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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

so, skimming through all these post since the 12z suite of various idiosyncratic solutions, and here is the best description i can derive that defines the characteristic of the consensus voice:

what ever the least impactive solution there is, that is one people should count on verifying.

okay, got it - just so we're clear. :huh:

You can say you don't want to lose power, but in your heart you are hoping for a massive societal disruption aren't ya? haha.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I think folks are just trying to prevent being disappointed. ;-)

....Most likely, sure - but it is wrong to do that. One should be objective and leave the personal crap at the door - the atmosphere doesn't give a shyst how much one grouses over any of this and it is ad nauseam trying to figure out if the statement being read is veracioius or not based on whether or not the given poster is coming from a point of view of clarity over bias because they allow emotions/desire cloud opinion.

Eh, what do you expect from a non-refereed public resource. Par for the course I suppose.

In any event, NCEP sides with amplitude on this and I am afraid I do too:

IN THE EAST...THE MAIN ISSUE INVOLVES THE INTERACTION OR PHASING

OF MULTIPLE STREAMS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A

SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST WINTER STORM BEGINNING DAY 4. OWING TO

UNCERTAINTY IN INITIAL CONDITIONS...DIFFERENCES IN MODEL

CONFIGURATIONS INCLUDING RESOLUTION...AND DIFFERENCES IN DATA

ASSIMILATION TECHNIQUES...DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN THIS REGION IS

UNUSUALLY SENSITIVE...WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL

MODELS...POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...AND LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREADS.

THUS...THE APPROACH FOR THE EASTERN CONUS SYSTEM IS TOWARD THE

MODEL CONSENSUS AND FORECAST CONTINUITY. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE

WITH THE FINAL PRESSURES/FRONTS PROGS IN THE EAST WAS TO NUDGE THE

FINAL POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TOWARD A

CONSENSUS OF THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF

ENSEMBLE MEAN...WITH THE FINAL POSITIONS CLOSEST TO THE 00Z ECMWF.

AFTER DISCOUNTING THE 12Z UKMET DUE TO ITS OUTLIER DEPICTIONS IN

MULTIPLE AREAS...THE 12Z ECMWF LIES NEAR THE SLOW OR SOUTHWESTERN

EDGE OF THE ENTIRE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND GIVEN THE MULTIPLE

UNCERTAINTIES HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE...WOULD RATHER SEE ADDITIONAL

GUIDANCE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BEFORE

USING ENTIRELY...WHICH IN TERMS OF PROBABILITIES...LIES WITHIN THE

LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF ALL SOLUTIONS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE LESS. IF

THE NEW ECMWF VERIFIES...THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW

WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. HOWEVER...ITS SPEED WILL BE MUCH

SLOWER...RESULTING IN GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE ATLANTIC

AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER QPF THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

JAMES

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Yeah I was thinking that ..only difference maybe is this slows it down a lot north of the MD line.

Just got a chance to look at the 12z EC. Kinda reminds me of the march '93 storm in a way...just further east. 980 low on hatteras is not easy to come by. 1000mb low before it leaves florida. Interior GA and SC look to get whaled on even.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Just got a chance to look at the 12z EC. Kinda reminds me of the march '93 storm in a way...just further east. 980 low on hatteras is not easy to come by. 1000mb low before it leaves florida. Interior GA and SC look to get whaled on even.

funny, i saw that similarity too but stopped shy because '93 had more a tripple stream phase look, where this is a two streamer, and figured some astute sub-Met enthusiast would use it as ammo to embarass me

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted

I waited for the ECMWF to come out on the Accu-wx Pro site and looked at each 5H map in six hour increments in awe. I guessed pretty well on where it would put a surface low. I'm sure this track will shift around, but no disputing this is going to be a major event now.

really Rick?

too early, no?.....still 144 hrs from our lattitude.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Don't forget the sleet hole over BOSTON

Obviously this has a very, very, very minute chance of verifying but while we are playing the "what if" game, what type of NESIS rating do we think the 12z EURO would be? haha... the number of major cities that are getting crushed at that 144 panel is incredible.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

It's so massive on the ECMWF that it seems to push the deformation all the way back to about Pembroke, Ontario. LOL So should we get a bomb like this - even if it ends up near the Boston BM of 40/70...its northwest heavy snowfall quadrant could be quite beneficial.

I just can't get over the F+144 on the 12z EURO... with the H7 RH map, its snowing from northern VT all the way down into North Carolina. That's insane.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Obviously this has a very, very, very minute chance of verifying but while we are playing the "what if" game, what type of NESIS rating do we think the 12z EURO would be? haha... the number of major cities that are getting crushed at that 144 panel is incredible.

Well ...let's see, i believe the scale is 1-6, 1 being the result of March 2001, and 6 being dogs and cats forced to live together...

- probably about 24 then

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

That's a little bit of my point. It was right around this time give or take a day (and in reality the low is developing a day earlier just down the coast) that they both blew it terribly last time.

I think the GFS is probably out to lunch but likewise the EC is too.

NOGAPs came in, misses with what is barely a storm now by about 2000 miles. It actually mostly misses Nova Scotia now which is impressive.

We have one camp of models way west supported by a model that always seems to do this west thing (GGEM) and a bunch of others that probably tend to miss to far SE hinting at a near hit. The NOGAPs is hopeless.

I kind of like where we are right now (SE 1/3 of NE).

:facepalm:

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Could this be any more classic though?

Foreign models nail us.. gfs and nogaps typical SE bias...

We are a LONG ways out... this is still a day 6-7 event. We have 6 whole more days of this to go before we actually see reality... thats a lot of time for things to muck up.

While the EURO and GGEM are fun to look at, I still think eastern and southern areas are in the best spot... the ensemble means are telling.

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