Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's certainly better than a weak out to sea piece of crap ... makes for an exciting storm even if some have p-type issues.

If that 50\50 blocks this from getting here, than I'd rather no storm....I'm sick of that.

[Logan11]

Uh oh ..sharp wsw to ene cutoff and .1" qpf in ALB maybe. LOL

Jackpot looks to be from Ray to ORH county on the Euro...2 feet plus.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Jackpot looks to be from Ray to ORH county on the Euro...2 feet plus.

Will, what are your thoughts regarding the pig low trending more stubborn; are you concerned about this pulling a Feb 2010.....

[weatherwiz]

The whole eastern US does lol

Oh beautiful!

Man...I can't wait to start working in a few weeks so I can get the data from SV

Definitely nice to hear the Euro is another sick bomb...still want to see if this solution is still presented to us come Friday night.

[dendrite]

I still have my warning criteria.

[weatherwiz]

Euro out to 144 on EWALL now...very nice 500mb look...for my personally I'd like to see it a bit more NW but I'll certainly take this. It also doesn't appear as if we'd have much in the way of mixing issues anywhere either...unless something is occurring between 144 and 168 that I obviously can't see on EWALL.

[CTWeatherFreak]

does central ct get any love on this run?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not sure about 2'+, but it's def 1-2'........I suspect the trend east may continue for a bit, but that run was perfect for me....got my 50 mi shift east from 12z.

[weatherwiz]

does central ct get any love on this run?

Oh yeah!

[Logan11]

Well hopefully it will work out for those of us from here to NH..... I knew when I moved wnw of ALB that I'd be out of range for some of the big Mid Atlantic bombs. 3/1983 and1/ 1996 come to mind that this area had very little while I got hit good below ALB. But I have much more consistent snowcover here.

I still have my warning criteria.

[ORH_wxman]

Will, what are your thoughts regarding the pig low trending more stubborn; are you concerned about this pulling a Feb 2010.....

No, I'm not. It may try to cut off pretty far south, but even in that case (like this run), it still bombs us...it has a very wide circulation to the northeast of the low. I' get worried if we started seeing this get cuttoff over south carolina or Georgia or something.

[nzucker]

Euro out to 144 on EWALL now...very nice 500mb look...for my personally I'd like to see it a bit more NW but I'll certainly take this. It also doesn't appear as if we'd have much in the way of mixing issues anywhere either...unless something is occurring between 144 and 168 that I obviously can't see on EWALL.

Looks like the 0C 850-line is offshore. I'd think any warmth would be in the BL given wind direction but you'd definitely stay all snow on this track, Paul.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The silly thing is of the main precip is moving in now towards 132 hrs this stupid storm is still 5.5 days away. It was only 5 days away yesterday!

I hope the whole Ec gets snow but I'm sure all of you feel like I do in the sense that a d4-5 bullseye is like the scarlet letter of weather weenies. Everyone else knows you've been ******

[nzucker]

No, I'm not. It may try to cut off pretty far south, but even in that case (like this run), it still bombs us...it has a very wide circulation to the northeast of the low. I' get worried if we started seeing this get cuttoff over south carolina or Georgia or something.

Damn +PNA is a killer

[weatherwiz]

Looks like the 0C 850-line is offshore. I'd think any warmth would be in the BL given wind direction but you'd definitely stay all snow on this track, Paul.

Yeah I'm definitely not worried about any type of mixing issues here, in fact I highly doubt we see a solution occur that would even threaten that here, I think it's either all snow or not storm.

But even if we saw some warmth in the BL in any part of the region unless it's some pretty decent warmth (mid 30's or higher) given how this looks I still think the majority of precip would be snow, just the rate and intensity of the precip would probably be too much for precip to change...maybe some slight mixing but nothing extreme enough to screw things over.

[40/70 Benchmark]

No, I'm not. It may try to cut off pretty far south, but even in that case (like this run), it still bombs us...it has a very wide circulation to the northeast of the low. I' get worried if we started seeing this get cuttoff over south carolina or Georgia or something.

That seems like a long shot; I think the implications of this further south capture would be less wind here....so Tip can do a naked "power" dance.

DT nailed this trend; he know it that it would start bombing further sw.

[ORH_wxman]

does central ct get any love on this run?

You get nuked this run with 1-2 feet.

[weatherwiz]

Look at the dry air on the backside of this...pretty impressive

[Sn0waddict]

does central ct get any love on this run?

All of CT does very well in terms of QPF.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's true that we are still at day 5.5 from our period of impact, since it is slowing, but what that slower evoloution also entails is a more protracted life span of the storm.... such that the crucial genesis of the beast is now well within the ECM's wheelhouse.

[nzucker]

That seems like a long shot; I think the implications of this further south capture would be less wind here....so Tip can do a naked "power" dance.

DT nailed this trend; he know it that it would start bombing further sw.

Yeah we need this storm to bomb a little later to get the maximum possible QPF towards NYC and SNE. Usually when the H5 low closes off and the surface low occurs bombogenesis is where you get the heaviest axis of precipitation, and it definitely looks like Southern NJ into MD would be the hot spot along with SE VA for this event on 0z ECM. RIC/ORF get close to 30" on the 0z ECM, simply amazing.

[Logan11]

This kind of scenario usually has the sharp north cutoff..or wsw to ene. They get totally occluded and the reform ENE further off the coast. Someone gets screwed. Maybe poor Andy in GFL or the guys in ME ...HAH or maybe me...'

'

That seems like a long shot; I think the implications of this further south capture would be less wind here....so Tip can do a naked "power" dance.

DT nailed this trend; he know it that it would start bombing further sw.

[weatherwiz]

Well I'll be going to bed fairly happy and still cautiously optimistic but loving some of the trends on tonight's 12z run. Sucks I have to work tomorrow at 10:30 AM but hopefully I can be home by 2:00-3:00 PM.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah we need this storm to bomb a little later to get the maximum possible QPF towards NYC and SNE. Usually when the H5 low closes off and the surface low occurs bombogenesis is where you get the heaviest axis of precipitation, and it definitely looks like Southern NJ into MD would be the hot spot along with SE VA for this event on 0z ECM. RIC/ORF get close to 30" on the 0z ECM, simply amazing.

We know that won't happen. lol

Will said we we get 2'+, but it looked more like 15-20" to me.

[Logan11]

That's pretty anomalous ..watch that shift north. Hmm could they possibly be hit that way two years in a row?

event on 0z ECM. RIC/ORF get close to 30" on the 0z ECM, simply amazing.

[Sn0waddict]

The silly thing is of the main precip is moving in now towards 132 hrs this stupid storm is still 5.5 days away. It was only 5 days away yesterday!

I hope the whole Ec gets snow but I'm sure all of you feel like I do in the sense that a d4-5 bullseye is like the scarlet letter of weather weenies. Everyone else knows you've been ******

Soon enough we might be calling this the new years storm

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah we need this storm to bomb a little later to get the maximum possible QPF towards NYC and SNE. Usually when the H5 low closes off and the surface low occurs bombogenesis is where you get the heaviest axis of precipitation, and it definitely looks like Southern NJ into MD would be the hot spot along with SE VA for this event on 0z ECM. RIC/ORF get close to 30" on the 0z ECM, simply amazing.

SNE gets bombed with pretty heavy precip because there is cyclogenesis going on northeast of the main low center....its similar to Dec '92 in that aspect...that low stalled near Delmarva like this one did but eventually a new low formed NE of that and the dynamics of that produce prolific qpf up north...its why on the Euro maps you see the monster slug of qpf going into SNE while philly and NJ aren't getting quite as much at the same time....its all about dynamics for qpf, not where the actual low is (though most of the time you can use the low position as a gauge for qpf...but in this case its a little deceptive.)

[CTWeatherFreak]

Well I'll be going to bed fairly happy and still cautiously optimistic but loving some of the trends on tonight's 12z run. Sucks I have to work tomorrow at 10:30 AM but hopefully I can be home by 2:00-3:00 PM.

To me, a euro run like tonight is about the closest this adult will ever come to those nervous happy feelings we had as kids the as we went to bed the night before christmas! Alot to still be ironed out re the model chaos, but at least the euro has been rock steady.

[nzucker]

SNE gets bombed with pretty heavy precip because there is cyclogenesis going on northeast of the main low center....its similar to Dec '92 in that aspect...that low stalled near Delmarva like this one did but eventually a new low formed NE of that and the dynamics of that produce prolific qpf up north...its why on the Euro maps you see the monster slug of qpf going into SNE while philly and NJ aren't getting quite as much at the same time....its all about dynamics for qpf, not where the actual low is (though most of the time you can use the low position as a gauge for qpf...but in this case its a little deceptive.)

Do you find the two low scenario plausible, Will?

[ORH_wxman]

Do you find the two low scenario plausible, Will?

Sure why not? You cant really think it in terms of "two lows"...a lot of storms have that but probably less defined. When you see elongated low centers, its really just an area of cyclogensis occurring in another region almost as much as the center of the low.

I do think these Euro solutions are a bit amped up and wrapped up...so I don't thunk we'll see this verify, but you have to think of the low center as a fluid moving object, not a set thing that tracks...lows actually continuously redevelop along the line of best dynamics...they don't "track"...but its much easier to say track than redevelop.