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Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion


ORH_wxman

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I thought it was time to shift to a new thread for the end of this month and beyond. The most imminent interesting weather is the potential record cold for Sunday and maybe Sunday night.

 

Most places (including BOS and PVD) will probably not make it out of the 20s on Sunday. I believe all 5 SNE major climo sites will break their record low max temperatures for November 24th if the cold makes it in on time before the midnight bell on Saturday night. For BDL and probably BDR, I think they will make it. For BOS/ORH/PVD, its a bit murkier...probably about 50/50. We'll likely know if the record low maxes will be broken on Sunday by midnight Saturday night.

 

 

Record lows for Monday morning are going to be harder...BDR looks like a lock with their record low being a vulnerable 22F, but the others probably won't make it. BDL has a shot if they can go calm late (record low for 11/25 there is 12F). ORH has an outside shot with the record low being 9F and several 2m outputs bottoming out near 10-12F. BOS (13F) and PVD (12F) are probably out of reach, but can't totally rule it out. But think mid to upper teens will probably do it there.

 

Here's the 00z NAM's 2m temps for 18z Sunday around the time of typical high temps:

 

f66.gif

 

 

 

 

 

A more organized list of the records:

 

 

Record low maxes for 11/24:

 

BOS: 29F (1936)

PVD: 31F (1936)

ORH: 26F (2000)

BDL: 31F (1936)

BDR: 35F (2000, 1989, 1956)

 

 

Record lows for 11/25:

 

BOS: 13F (1938)

PVD: 12F (1938)

ORH: 9F (1936)

BDL: 12F (2000)

BDR: 22F (1993 and 2005)

 

 

 

 

As for beyond the cold shot, the storm system for mid-week remains highly uncertain on model guidance. The chances for a high impact wintry system remain low in my opinion, but cannot be ruled out...way to early to spike any footballs regarding such a complex interaction of streams. Especially since we are dealing with a cutoff low ejecting out of the southwest which is notoriously bad for model guidance.

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the nam 2-m temps Will shows above say it all. look at the 32F isotherm offshore. that's ridiculously cold for November. i've seen plenty of mid-winter days when even the higher res models like the nam can't "see" the shape and resultant temp gradient of the coastal areas and consequently allow the 32F contour to cut across land...when in reality it will be offshore.

 

the NAM has ACK below freezing at 1pm on sunday. For Nantucket, this would probably register as about a -8 or -9F around Jan 20th.

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BOS may be the trickiest for record low max, I was looking at that earlier. I think it will though.

 

 

Yes, agreed, they will have the hardest one I think. BDR is by far the easiest...you can almost write that one in ink...35F will get blown away. They'll probably be at 35F by Saturday evening there.

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Actually on second thought, BOS may be an

hour or two from doing it. It looks like they may just fall short, but we'll see.

 

 

00z NAM sped up the front from 18z...more in line with the Euro. It did warm a bit for Sunday afternoon from 18z as Ryan mentioned though still easily cold enough for record low maxes. I don't think Sunday afternoon will be the question...it will be all about Saturday night.

 

That is, unless we see some drastic model failure on 850mb temp output inside of 3 days.

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00z NAM sped up the front from 18z...more in line with the Euro. It did warm a bit for Sunday afternoon from 18z as Ryan mentioned though still easily cold enough for record low maxes. I don't think Sunday afternoon will be the question...it will be all about Saturday night.

That is, unless we see some drastic model failure on 850mb temp output inside of 3 days.

Oh yeah Sunday is frigid. No question temps are below 30 even on the coast. Probably mid to upper 20s like you said. I think winds could veer a bit west ahead of the secondary front which may slow the temp drop until fropa. If the front can come through near or just after 4z, then maybe BOS can do

It.

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Would the bottom left graph indicate the trajectory of lake effect snows or is that driven by something different?

Yes.....compare the bottom left 10m winds with the upper right 3hr precip.....note the precip is confined southeast of the lakes generally in the same direction as the winds.....cool stuff

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