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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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snowman21

snowman21

Posted
Posted

Well, I grew up in New London. Our aspirations there were to get sleet instead of rain..

Sadly this is too true. Had 2 or 3 inches in the '93 storm, then 2.5 inches of rain with a couple hours of sleet in between. I've found models to be too slow and not aggressive enough with the changeovers in coastal areas. This is where the pattern recognition comes in and the human forecaster can score an easy win over the computer models.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

It's snowed twice in a year, both retrograde type scenarios with precip moving in from the NE. Yet another 5-6+ day mega storm potentially going bye bye as we get closer should be no surprise. It's great that the EC still has it, probably not great that it has the support of the GGEM.

The GFS just joined El Capatain in going wider right then Scott Norwood after a bender.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Sure can but when was the last time it was dead wrong after five straight runs almost identical? Just asking, Will boycott the fookin radio show, just horrible JUJU LOL

OP runs can goof off at this stage of the game. People shoulndn't bash a model if it loses a storm within 132+ hours. I wouldn't. Anything can happen a this point.

Edit: what I mean is that if indeed this whiffs (not saying it will) then you shouldn't bash the euro. It's an op run, vulnerable to wild swings this far out.

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Kbosch

Kbosch

Posted
Posted

Totally different 18z run and setup than the most recent storm but eerily similar to the epic 00z ECM collapse (complete with radio show). Heavy heavy anxiety permeating from the weenies on the boards.whistle.gif

You mean the one where we had the storm for 2 runs and nothing more? A failure with this storm, from having it modeled for more runs and with an "easier" setup, would be a lot worse and much more unlikely.

And ha, yeah, we get it...radio show. Let's relax with that.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Took the low very close or just a hair east of the BM.

Thanks.

Let's hope. I feel the best shot is the SE 1/3 of NE back to Will and Kev up into SE NH and a touch of Maine. A track just outside the BM would get that done. I won't discount a miss though, don't like what the GFS just did here at all. I understand the teleconnections and all that but this isn't a particularly impressive southern s/w at all.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Wow...emotions are running higher than a 5 month old pregnant lady and this sucker is still 5+ days out. Gotta calm the emotions down a bit and stop throwing out '93 superstorm and all those comparisons, it's way too early. At this point if the models do indeed end end backing off and we see another OTS solution some people are going to heave heart attacks.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Wow...emotions are running higher than a 5 month old pregnant lady and this sucker is still 5+ days out. Gotta calm the emotions down a bit and stop throwing out '93 superstorm and all those comparisons, it's way too early. At this point if the models do indeed end end backing off and we see another OTS solution some people are going to heave heart attacks.

I didn't employ the storm of the century as an analog, I merely made the point that the pressure gradient depicted on the 00z EURO was equal to it.

Do I expect that...of course not.

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