Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

[Tropopause_Fold]

Seems like only from PYM southeast will see snow

Lol...quite unlikely I think.

Have to be careful around here now though with what you say...lots of fragile egos...post with caution. Lol.

[powderfreak]

Seems like only from PYM southeast will see snow

LOL he said southeast third of New England... not SNE. You are in the southern third of New England, Rev.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

We are a LONG ways out... this is still a day 6-7 event. We have 6 whole more days of this to go before we actually see reality... thats a lot of time for things to muck up.

While the EURO and GGEM are fun to look at, I still think eastern and southern areas are in the best spot... the ensemble means are telling.

Gonna' seem like an eternity. At least 8 more runs of the major models before I start telling friends and family a big storm is coming. I've learned my lessons with that!

[moneypitmike]

Phil will get it lol

Speaking of PHil--how's the snow on the Cape holding up? With those mid-upper 30's and high ratios, they may have the effect of Clark Griswold carving the Christmas turkey.

Now--back to the storm.

[snowNH]

I was actually just thinking.. imagine what this board would have been like during a March 1993

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I was actually just thinking.. imagine what this board would have been like during a March 1993

If thursdays 0z model runs are still showing a bomb I'm sure the server will begin having issues handling the traffic.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Speaking of PHil--how's the snow on the Cape holding up? With those mid-upper 30's and high ratios, they may have the effect of Clark Griswold carving the Christmas turkey.

Now--back to the storm.

haha. Probably better than your dusting is doing.

It's doing ok. Definitely compacted today.

[CoastalWx]

Yes.. I would like to hear dts thoughts.. what are your thoughts?

I think an OTS solution is less likely than last time around, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. At least we have a mechanism for amplification but it will depend on s/w timing as usual. I think the euro op seems like a western outlier, but it shows the potential for what can happen if we phase. The GFS on the other hand shows what happen when timing is fooked up. For now, I think the euro ensembles are reasonable to me. There is really not much you can say this far out. Canadian ensembles are waaaaaay east.

[snowNH]

I actually would like a r*dio sh*w though.. you can learn a lot from Wes dt and will on the setup

[ORH_wxman]

I'm glad the Euro gives me 2 feet of snow. But wake me when its another 4 days closer.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I'm glad the Euro gives me 2 feet of snow. But wake me when its another 4 days closer.

Age is making you wiser.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Anyone have that analog page for model progs? Could be interesting

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610analog.off.gif

[moneypitmike]

If thursdays 0z model runs are still showing a bomb I'm sure the server will begin having issues handling the traffic.

You mean Thursday 00 or Friday 00?

The most discouraging thing would be if this were to get pushed further back. We need an event in our face at this point. We've gone from teh perpetual 10 day thread to 6. We need a delivery. Doesn't need to be the EC, but we need somehting good to instill a sense of satisfaction and to instill a shot of confidence into our convictions of why we spend so much time on this board. lol

[powderfreak]

I'm glad the Euro gives me 2 feet of snow. But wake me when its another 4 days closer.

Haha, even then its still 48-72 hours out. There is a LOT of time left on this puppy and we are already getting 1-2 pages worth of posts every 15 minutes. This place is going to be nuts if this still shows it come Friday afternoon.

[Wx4cast]

I actually would like a r*dio sh*w though.. you can learn a lot from Wes dt and will on the setup

Me too then the next run of the EC and GGEM will make it a fish storm! Kiss of death.

I'm glad the Euro gives me 2 feet of snow. But wake me when its another 4 days closer.

LOL...so true. I think if one takes EC solution verbatim I would consider sleet or snow/sleet mix west across the Berkshires and SENY

[moneypitmike]

haha. Probably better than your dusting is doing.

It's doing ok. Definitely compacted today.

I wsih I got a dusting today. The best I could muster were some light snow showers this moroning. Didn't even expect that.

29.0/21

[CoastalWx]

Haha, even then its still 48-72 hours out. There is a LOT of time left on this puppy and we are already getting 1-2 pages worth of posts every 15 minutes. This place is going to be nuts if this still shows it come Friday afternoon.

It's almost painful to talk about because it's so far out, but everyone wants to know.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Me too then the next run of the EC and GGEM will make it a fish storm! Kiss of death.

LOL...so true. I think if one takes EC solution verbatim I would consider sleet or snow/sleet mix west across the Berkshires and SENY

Stock up on shear pins for the snowblowers.

[snowNH]

It's almost painful to talk about because it's so far out, but everyone wants to know.

IMO were not THAT far out.. the Nam is already forming the low that is crossing the Midwest and we'll know just by 500mb if the low.will go up.the coast or ots

[CoastalWx]

If you take the euro verbatim...plenty cold aloft. outside of 495 it seems. It's below 925mb or so that furnaces, especially east of ORH and TOL, but I'm surprised how far back the 1000-850 critical thicknesses go. Euro brings this all the way to western CT and MA. That low stalls and shoves marine air pretty far west, but I think the end result would be a little cooler than what's depicted.

[CoastalWx]

IMO were not THAT far out.. the Nam is already forming the low that is crossing the Midwest and we'll know just by 500mb if the low.will go up.the coast or ots

It's far out when you are talking about details of a storm. These things don't get resolved until 48hrs from the event.

[moneypitmike]

Whoops---there it is. Their outline is showing coast, coast, coast.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I think an OTS solution is less likely than last time around, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. At least we have a mechanism for amplification but it will depend on s/w timing as usual. I think the euro op seems like a western outlier, but it shows the potential for what can happen if we phase. The GFS on the other hand shows what happen when timing is fooked up. For now, I think the euro ensembles are reasonable to me. There is really not much you can say this far out. Canadian ensembles are waaaaaay east.

I think the NOGAPs shows the "models gone wild" solution...when Nova Scotia is a miss that's rough.

[codfishsnowman]

12 z Monday it's above 32f all the way to dxr. Geez

what reporting station is dxr?

[ski MRG]

yep...that run at face value is wagons west!...way west.

mrg would be doing naked bong hits out on his picnic table though.

Let 'em rip.

[DomNH]

Radio show tonight...may as well start throwing hoisting marine watches for the middle of the Atlantic.

[OKpowdah]

http://www.cpc.ncep....0analog.off.gif

I know that page. There's one that I saw pop up a few times last year, that provided analog days for individual days of the model prog. It was a fun one to glance at for storms, but I never got around to saving it.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Radio show tonight...may as well start throwing hoisting marine watches for the middle of the Atlantic.

Oh Gawd! Don't do it Will... kiss o' death... (as much as I enjoy the listen)

[Damage In Tolland]

what reporting station is dxr?

DAnbury.

Anywhere north of DXR to PVD and west stays snow on the Euro

[moneypitmike]

what reporting station is dxr?

Danbury, CT