Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

[weatherwiz]

To me, a euro run like tonight is about the closest this adult will ever come to those nervous happy feelings we had as kids the as we went to bed the night before christmas! Alot to still be ironed out re the model chaos, but at least the euro has been rock steady.

Yeah I know what you mean. I'm dying for a large storm, it will be 5 years this February since I saw anything really great. As much as I really want to get amped for this I'm going to do the best I can to tamper back but come Friday if were seeing similar solutions on the euro and other models coming around to it I won't be able to hold back much longer.

[Logan11]

One thing maybe we should ask ourselves though is ..... why is this model so extremely different from the others? It sounds exciting and it is the vaunted Euro, but I'd really like to see another jump on the bandwagon with this kind of extreme scenario before buying it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Sure why not? You cant really think it in terms of "two lows"...a lot of storms have that but probably less defined. When you see elongated low centers, its really just an area of cyclogensis occurring in another region almost as much as the center of the low.

I do think these Euro solutions are a bit amped up and wrapped up...so I don't thunk we'll see this verify, but you have to think of the low center as a fluid moving object, not a set thing that tracks...lows actually continuously redevelop along the line of best dynamics...they don't "track"...but its much easier to say track than redevelop.

I still think this ends up a moderate, forgettable event.

[ORH_wxman]

I still think this ends up a moderate, forgettable event.

There is no reason to think it will be a monster yet.

[nzucker]

There is no reason to think it will be a monster yet.

Do you think the ECM's slow bias in ejecting energy from the SW could be the reason for it showing a monster hit compared to faster models like the GFS?

[ORH_wxman]

Do you think the ECM's slow bias in ejecting energy from the SW could be the reason for it showing a monster hit compared to faster models like the GFS?

It might be...but it also has a better looking northern stream config. The GFS is awful on both front, though it trended better at 00z.

[nzucker]

ECM shows a return to a blocking regime in the LR with the -NAO redeveloping, albeit a bit more east based, and higher heights moving into the West. Models are hinting at a lakes cutter in early January followed by the coldest air of the season as the Siberian high pressure has moved into Canada. This may set up more storm opportunities in the first and second week of January as the below average temperature regime seems to be going nowhere fast.

Sorry if this is a bit OT Will.

[40/70 Benchmark]

An early occlusion and vertical stacked low would significantly reduce the northward extent of the major snows. However, this run is absolutely historic and would be a top 5 storm for the Mid Atlantic if it came to fruition.

Will, what are your thoughts regarding the pig low trending more stubborn; are you concerned about this pulling a Feb 2010.....

No, I'm not. It may try to cut off pretty far south, but even in that case (like this run), it still bombs us...it has a very wide circulation to the northeast of the low. I' get worried if we started seeing this get cuttoff over south carolina or Georgia or something.

Will, HM seemed to share my concern......I just view us getting saved by the low "redeveloping to the ne" as a bit volatile and fluky.....I mean, I do not want to depend on it redeloping in the perfect trajectory.

[ORH_wxman]

Will, HM seemed to share my concern......I just view us getting saved by the low "redeveloping to the ne" as bit volatile and fluky.....I mean, I do not want to depen on it redeloping in the perfect trajectory.

The phase that far south is an outlier and unlikely IMHO...but again, even if that happens, we got 15-20" of snow this run. It has to happen EVEN further south for us to get screwed. Dendrite got 10" of this run.

[nzucker]

The phase that far south is an outlier and unlikely IMHO...but again, even if that happens, we got 15-20" of snow this run. It has to happen EVEN further south for us to get screwed. Dendrite got 10" of this run.

Could you see this phasing near the Gulf or Carolinas and then just tracking east?

The 0z ECM seems to have an abrupt turn east as the low doesn't fully come up the coast like a Feb 1983 did.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The phase that far south is an outlier and unlikely IMHO...but again, even if that happens, we got 15-20" of snow this run. It has to happen EVEN further south for us to get screwed. Dendrite got 10" of this run.

You know yourself that the n edge would be sharper than that, though....I mean, look at Feb of last year, when the EURO tried to hit the region pretty good at like day 2, nevermind 6.5.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The phase that far south is an outlier and unlikely IMHO...but again, even if that happens, we got 15-20" of snow this run. It has to happen EVEN further south for us to get screwed. Dendrite got 10" of this run.

Where did you get the "2'+" from.....15-20" definitely is more like it.

[ORH_wxman]

You know yourself that the n edge would be sharper than that, though....I mean, look at Feb of last year, when the EURO tried to hit the region pretty good at like day 2, nevermind 6.5.

The block isn't the same as Feb 5-6 last year...so no, it wouldn't be as sharp. We don't have a big high to the north or a huge vortex over Quebec like Feb 5-6 last year.

We can certainly miss this too far SE, but it won't be because of a block from hell with an unfortunate PV lobe like last year...it will be because this storm doesn't phase and most people miss out anyway except maybe NC and SE VA.

[ORH_wxman]

Where did you get the "2'+" from.....15-20" definitely is more like it.

Well it gives me 2" of qpf...at 12/13 to 1 ratios, I would see 2 feet. But it doesn't matter anyway, semantics when talking about 19" or 24" for the most part. All on a D5-6 solution that is unlikely to verify.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The block isn't the same as Feb 5-6 last year...so no, it wouldn't be as sharp. We don't have a big high to the north or a huge vortex over Quebec like Feb 5-6 last year.

We can certainly miss this too far SE, but it won't be because of a block from hell with an unfortunate PV lobe like last year...it will be because this storm doesn't phase and most people miss out anyway except maybe NC and SE VA.

Well it gives me 2" of qpf...at 12/13 to 1 ratios, I would see 2 feet. But it doesn't matter anyway, semantics when talking about 19" or 24" for the most part. All on a D5-6 solution that is unlikely to verify.

Thx.

[ORH_wxman]

Thx.

La Nina is your friend in this setup...it will tend to make everything want to develop further north and east despite the blocking. Doesn't mean we are going to get crushed...but it certainly helps.

The Atlantic has owned La Nina so far this year, but the Nina still has influence...the westerlies are still a bit potent. I would like to be in Boston more than any other major city for this threat because of that. This has a decent chance of doing a Norfolk to BOS hook. Maybe its more amped...better for me in ORH, but I'm a bit skeptical of these hugely amped up solutions.

[40/70 Benchmark]

La Nina is your friend in this setup...it will tend to make everything want to develop further north and east despite the blocking. Doesn't mean we are going to get crushed...but it certainly helps.

The Atlantic has owned La Nina so far this year, but the Nina still has influence...the westerlies are still a bit potent. I would like to be in Boston more than any other major city for this threat because of that. This has a decent chance of doing a Norfolk to BOS hook. Maybe its more amped...better for me in ORH, but I'm a bit skeptical of these hugely amped up solutions.

Gee, why would you be sketical of March 1993, 100-miles east, in a strong la Nina @ day 5.5....I say lock it.

[A-L-E-X]

La Nina is your friend in this setup...it will tend to make everything want to develop further north and east despite the blocking. Doesn't mean we are going to get crushed...but it certainly helps.

The Atlantic has owned La Nina so far this year, but the Nina still has influence...the westerlies are still a bit potent. I would like to be in Boston more than any other major city for this threat because of that. This has a decent chance of doing a Norfolk to BOS hook. Maybe its more amped...better for me in ORH, but I'm a bit skeptical of these hugely amped up solutions.

20" plus inches for Boston if we take the euro verbatim. Im nervous about surface temps though. Well for down here anyway lol.

No hooks please, lets make this a widespread Richmond to NE hit with every place in between Just make it a March 1993 scenario with widespread heavy snows but tracking 150 miles east of where that one did

oh, and a Dec 1992 type stall would be nice too

[A-L-E-X]

Gee, why would you be sketical of March 1993, 100-miles east, in a strong la Nina @ day 5.5....I say lock it.

The other good thing is long outlooks seem to enhance blocking as we head into January. Those calls for a mild January might have been a bit premature.

Maybe those older la nina analogs will have some merit

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm skeptical of the huge amped up solutions like we are seeing from the EC right now...despite it being the best model. I would love for them to verify because the 12z run gave me 30" and this run gives me 20"+...but we still have pretty potent westerlies from the Nina....the ridge is very strong but all this wanted to move east despite the block....without the Nina and the block, this type of phase would probably send the low up the Hudson Valley.

We'll have to see how this plays out in the next 48 hours, because my hunch is that the EC is MORE correct than than the GFS or other solutions, but not 100% correct...i.e. we see a 75/25 solution in favor of the EC which is obviously east. DT and I talked about on the radio show tonight how far east the ridge was in the rockies...which doesn't allow for many westerly solutions.

Congrats Phil....again.

[ORH_wxman]

Congrats Phil....again.

Could very well be.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Could very well be.

That would be an amazing screwing over the course of the past year.....MA 3 or 4 times......NYC once, you once, W MA and E NY twice, down east ME once and now maybe CC twice.

Throw in the upslope and LE circle jerks and I'm on an island of FU.

[ORH_wxman]

That would be an amazing screwing over the course of the past year.....MA 3 or 4 times......NYC once, you once, W MA and E NY twice, down east ME once and now maybe CC twice.

Throw in the upslope and LE circle jerks and I'm on an island of FU.

It will even out...it always does. You'll get a few Dec 29, 1976s or Dec 1981s or Dec 1961s in a parade much more than you deserve for that short a span. Its just the way weather works. It comes back to climo but sometimes it does it in violent manners (ala late 80s here then the monster HECS blitz of the mid 90s).

[Logan11]

Better to say the higher terrain of W MA and E NY... The Mid/Upper HV got screwed also. ALB and GFL are as hard up as you. KALB itself hasn't had an above normal or above snowfall season since 2003-2004.

That would be an amazing screwing over the course of the past year.....MA 3 or 4 times......NYC once, you once, W MA and E NY twice, down east ME once and now maybe CC twice.

Throw in the upslope and LE circle jerks and I'm on an island of FU.

[ORH_wxman]

Better to say the higher terrain of W MA and E NY... The Mid/Upper HV got screwed also. ALB and GFL are as hard up as you.

You are on life support right now for this system. Hopefully I do not follow. What a terrible start to the season for most of us except the Cape.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It will even out...it always does. You'll get a few Dec 29, 1976s or Dec 1981s or Dec 1961s in a parade much more than you deserve for that short a span. Its just the way weather works. It comes back to climo but sometimes it does it in violent manners (ala late 80s here then the monster HECS blitz of the mid 90s).

Yea, I know.... I just wish this would end. lol

[ENYsnow]

Better to say the higher terrain of W MA and E NY... The Mid/Upper HV got screwed also. ALB and GFL are as hard up as you. KALB itself hasn't had an above normal or above snowfall season since 2003-2004.

Yeah ALB made out decent with the first storm last february and then got screwed with the second while you were pushing 4 feet lol. If we miss this next storm we will likely go into January with under 5 inches for the season.

[codfishsnowman]

How many runs in a row has the euro had a big hit for most of sne? correct me if i am wrong but has it not been several runs and the swings w or e have not be hundreds of miles either right?

[Logan11]

It looks like " thread the needle" to get a big snowstorm here. If it bombs farther south we may be too far north/west for the best, but at least get something. If it waits to develop later more like the GGEM then the whole thing may miss us to the east.

I just looked at the Euro QPF maps though and it is still a very nice hit here...certainly a foot +. But I only have one model on my side so far.

You are on life support right now for this system. Hopefully I do not follow. What a terrible start to the season for most of us except the Cape.

[ORH_wxman]

I will say it now...its still early and I could be completely wrong...but this looks like another longitude storm. But I think its west of the last one. Still would like to be in BOS for this over ORH...but maybe my tune will change in 24-36 hours.

I think the longitude of NE will help in this...the ridge is very far east.