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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Not much I hate more than looking at GEM graphics, but that looks like another cc special to me.

Yeah but this early in the year with a storm that big coastal areas (down here) would struggle with temps.

Speakign of which very odd night tonight, temps 34-35 but the ground is flash freezing under clear skies. Just watched my neighbors dog take a dixie like you read about!

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Since Kev has been fast asleep, with visions of njwx dancing through his head for about the last 4 hrs, I'll take his job:

this is is a really bad post / point you made

The weenie known as JI is asserting things Look "BAD" becuase he sees 1 thing and 1 thing only...

Unless there is massive 3.00" of liquid over his back yard where his Momma moomy and Dadda live it is a " diasater"

the Ggem looks Relatively good

I am NOT worried about the Precip shield at all. 90% of the time

a southern Gulf low coming up the coast passing 50- 100 miles east of HATTERAS Is going to have significant precip with it

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Yeah but this early in the year with a storm that big coastal areas (down here) would struggle with temps.

There is no way on the face of God's green earth that the Cape would struggle with ptype issues on the GGEM setup. Maybe at the very onset (ala 12/26/04)...but they would get absolutely destroyed once the serious stuff came in.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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There is no way on the face of God's green earth that the Cape would struggle with ptype issues on the GGEM setup. Maybe at the very onset (ala 12/26/04)...but they would get absolutely destroyed once the serious stuff came in.

Yeah I didnt look that closely - its the GGEM it has as much a chance of verifying as the 2012 prophecies.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

It's the GGEM but that looks like it's forecasting some mix/rain down here.

Most models are too warm this time of year down there and around the Cape...its like when the models that were bringing the CCB back into the Cape for this last system but as a 38-40F rainstorm and some argued thats why it wouldn't be good on the Cape...while it started off as rain very early, it quickly went to heavy snow once the serious stuff came in.

Scott (Coastalwx) and I were talking about it earlier today on the phone. We see the models put out these sfc temps way too warm when the wet bulb zero height it like 200 feet aloft. That's when its much better to use experience and the soundings vs the raw model output.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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One of the things being lost is the amount of AMDAR data not going into some of the modeling right now. People forget thousands of flights have been cancelled and surely the lack of that data is having some effect or influence.

So before anyone goes ape if the EC moves one way or the other tonight remember it's likely missing some numbers.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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Most models are too warm this time of year down there and around the Cape...its like when the models that were bringing the CCB back into the Cape for this last system but as a 38-40F rainstorm and some argued thats why it wouldn't be good on the Cape...while it started off as rain very early, it quickly went to heavy snow once the serious stuff came in.

Scott (Coastalwx) and I were talking about it earlier today on the phone. We see the models put out these sfc temps way too warm when the wet bulb zero height it like 200 feet aloft. That's when its much better to use experience and the soundings vs the raw model output.

Will I was just busting, the GGEM graphics are horrid. I'm not sure it's ever had me in the snow even in the heart of winter!

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radarman

radarman

Posted
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Most of us are more worried about that than too far west. DT and I discussed that a bit on the radio show...the ridge is pretty far east, so that combined with blocked Atlantic will make something well west almost impossible.

You said it. GFS really struggling to induce any ridging as it tries to take the s/w negative. Ocean doesn't seem to want to put up a fight, and the result is a lot of easterly motion.

I'd sign for 2" right now just to get off the schneid.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Most models are too warm this time of year down there and around the Cape...its like when the models that were bringing the CCB back into the Cape for this last system but as a 38-40F rainstorm and some argued thats why it wouldn't be good on the Cape...while it started off as rain very early, it quickly went to heavy snow once the serious stuff came in.

Scott (Coastalwx) and I were talking about it earlier today on the phone. We see the models put out these sfc temps way too warm when the wet bulb zero height it like 200 feet aloft. That's when its much better to use experience and the soundings vs the raw model output.

Yeah I definitely read too much into surface temperatures at the onset of the event and the wind direction instead of considering the colder 850s and the heavy dynamics for the Cape in this past ocean storm. I've just starting reading some of the more serious literature on CCB phenomena so I guess that's helping me understand some of the factors at play in being more aggressive for the Cape in this scenario. Of course most forecasts from TV were in the low range and I know Skier and I went with 2-4" and 1-3" which busted horribly. I have been conservative lately but I think the Cape would get a great hit on the XMAS storm showed by GGEM and many of the other easterly models; they're probably in better shape than the rest of us if the H5 capture occurs a smidge too late and the surface low has already escaped the major cities.

I am really a bit frustrated though...initially it looked as if we'd all receive ample overrunning precipitation regardless of the coastal formation/phase with a bowling ball type southern system, and now it seems as if once again we're relying on a very fragile phase being the difference between nothing and a snowstorm. The extreme -NAO/-AO block is depriving us of the normal moderate events New England and NYC's NW suburbs would see in a La Niña like the SW flow events and clippers...instead we are playing the high risk/high reward game as we battle suppression from the overwhelming block and mediocre Pacific.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Will I was just busting, the GGEM graphics are horrid. I'm not sure it's ever had me in the snow even in the heart of winter!

I wasn't actually implying you were thinking it was true...just sort of throwing that post out there for others to see....model sfc temps are probably the single worst parameter on them for verification outside of qpf.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Yeah I definitely read too much into surface temperatures at the onset of the event and the wind direction instead of considering the colder 850s and the heavy dynamics for the Cape in this past ocean storm. I've just starting reading some of the more serious literature on CCB phenomena so I guess that's helping me understand some of the factors at play in being more aggressive for the Cape in this scenario. Of course most forecasts from TV were in the low range and I know Skier and I went with 2-4" and 1-3" which busted horribly. I have been conservative lately but I think the Cape would get a great hit on the XMAS storm showed by GGEM and many of the other easterly models; they're probably in better shape than the rest of us if the H5 capture occurs a smidge too late and the surface low has already escaped the major cities.

I am really a bit frustrated though...initially it looked as if we'd all receive ample overrunning precipitation regardless of the coastal formation/phase with a bowling ball type southern system, and now it seems as if once again we're relying on a very fragile phase being the difference between nothing and a snowstorm. The extreme -NAO/-AO block is depriving us of the normal moderate events New England and NYC's NW suburbs would see in a La Niña like the SW flow events and clippers...instead we are playing the high risk/high reward game as we battle suppression from the overwhelming block and mediocre Pacific.

Well I think its definitely good you are reading up on CCB and TROWAL type features. Look at model soundings too...they are usually a heck of a lot more useful than the sfc temp output.

When I saw the wet bulb zero height literally just overhead on the Cape with 40F surface temps and a huge CCB trying to back in on some of those runs, that was immediately a red flag. That screams 32F snow...and the Cape even got lower than that with many spots getting into the 29-31F range.

When there is significant cold air aloft just off the deck, you have to be worried. It wasn't a typical torching wind for the Cape either, so that's another thing to look at. A N and NNW wind on the Cape with a CCB will almost always be snow regardless of what models say unless its just too warm aloft.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

I wasn't actually implying you were thinking it was true...just sort of throwing that post out there for others to see....model sfc temps are probably the single worst parameter on them for verification outside of qpf.

Ghosts of Christmas' past here. I forget the last El Nino year but it seemed like leaving the car running for an extra minute could turn me to rain here.

In reality the 45 degree water effect is overstated. It's snowed a bunch of times in the last few years early to hammer home the point.

Take a look at the AMDAR stuff, interested to hear the consensus. If the EC chokes the chicken on this one/the volatility over the last week or so...can it be partially explained by missing data?

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