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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

I didn't employ the storm of the century as an analog, I merely made the point that the pressure gradient depicted on the 00z EURO was equal to it.

Do I expect that...of course not.

I wasn't referring to you...that was actually a real interesting post you made last night and was pretty cool to read. It's just the posts mentioning 1993 just b/c the Euro shows a mega bomb as does a few other models...how many times do we see models show a major bomb this far out only not to have it actually occur?

You'd almost think the storm is right on our fannies by some of the posts :lol:

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

One of the better AFD's written since Ekster and Walt have left

All scenarios give us snow..just remeber that before you start sawing off your limbs

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH THAT WE

WILL GET PRECIPITATED UPON...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BUT

AS FOR HOW MUCH AND WHERE AND WHAT TYPE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW

AT THIS TIME DUE TO AN AMAZING AMOUNT OF MODEL DISPARITY.

GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PAST FEW RUNS IN

WHIZZING THE STORM OUT TO SEA QUICKLY...GIVING US A SHOT OF SNOW

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS DID NOT HAVE THE BEST TRACK RECORD

HOWEVER WITH THIS PREVIOUS STORM AND ALL OF THE SNOW ON CAPE COD

YESTERDAY.

THE CANADIAN GGEM HAS BY FAR THE MOST PROLIFIC PRECIPITATION

AMOUNTS. ITS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO 977 MB SOUTH OF THE EASTERN

TIP OF LONG ISLAND. HEAVY SNOW WOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS ALL OF

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THE FRONT END...FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE TO

RAIN IN THE EASTERN THIRD OR HALF OF THE AREA WITH THIS SCENARIO

AND WARMING ABOVE 0C SUNDAY NIGHT. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW WOULD

OCCUR ON THE FRONT END. EASY TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THIS...EXCEPT

THAT IRONICALLY ALL OF THE GGEM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE WELL TO THE

EAST...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...THAN THE OPERATIONAL GGEM RUN.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE...WITH A LOW BOMBING TO 963 MB

OFF THE IMMEDIATE NEW JERSEY COAST...AND MUCH SLOWER THAN THE

OTHER MODELS WITH NO PRECIPITATION HERE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. IT TOO

WOULD GIVE A DUMPING OF SNOW ON THE FRONT END FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE

TO RAIN IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. ITS TWIST IS THAT THE

UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS THEN SLIDE EAST TO EXACTLY THE BENCHMARK OF

40N 70W CAUSING ANY RAIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY THROUGH

MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER AT THE MOMENT. WILL

HAVE TO MONITOR ITS TRENDS.

WATER VAPOR DOES SHOW A VERY DEEP TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

MODELS WILL HOPEFULLY COME TO MORE CONSENSUS WITH TIME AS IT MOVES

ON LAND. HOW EXACTLY THE NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH THIS SOUTHERN

STREAM SYSTEM REMAINS TO BE SEEN. HAVE UPPED POPS TO MID

50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW...SINCE IT IS STILL ABOUT 5 DAYS AWAY.

STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY AT SOME POINT WITH THIS STORM

SYSTEM.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

I wasn't referring to you...that was actually a real interesting post you made last night and was pretty cool to read. It's just the posts mentioning 1993 just b/c the Euro shows a mega bomb as does a few other models...how many times do we see models show a major bomb this far out only not to have it actually occur?

You'd almost think the storm is right on our fannies by some of the posts :lol:

Oh, ok.....I just knew that you read that post of mine last night and I worked all day today, so I didn't know others had been drawing the comparison.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Tells us all we need to know, IMO.....larger threat is a hugger rather than a whiff, at least at the moment.

Maybe it's because of last winter, but we seriously need to keep things in check. This could very well whiff...we just don't know. I do like the massive ridge out in the Rockies this time around, but it comes down to timing. It's just way to early to tell right now.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

Look at the 12z Euro at hr144, then at the 18z GFS at hr138, then back at the Euro. Now THAT is comedy.

Looks like the GFS really wants to make this thing a triple phaser, and because it just doesn't quite make it, it just ends up failing in the other direction. Tossing it for now.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Look at the 12z Euro at hr144, then at the 18z GFS at hr138, then back at the Euro. Now THAT is comedy.

Looks like the GFS really wants to make this thing a triple phaser, and because it just doesn't quite make it, it just ends up failing in the other direction. Tossing it for now.

The 12z Euro snow output gives N ORH county into SW NH over 30 inches of snow. :lol:

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

ive mentioned it about 18 times today :lol:

just reminscing though, i dont expect anything of that sort.

It's not really that big of a deal :lol:

I just feel that some people are going to run with that and start to expect something similar and then if the outcome doesn't happen or if the models shy away from somewhat of a similar solution they are going to suffer through as mental breakdown.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

OP runs can goof off at this stage of the game. People shoulndn't bash a model if it loses a storm within 132+ hours. I wouldn't. Anything can happen a this point.

Edit: what I mean is that if indeed this whiffs (not saying it will) then you shouldn't bash the euro. It's an op run, vulnerable to wild swings this far out.

Ens have been steadfast too and it inside 96 for genesis, my question remains, after watching the Euro for two decades I am having a hard time remembering when it lost a major pattern storm after five straight consistent runs, and I am talking About the intensity and 5. h setup,.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

He was the most worried about a whiff until today.

I have not been around at all with so much family in town, I thought Rev said no chance this even happens, Im confuzzled.

Ray what do you think, whats your gut saying?

I actually think both the GFS and the EURO are playing right into there weaknesses, and that the truth is somewhere in the middle.

Euro holding back energy and the GFS letting the sw escape too quickly out ahead of any potential phase.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Ens have been steadfast too and it inside 96 for genesis, my question remains, after watching the Euro for two decades I am having a hard time remembering when it lost a major pattern storm after five straight consistent runs, and I am talking About the intensity and 5. h setup,.

I know what you mean. Last week we had the euro saying no...at least this go around, we have it saying yes. Also a better pattern out west. It's gonna come down to timing as to whether this is an inv trough middle finger to Ray, or a full blown blizzard. There is definitely some issues to work out, and the middle finger is possible..but at least the overall pattern is better than last week. Time will tell if this translates to something worthwhile. I think I feel better this time around, but I'm fully aware it could fail.

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