Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

[weathafella]

Trying for the reach around.....should produce some modest qpf in eastern areas and perhaps give outer cape good snows.

[DeVries]

Closer but will probably JUST miss unless it does a reach around ala 12/26/04...possible.

Was that related to the Texas snowstorm?

[dendrite]

Trying for the reach around.....should produce some modest qpf in eastern areas and perhaps give outer cape good snows.

It's going to have to hook a lot. 120 is pretty far SE.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Closer but will probably JUST miss unless it does a reach around ala 12/26/04...possible.

There's a LOT of energy loading down into the trough.

[SnowMan]

Trying for the reach around.....should produce some modest qpf in eastern areas and perhaps give outer cape good snows.

I have been trying to catch up, but does this mean it will barely hit us?

[weathafella]

Was that related to the Texas snowstorm?

Yes.

[weatherwiz]

Just crazy

0z:

12z:

[weathafella]

It's going to have to hook a lot. 120 is pretty far SE.

Yes. Not going to make it this run but trend is good and at this range a bit encouraging.

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

Massive height changes on 0z op GFS. Def better trends. If euro holds consistent, at least sort of bc it should back off some, reallyhave to weight forecast a lot more to euro given consistency.

[dryslot]

It's going to have to hook a lot. 120 is pretty far SE.

Not going to cut it this run

[OKpowdah]

Heights are pretty suppressed along the east coast. There's some more energy left behind through NY and the Great Lakes which doesn't help much

[Tropopause_Fold]

It's a biggie...just well offshore. Quite the amplified long wave pattern though.

[OKpowdah]

That pesky lead s/w messes up everything

[Clinch Leatherwood]

how do you guys see it so early?

[DomNH]

Total whiff, but at least it trended a lot better at H5...at this range that's all you can ask for.

[weatherwiz]

Energy needs to go negatively tilted a bit sooner than it does, looks like it doesn't do so until it's off the GA coast.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

This is the rub with these deals, it either gets captured or it doesnt.

Kevin on Fox 25 says he thinks it will be too far offshore.

[weathafella]

Compare to EC at 84 hours....this is UKMET 72

[Tropopause_Fold]

how do you guys see it so early?

$

[OKpowdah]

So actually the NAM and GFS look like they're in very good agreement. The Euro is alone now with it's handling of the northern stream

[ROOSTA]

WAY Slooower

[Clinch Leatherwood]

$

I've got to pay you to see it early

Wright?

[weathafella]

My bet is Euro is significantly further east tonight.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

So actually the NAM and GFS look like they're in very good agreement. The Euro is alone now with it's handling of the northern stream

Well not sure on that, once we see the 0z I think we can start to really draw some conclusions.

How is the UKIE

[weathafella]

This is the rub with these deals, it either gets captured or it doesnt.

Kevin on Fox 25 says he thinks it will be too far offshore.

None of them have any idea at this point....

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

00z GFS is better, shows the amplified solution, except about too far offshore, develops impressive comma head out to sea. I expect the GFS will come into better agreement with the foreign models within the 72 hours of reaching the east coast.

[DomNH]

My bet is Euro is significantly further east tonight.

I'd take that bet.

But as long as it has the 1-3'' for tomorrow night, it'll be a good run.

[weatherwiz]

Would like to see the ridge axis a bit further west than where it is too...it's virtually over the Northern Plains

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Well I think the GFS is too far east for the same reasons I mentioned earlier with the northern stream but whether it's enough to matter? That low isn't even close, we're nearing NOGAPs miss now as in fogettaboutit if the EC goes wide right.

[dryslot]

I've got to pay you to see it early

Wright?

SV