Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

[40/70 Benchmark]

I thought people were saying it cuts west of NYC? That would mean a SE wind for everyone

It's a swfe....obviously tainted, but at this stage, I'll take a mod event anyway I can come across one.

[Ginx snewx]

Stalls and occludes over Philly...nice. So we have the EC and its ensembles with a BM hit and a scrape E of the BM, respectively. And we have the GFS amped up and bombing to our SW and moving inland. I like where we sit right now for d6-7.

Talk about messed up Meteorology, the 18 Z is joke, I agrreewith you but cripes what can you believe 60 hours out, nothing. When looking at the big picture it looks good and that's hope.

[CT Rain]

I heard the same thing for tonights OTS storm

I think the xmas storm has a lot more potential than today's ever did.

[CT Rain]

Talk about messed up Meteorology, the 18 Z is joke, I agrreewith you but drupes what can you believe 60 hours out, nothing. When Looking at the big picture it looks good and that's hope.

Not really. Verification scores are just as good as the 12z/00z counterparts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the xmas storm has a lot more potential than today's ever did.

Yea, lot less moving pieces to come together.

[nzucker]

I thought people were saying it cuts west of NYC? That would mean a SE wind for everyone

The surface would be pretty warm this run, especially out towards LI and eastern New England, with the maritime flow. Boston looks to be getting snow at 156 on the 850mb map but the surface says it's actually rain as 2m temps are probably 38/39F. It's a total oddball solution although not impossible if the low closes off too early over the Midwest. I think this is our best threat of the month but everything is still on the table now.

[nzucker]

It's a swfe....obviously tainted, but at this stage, I'll take a mod event anyway I can come across one.

You'd probably do very well on this solution, Ray.

[CT Rain]

Yea, lot less moving pieces to come together.

Definitely a more classic pattern.

This event's potential was a long shot but certainly had the potential to deliver if things worked out just right.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I think the xmas storm has a lot more potential than today's ever did.

Yup. The PNA spike, coupled with the -NAO/AO look quite favorable for development. I also don't buy into a cutter or runner. This will either be a hit or a whiff.

[CT Rain]

You'd probably do very well on this solution, Ray.

He'd probably get like a third snow, a third sleet, a third rain.

With a track like that (at that strength) you're going to be bringing in tons of warm air around 700mb and in the boundary layer too. Not to mention one hell of a dry slot.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You'd probably do very well on this solution, Ray.

I agree. ...Dec 16, 2007 written all over that.

[CT Rain]

Yup. The PNA spike, coupled with the -NAO/AO look quite favorable for development. I also don't buy into a cutter or runner. This will either be a hit or a whiff.

It's still 6 days out so all options are on the table... including a cutter. Odds are stronger for a hit or whiff though.

[A-L-E-X]

It's a swfe....obviously tainted, but at this stage, I'll take a mod event anyway I can come across one.

Same lol-- anything is better than OTS

[CT Rain]

I agree. ...Dec 16, 2007 written all over that.

I think the difference is 12/16/07 had a nasty damming high to the north which really helped us... especially you... here we don't have anything near that so the flood gates of warmth would open in the CP. I don't think this solution is likely but it's probably not all that great verbatim.

[dendrite]

I thought people were saying it cuts west of NYC? That would mean a SE wind for everyone

+SN and a strong NE wind up here. Rapid pressure falls southwest of here on this run will help keep a more northerly component. It's early though. I'd be happy to just get some precip in here.

[nzucker]

I think the difference is 12/16/07 had a nasty damming high to the north which really helped us... especially you... here we don't have anything near that so the flood gates of warmth would open in the CP. I don't think this solution is likely but it's probably not all that great verbatim.

Yeah the arctic air seems to be mostly behind the storm...we start out with slightly below normal temperatures but the warmth over Eastern Canada means we don't have a traditional cold pool over Quebec to save us from an ugly track of the SLP. We really have to rely on the event tracking south of us to do well, except for NNE and places with big elevation in SNE.

[snowNH]

What's causing the 50/50 low to almost reform on the coast from Ohio and barrel up the coast?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the difference is 12/16/07 had a nasty damming high to the north which really helped us... especially you... here we don't have anything near that so the flood gates of warmth would open in the CP. I don't think this solution is likely but it's probably not all that great verbatim.

I was just thinking that I should have checked for that, but like you said, it's moot anyway.....not 10", but that would be near warning cirteria, here.

I also torched in Dec 16, 2007 eventually, too.

[nzucker]

He'd probably get like a third snow, a third sleet, a third rain.

With a track like that (at that strength) you're going to be bringing in tons of warm air around 700mb and in the boundary layer too. Not to mention one hell of a dry slot.

In this solution, the rich get richer. Heavy snow for western NY where they have already had record-breaking snowfall (I believe Syracuse is up to 71", its snowiest December ever)....basically nothing for DCA-NYC on this run with minor snow/sleet/rain mix in deprived places like Boston and Hartford. Really sad if this happens, would be a horrible way to close out 2010. Seeing another washed-out Christmas night would be terrible after all the Grinch storms we have had to endure in past years, especially knowing that the LES belts are going to cash in twice and continue their record setting season.

[CT Rain]

In this solution, the rich get richer. Heavy snow for western NY where they have already had record-breaking snowfall (I believe Syracuse is up to 71", its snowiest December ever)....basically nothing for DCA-NYC on this run with minor snow/sleet/rain mix in deprived places like Boston and Hartford. Really sad if this happens, would be a horrible way to close out 2010. Seeing another washed-out Christmas night would be terrible after all the Grinch storms we have had to endure in past years, especially knowing that the LES belts are going to cash in twice and consider their record setting season.

I think even NYC, Boston, and Hartford would get a decent front end thump of a couple inches before the pingers move in.

This is all assuming the 18z GFS is correct lol

[CT Rain]

I was just thinking that I should have checked for that, but like you said, it's moot anyway.....not 10", but that would be near warning cirteria, here.

I also torched in Dec 16, 2007 eventually, too.

Yeah you'd probably get like 5" of snow and then flip to a sustained period of windswept pingers as the coastal front oscillated just south of you for a little bit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Run is a win for all parties involved, a storm is still depicted; I'm off to a xmas gathering....see you at 00z.

[dendrite]

This is all assuming the 18z GFS is correct lol

Yeah...which it won't be. You can tell we're snow starved when we overly analyze the 144+ hr 18z GFS.

[CT Rain]

Yeah...which it won't be. You can tell we're snow starved when we overly analyze the 144+ hr 18z GFS.

It's sad.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah you'd probably get like 5" of snow and then flip to a sustained period of windswept pingers as the coastal front oscillated just south of you for a little bit.

Agreed.....it would eventually make it to rt 495.....this I think I can fathom more than a whiff because I don't see us being shut out through the month....I just don't.

[Damage In Tolland]

More posts on the 18z GFS than there was on the Euro..unreal

[A-L-E-X]

Not really. Verification scores are just as good as the 12z/00z counterparts.

I know people say that, but a few years ago on eastern I saw a graph showing that the 12z is the most accurate, followed by the 0z, then the 18z and the 6z bringing up the rear.

Also, I know that many mets have been calling for the GFS to only be run every 12 hours and to get rid of truncation.

[A-L-E-X]

I think even NYC, Boston, and Hartford would get a decent front end thump of a couple inches before the pingers move in.

This is all assuming the 18z GFS is correct lol

Agreed, in the main obs thread for that model, a pro met from DC was saying that even that run means 2-4 inches down there, followed by a brief period of rain then dryslot.

[40/70 Benchmark]

More posts on the 18z GFS than there was on the Euro..unreal

I think most were immersed in football at that particular time.

[dendrite]

I know people say that, but a few years ago on eastern I saw a graph showing that the 12z is the most accurate, followed by the 0z, then the 18z and the 6z bringing up the rear.

Also, I know that many mets have been calling for the GFS to only be run every 12 hours and to get rid of truncation.

There's no significant difference in the H5 scores anymore. The GFS doesn't truncate until after 192hr now so I'm not sure what the big stink is about that. It's all fantasy land anyways. I think people fail to understand how much satellite data goes into the models now compared to a decade ago. I did a research paper on this once and I surveyed the mets on this site (well...Eastern). There was a fairly even split on whether they found the off-hour runs useful so it depends on who you ask. Some of them are very adamant about their opinions too.

Here's the GFS cycle error decay for Nov 2010.