Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

[Clinch Leatherwood]

the GGEM bombed the low and brought it into new england on the exact same 2 runs the euro did, both within 100 hours.

anyways, its not as bad as people think IMO (but then again im Canadian ).... its just the maps suck, lol.

id take the GGEM over the Ukie anyday, thoguh i know someone will post a chart showing otherwise.....

That's a little bit of my point. It was right around this time give or take a day (and in reality the low is developing a day earlier just down the coast) that they both blew it terribly last time.

I think the GFS is probably out to lunch but likewise the EC is too.

NOGAPs came in, misses with what is barely a storm now by about 2000 miles. It actually mostly misses Nova Scotia now which is impressive.

We have one camp of models way west supported by a model that always seems to do this west thing (GGEM) and a bunch of others that probably tend to miss to far SE hinting at a near hit. The NOGAPs is hopeless.

I kind of like where we are right now (SE 1/3 of NE).

[Organizing Low]

That's a little bit of my point. It was right around this time give or take a day (and in reality the low is developing a day earlier just down the coast) that they both blew it terribly last time.

I think the GFS is probably out to lunch but likewise the EC is too.

NOGAPs came in, misses with what is barely a storm now by about 2000 miles. It actually mostly misses Nova Scotia now which is impressive.

We have one camp of models way west supported by a model that always seems to do this west thing (GGEM) and a bunch of others that probably tend to miss to far SE hinting at a near hit. The NOGAPs is hopeless.

I kind of like where we are right now (SE 1/3 of NE).

i saw what you posted in the 12z thread about narrowing the envelope to the east.....and i fully agree with that post.

the euro solution implies that history will be made. could happen, but highly unlikely.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

And for the record I'd rather have it this way. Whenever we have consensus at this range it either snows on someone else or it ends up sunny.

Go back and look at the feature in the dakotas now. 4-5 days ago the GFS and I believe EC had it forecast to be either into or through PA by now. It's initializing up in the Dakotas. It was in that key 100-60 hour period that they did most of their huge moves and gradually settled down inside of 48-72 making smaller adjustments.

[HoarfrostHubb]

it looks like that, but it is not rain actually... it's -3C at 850 - possibly an elevated warm layer resulting in pingers for a stint, but that is 100% snow at ORH and 95% at BOS

14" of sleet for Rev Kev?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

14" of sleet for Rev Kev?

LOL heavy heavy broken hearts.

For giggles when does the JMA come out - again for historica reference.

[stormtracker]

The superstitious stuff is kind of annoying.

Thank you.

It was funny at first, but its kinda dumb now.

We've done several radio shows the nights before we got hit during the storms down here last year and we've done some where storms actually behaved.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah that would be a bummer for you and I in terms of ptype, but at least we would change back. The thing is....all of sne could afford an east shift because the comma head is huge. This could go over the BM and still bury God's country.

Not to be contrarian but the high up N and the rate of intensification rates combined would mean that BL flow is more NNE/NE in that/those depictions. The subgeostrophic component might even attempt to be normally vectored to the isobaric gradient - not uncommon when rapid intensificaiton takes place.

Make no bones about it, that is bombogenesis in the classical definition of that.

In December 2003 there was a nigh N/NW of the area, and the water temperatures in the Harbor were in the low 50s - Logon made just 33 in west snow before crashing through the 20s having never seen any rain.

I think you won't have any worries there where you are.

As to sore thumb sticking out over an oceanic Bunsen burner on the Cape - yeah, could see issues there.

[weathafella]

LOL heavy heavy broken hearts.

For giggles when does the JMA come out - again for historica reference.

[Logan11]

I guess you all saw THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW ecmwf run.

LOL heavy heavy broken hearts.

For giggles when does the JMA come out - again for historica reference.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

I think a track from 35n: 75w to 41n: 69w seems most appropiate given the foreign models bias of overamplifying storms in this range. I think the foreign models are too slow with the southern energy, but I could definitely see there intensities show up at the end result. I mean even with the over amplified GGEM and EURO runs for this past ocean storm, the intensities in the end were pretty darn close. I think it is a matter of when the pNA shifts eastward and allows phasing to occur. Right now I would go with this track I mentioned, roughly east of Cape Hatteras, NC to east of Chatham, MA. GFS is too flat and the NAM is more in line with the foreign models. We don't need a lot to happen for the EURO track to verify, and that is a scary thought. I would be an I95 blizzard, just too strong and too quick in intensification. Chances are this storm waits for our latitude.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Not to be contrarian but the high up N and the rate of intensification rates combined would mean that BL flow is more NNE/NE in that/those depictions. The subgeostrophic component might even attempt to be normally vectored to the isobaric gradient - not uncommon when rapid intensificaiton takes place.

Make no bones about it, that is bombogenesis in the classical definition of that.

In December 2003 there was a nigh N/NW of the area, and the water temperatures in the Harbor were in the low 50s - Logon made just 33 in west snow before crashing through the 20s having never seen any rain.

I think you won't have any worries there where you are.

As to sore thumb sticking out over an oceanic Bunsen burner on the Cape - yeah, could see issues there.

totally different animal.

[weathafella]

totally different animal.

I think this is more ....well I won't even mention the date...

[Organizing Low]

I think this is more ....well I won't even mention the date...

good move.

[weathafella]

OT but NAM advertising a snowy night tomorrow night particularly in the later hours.

[powderfreak]

yep...that run at face value is wagons west!...way west.

mrg would be doing naked bong hits out on his picnic table though.

Hahaha... I'd do anything for the EURO/GGEM to be right about this one. That's a huge comma head of snows over the interior.

[Logan11]

I waited for the ECMWF to come out on the Accu-wx Pro site and looked at each 5H map in six hour increments in awe. I guessed pretty well on where it would put a surface low. I'm sure this track will shift around, but no disputing this is going to be a major event now.

[snowNH]

Euro ensembles anyone?

[CoastalWx]

12z Euro ensembles are actually a hair se of the 00z euro ensembles. The low looks like it might be just east of the BM moving north, but there is a wide 990mb isobar so seems to be some decent apread. Euro op seems like a big outlier if you believe the ensembles. It also seems slower to leave.

[Logan11]

March 11, 1888? February 6, 1978? March 13, 1993? LOL

I think this is more ....well I won't even mention the date...

[snowNH]

12z Euro ensembles are actually a hair se of the 00z euro ensembles. The low looks like it might be just east of the BM moving north, but there is a wide 990mb isobar so seems to be some decent apread. Euro op seems like a big outlier if you believe the ensembles. It also seems slower to leave.

Hmmm.. eerily similar to last event

[Tropopause_Fold]

12z Euro ensembles are actually a hair se of the 00z euro ensembles. The low looks like it might be just east of the BM moving north, but there is a wide 990mb isobar so seems to be some decent apread. Euro op seems like a big outlier if you believe the ensembles. It also seems slower to leave.

thanks scott.

[snowNH]

I waited for the ECMWF to come out on the Accu-wx Pro site and looked at each 5H map in six hour increments in awe. I guessed pretty well on where it would put a surface low. I'm sure this track will shift around, but no disputing this is going to be a major event now.

I Don't think we can 100% say major.event right now

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z Euro ensembles are actually a hair se of the 00z euro ensembles. The low looks like it might be just east of the BM moving north, but there is a wide 990mb isobar so seems to be some decent apread. Euro op seems like a big outlier if you believe the ensembles. It also seems slower to leave.

Thanks Scooter. Makes me feel good about where I am right now.

[CoastalWx]

thanks scott.

It looks similar to 00z, perhaps slower and a hair se, but tough to tell with spread.

[Typhoon Tip]

so, skimming through all these post since the 12z suite of various idiosyncratic solutions, and here is the best description i can derive that defines the characteristic of the consensus voice:

what ever the least impactive solution there is, that is one people should count on verifying.

okay, got it - just so we're clear.

[Logan11]

Well no not 100%. Also I didn't mean a lock yet for places like from here to NH...could always shift O.T.S. on us and fringe us.....

I Don't think we can 100% say major.event right now

[Mad River]

I Don't think we can 100% say major.event right now

I wholeheartedly agree with this sentiment. Last week there were quite a few people jumping up and down after a couple of good Euro runs. Look how that panned out. I'll believe it when I see it.

[moneypitmike]

good move.

What storms (any season) have we had with a 968 for comparison purposes?

Also--what type of winds would the EC be throwing as depicted? (just because it's fun to imagine).

[Mad River]

so, skimming through all these post since the 12z suite of various idiosyncratic solutions, and here is the best description i can derive that defines the characteristic of the consensus voice:

what ever the least impactive solution there is, that is one people should count on verifying.

okay, got it - just so we're clear.

I think folks are just trying to prevent being disappointed. ;-)

[Logan11]

Sure it could still screw us in the "deeper interior region," but I think we have quite a few more models and runs on board now for this event...versus the recent failed event.

I wholeheartedly agree with this sentiment. Last week there were quite a few people jumping up and down after a couple of good Euro runs. Look how that panned out. I'll believe it when I see it.