013 at 1:03 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah. I read that again a few minutes ago

I don't totally comprehend how their products mesh and what input the humans have

14.1/6. Yowza

 

Well  I think you and MPM struggle for 20 and likely stay in the teens to be honest. MOS did warm everyone up from normal daytime heating, but IMHO it's too aggressive. As we say, it's a 2m temps day because most of the time, the 2m temps are closer to being correct. MOS is a statistical product and will struggle in these early season anomalous events. We see the opposite in the spring when we have west winds in April with a high of 72 at BOS. We know it's more like 82.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2013 at 1:09 PM, CoastalWx said:

Well  I think you and MPM struggle for 20 and likely stay in the teens to be honest. MOS did warm everyone up from normal daytime heating, but IMHO it's too aggressive. As we say, it's a 2m temps day because most of the time, the 2m temps are closer to being correct. MOS is a statistical product and will struggle in these early season anomalous events. We see the opposite in the spring when we have west winds in April with a high of 72 at BOS. We know it's more like 82.

 

I think BOX had made some reference along these lines with regard to the upstream temps they were seeing yesterday behind the arctic front. 

 

I imagine we'll be able to see in the next hour or so how the sun vs. CAA is playing out.  Doing a sampling of meso reports, it seems that folks have risen about .5* from their lows thus far.

 

13.5/3, up from 12.9

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cny rider

cny rider

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2013 at 1:24 PM, Logan11 said:

I'd still be pretty surprised though if the lowest pressure cuts west of the coastal plain. I could buy like NYC to BOS track...

We at least would stand a chance that way here in central NY.

My 30 miles or so west of you could help too.

2 inches overnight and 10F when I woke up.

Just like January.  With some impressive cold coming after T-day.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Yeah I got a couple inches also. Nice to see white outside.

 

Looks like most models start us as snow anyway....and probably end as snow (at least in central NY). So we can start from there and see what transpires.

  On 11/24/2013 at 1:31 PM, cny rider said:

We at least would stand a chance that way here in central NY.

My 30 miles or so west of you could help too.

2 inches overnight and 10F when I woke up.

Just like January.  With some impressive cold coming after T-day.

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