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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

Posted
Posted

More posts on the 18z GFS than there was on the Euro..unreal

Lol, everyone, take a step back from the ledge and realize it's the 18z GFS at 150+ hrs. No other model is as wound up as this. It is pretty amazing how consistent it's been with showing a storm during the Christmas Day/day after Christmas time frame. Lots of details to still iron out obviously.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Lol, everyone, take a step back from the ledge and realize it's the 18z GFS at 150+ hrs. No other model is as wound up as this. It is pretty amazing how consistent it's been with showing a storm during the Christmas Day/day after Christmas time frame. Lots of details to still iron out obviously.

lol no one is on the ledge

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Lol, everyone, take a step back from the ledge and realize it's the 18z GFS at 150+ hrs. No other model is as wound up as this. It is pretty amazing how consistent it's been with showing a storm during the Christmas Day/day after Christmas time frame. Lots of details to still iron out obviously.

A triple bunner

:weenie::weenie::weenie:

18z ensemble mean is still southeast of the benchmark.

As we thought

18zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS156.gif

lol no one is on the ledge

Yup.

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

lol no one is on the ledge

Lol really... after last storm I don't think anyone is getting emotionally invested until 72 hours out this time. At least I hope they don't.

With this storm though, I like how simple the pattern is. We don't have to wait for 40506 million pieces to come together to form a noreaster. This one is a straight shooter and I think it will be our first

shot of >4" for this season.

I posted this question earlier but no one answered... What is causing the 50/50 low to reform on the coast and move up the coast?

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted

Lol really... after last storm I don't think anyone is getting emotionally invested until 72 hours out this time. At least I hope they don't.

With this storm though, I like how simple the pattern is. We don't have to wait for 40506 million pieces to come together to form a noreaster. This one is a straight shooter and I think it will be our first

shot of >4" for this season.

I posted this question earlier but no one answered... What is causing the 50/50 low to reform on the coast and move up the coast?

Wednesday.

:lmao:

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Lol really... after last storm I don't think anyone is getting emotionally invested until 72 hours out this time. At least I hope they don't.

With this storm though, I like how simple the pattern is. We don't have to wait for 40506 million pieces to come together to form a noreaster. This one is a straight shooter and I think it will be our first

shot of >4" for this season.

I posted this question earlier but no one answered... What is causing the 50/50 low to reform on the coast and move up the coast?

A 50/50 low is in reference to lat/lon.

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=50.0n,+50.0w&sll=50,-50&sspn=10.414966,28.54248&ie=UTF8&z=6

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the detailed graph Brian, it seems like, since 2006 at least.... the different runs of the GFS verify about the same. The Euro of course, is on its own planet lol. Anything beyond 72 hours is fantasy land (especially this winter.)

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Yeah the arctic air seems to be mostly behind the storm...we start out with slightly below normal temperatures but the warmth over Eastern Canada means we don't have a traditional cold pool over Quebec to save us from an ugly track of the SLP. We really have to rely on the event tracking south of us to do well, except for NNE and places with big elevation in SNE.

Dobbs Ferry is just a little too close to it as it's presented in the 18z, socks. 90% of New England will fare better due to them being or north of the NYC burbs.

25.9/18

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Dobbs Ferry is just a little too close to it as it's presented in the 18z, socks. 90% of New England will fare better due to them being east and/or north of the NYC burbs.

25.9/18

I'd actually argue that being further west is better on the 18z although not immediately on the coast like where I am...more in the Poconos, central NY, etc. You don't want to be sitting in coastal New England with 20kt easterly winds in December and a marginal airmass, as well as the potential for dryslotting and a warm punch at 700mb due to the track of the low. It doesn't really matter anyway at this point since the models are bound to bounce around in the coming days regarding the path of this system.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

I'd actually argue that being further west is better on the 18z although not immediately on the coast like where I am...more in the Poconos, central NY, etc. You don't want to be sitting in coastal New England with 20kt easterly winds in December and a marginal airmass, as well as the potential for dryslotting and a warm punch at 700mb due to the track of the low. It doesn't really matter anyway at this point since the models are bound to bounce around in the coming days regarding the path of this system.

That track seems like a very low likelihood anyway, even the 18z GEFS was more in line with a euro track.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

I'd actually argue that being further west is better on the 18z although not immediately on the coast like where I am...more in the Poconos, central NY, etc. You don't want to be sitting in coastal New England with 20kt easterly winds in December and a marginal airmass, as well as the potential for dryslotting and a warm punch at 700mb due to the track of the low. It doesn't really matter anyway at this point since the models are bound to bounce around in the coming days regarding the path of this system.

I reread my post and removed the "east" reference. My bad. The north piece htough still wil have the majority of SNE real estate do well at laeast on the front end and many of us will do well throughout.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Lets be realistic though..what may be more relevant is the longitude at which the trough amplifies next weekend. The GFS is the ultimate most phased, most stacked scenario and that takes a low over NYC. Reality probably would be less perfect (as we see right now) and therefore I think the trough position probably bodes well for most in NY and NE and the actual low would probably not be onshore like that. I like this position (at this range) better than with the current storm where you needed practically perfection to to get a snowstorm from I-95 n/w.

That track seems like a very low likelihood anyway, even the 18z GEFS was more in line with a euro track.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

That track seems like a very low likelihood anyway, even the 18z GEFS was more in line with a euro track.

We'll have to see what the 0z runs show. The GEFS always show a suppressed system in this time range because there are a number of individual members that have the storm either not really existing or well offshore. I really only use the GEFS if it is NW of the operational because that is usually a warning signal that a closer solution is more likely.

I reread my post and removed the "east" reference. My bad. The north piece htough still wil have the majority of SNE real estate do well at laeast on the front end and many of us will do well throughout.

Your area would probably do OK as you're not likely to be affected by the maritime flow as much. But the reality is the system could play out in a million ways, from an I-95 coastal bomb to a suppressed bowling ball moving through the Mid-Atlantic to a cutter.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

Lets be realistic though..what may be more relevant is the longitude at which the trough amplifies next weekend. The GFS is the ultimate most phased, most stacked scenario and that takes a low over NYC. Reality probably would be less perfect (as we see right now) and therefore I think the trough position probably bodes well for most in NY and NE and the actual low would probably not be onshore like that. I like this position (at this range) better than with the current storm where you needed practically perfection to to get a snowstorm from I-95 n/w.

I agree, we seem to have a better margin of error with this one, and also even if the coastal develops too far off shore, we should still see a nice swath of 3-6 or 4-8 just with the bowling ball system as it traverses the country.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Yeah unless something crazy happens and the H5 trough trends even further west (Yikes) ...but with the confluence to start and the position of the block, I certainly hope we avoid that doomsday scenario again.

I agree, we seem to have a better margin of error with this one, and also even if the coastal develops too far off shore, we should still see a nice swath of 3-6 or 4-8 just with the bowling ball system as it traverses the country.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Yeah the GFS loses it out to sea this time with competing s/w's that muck it up. So who knows. Such a scenario would be fitting this year, but one run means nothing..it may bounce back at 6Z.

I'm not sure why people are making "ugh" threads about a d6 event in which models have been close to the coast on every run for days now.

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