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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted

The fact that the GFS is playing catch up with the trough for tomorrow for NNE and eastern SNE, then that is a red flag that the GFS is not seeing something correctly even 24 hours out. The QPF continues to increase with the GFS which now shows 2-5 perhaps 3-6" of snow now for the Cape. NAM shows the same thing.

Possibly, but let's be honest, you're just balls to the wall for the inverted trough tomorrow and wanted to talk about it in this thread.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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Correct me if I'm wrong but the energy diving in over MN on the 0z GFS is squashing the system out to sea. Where as the euro consolidates the energy leading to the divergence in outcome. Will was discussing this on the show but I was curious if this is what he was looking at.

Back up 18 hours and you'll see a little vortmax just north of the dakotas, that's the trainwreck.

If you track it down and through it hits the base of the trough as more energy is loading down. The GFS really spins it up, but by the time the rest of the energy comes in it's snuck NE. Probably an error to be honest.

Assuming this scenario is right and the NAM being on board tells me it's probably close, we should see a low form offshore and get wrapped up. Probably along the lines of the old EC/GGEM just further east. I'm thinking 12z EC Ensemble...

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

This is a serious question...

How can people say what one model will show when it hasn't even began to initialize yet? What is everyone's basis for that?

I went by the fact that UKMET compared 72 to ECMWF 84. Now I don't have the 84 hours UKMET to compare apples to apples but frequently they show trends similarly.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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IMO.. the gfs looks way better.. it actually has a major storm now...

The way I look at it, it can't be worse than it is now... give it time.. this is prefect for 114 out.. did you really want to be in the bullseye 5 days out?

No but I also dont want to be 700 miles from it either.

:)

wxwiz, that's just people having fun. Kind of a guess really. The Ensemble per scott was near the BM, so the op may end up following suit.

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weathafella

weathafella

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No but I also dont want to be 700 miles from it either.

:)

wxwiz, that's just people having fun. Kind of a guess really. The Ensemble per scott was near the BM, so the op may end up following suit.

For GFS at 120-132 hours, I think that's just about where we want to be. Think every big storm we've had in the past decade. GFS whiffed at this time frame including Jan 2005 which it didn't stop whiffing until 36 hours out.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Well the trend continues. Can we get a radio show to talk about the bruins season and just put an end to the misery now?

The UKMET images are on the other thread, it's way out to sea. Seems a little apparent now it's all or nothing, it gets captured or it gets away and it's like a day at the races, that horse has legs.

Cmoooon trickle down trough!

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Well the trend continues. Can we get a radio show to talk about the bruins season and just put an end to the misery now?

The UKMET images are on the other thread, it's way out to sea. Seems a little apparent now it's all or nothing, it gets captured or it gets away and it's like a day at the races, that horse has legs.

Cmoooon trickle down trough!

No one's seen UKMET past 72 hours.

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JJBASHB

JJBASHB

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Back up 18 hours and you'll see a little vortmax just north of the dakotas, that's the trainwreck.

If you track it down and through it hits the base of the trough as more energy is loading down. The GFS really spins it up, but by the time the rest of the energy comes in it's snuck NE. Probably an error to be honest.

Assuming this scenario is right and the NAM being on board tells me it's probably close, we should see a low form offshore and get wrapped up. Probably along the lines of the old EC/GGEM just further east. I'm thinking 12z EC Ensemble...

Cool, thanks for the reply. From the sounds of it I have to agree on the all or nothing solution.

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

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Back up 18 hours and you'll see a little vortmax just north of the dakotas, that's the trainwreck.

If you track it down and through it hits the base of the trough as more energy is loading down. The GFS really spins it up, but by the time the rest of the energy comes in it's snuck NE. Probably an error to be honest.

Assuming this scenario is right and the NAM being on board tells me it's probably close, we should see a low form offshore and get wrapped up. Probably along the lines of the old EC/GGEM just further east. I'm thinking 12z EC Ensemble...

Snowman.gif

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted

I went by the fact that UKMET compared 72 to ECMWF 84. Now I don't have the 84 hours UKMET to compare apples to apples but frequently they show trends similarly.

I believe it was last Thursday night when we saw the GFS go OTS and then the UKMET followed suit and we just about "knew" where the Euro was going to go. Might not be as big a shift as it was last week, but I'm with you on this one.

Off to bed before any bad news.

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