Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

[Cold Miser]

Let's split the difference in the tracks and call it a day....

Where's your location?

[RICoastalMan]

I know this is crazy and entirely too early but... if one were to base a forecast off the 12Z Euro for BOS, what would that look like?

Not the best.....but better than the south coast of rhode island or most of the conn south coast.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Let's see if the euro bias is being too slow ejecting the southwest energy is in place here. I'd rather it be the case...because I think all of SNE would prefer a later phase and a rapidly deepening low as it makes it up here instead of a very strong, but occluding low with dry slot and mixing issues.

As the thegreatdr mentioned, the Euro ensemble mean has the best skill for low placement at this range compared to any other model or model consensus. If you want to hang your hat on a solution, it would be that one.

Which at 5 days is still 200 or so miles I believe give or take if not more?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Which at 5 days is still 200 or so miles I believe give or take if not more?

The 00z Euro Ensm. was a BM track for SNE. Huge hit.

[OSUmetstud]

Which at 5 days is still 200 or so miles I believe give or take if not more?

I wouldn't know what the distance error is. That sounds about right though, 300 nm for TCs.

1388 people on the board 15 minutes...craziness...a storm must be coming.

[weatherwiz]

I wouldn't know what the distance error is. That sounds about right though, 300 nm for TCs.

1388 people on the board 15 minutes...craziness...a storm must be coming.

That many people? wow. Server seems to be doing VERY well. No issues at all from my end.

[snowman21]

yeah...I was thinking it had that look too. Once it occludes we're all frozen. I can live with sleet...just keep the rain away

If you're going by the EC I don't think so. Not with the surface low tucked in that close to the coast. That looks to me like a few inches of initial overruning snow as it rolls up the coast followed by coastal front hell and buckets of 40s and rain while NW of a ORH-BDL-DXR line it's 28 in S+. Fortunately the event is still six days away and that solution is unlikely to verify.

[Zeus]

Well the hope is for a 50 mile adjustment east....if you're me.

And I am.

[Tropopause_Fold]

it looks like that, but it is not rain actually... it's -3C at 850 - possibly an elevated warm layer resulting in pingers for a stint, but that is 100% snow at ORH and 95% at BOS

Extraordinarily tough for 95% of that to fall as snow anywhere east of orh in that setup...imo. major bl problems.

[Tropopause_Fold]

If you're going by the EC I don't think so. Not with the surface low tucked in that close to the coast. That looks to me like a few inches of initial overruning snow as it rolls up the coast followed by coastal front hell and buckets of 40s and rain while NW of a ORH-BDL-DXR line it's 28 in S+. Fortunately the event is still six days away and that solution is unlikely to verify.

Yeah tend to agree here. But whatever...details are meaningless right now.

[moneypitmike]

1.75" out to you....

Is that all? I get giddy just at the idea. For areas that stay cold, it would be great if they could muster some ratios.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah tend to agree here. But whatever...details are meaningless right now.

Liking the look of things right now.

[dryslot]

Extraordinarily tough for 95% of that to fall as snow anywhere east of orh in that setup...imo. major bl problems.

There is.......I Posted the temps back a page or so......

[free_man]

Liking the look of things right now.

Yeah, one of these setups will yield a winter storm.

[dryslot]

Is that all? I get giddy just at the idea. For areas that stay cold, it would be great if they could muster some ratios.

[CoastalWx]

Extraordinarily tough for 95% of that to fall as snow anywhere east of orh in that setup...imo. major bl problems.

Yeah that would be a bummer for you and I in terms of ptype, but at least we would change back. The thing is....all of sne could afford an east shift because the comma head is huge. This could go over the BM and still bury God's country.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

So the GFS is weakest, UKMET is somewhere between but leaning towards the EC, and the JMA of North American Models, the GGEM agrees with the EC?

[Baroclinic Zone]

So the GFS is weakest, UKMET is somewhere between but leaning towards the EC, and the JMA of North American Models, the GGEM agrees with the EC?

Sums up the 12z runs.

[SnowMan]

Real quick though - Are we supposed to get more snow tonight through tomorrow? Where is it coming from?

[moneypitmike]

Any sense as to what surface winds might be in the current depiction?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Sums up the 12z runs.

It's the GGEM that makes me suspicious of the EC. I'm not sure I can ever remember in my lifetime it being even close to right at 144 hours. I remember countless times it tucked huge storms up near us only to be totally wrong.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah that would be a bummer for you and I in terms of ptype, but at least we would change back. The thing is....all of sne could afford an east shift because the comma head is huge. This could go over the BM and still bury God's country.

yep...that run at face value is wagons west!...way west.

mrg would be doing naked bong hits out on his picnic table though.

[Organizing Low]

So the GFS is weakest, UKMET is somewhere between but leaning towards the EC, and the JMA of North American Models, the GGEM agrees with the EC?

just wanted to clarify

Env Canada does not even access the GGEM within 48 hours........ 0% of the GGEM is used to build 48 hour forecast grids.

GGEM did just fine comparitively with the last event for its intended use in the midrange.....

not sure how the RGEM did in the short range though...

[mattlacroix4]

Real quick though - Are we supposed to get more snow tonight through tomorrow? Where is it coming from?

Depends on where you are,

See this thread:

-december-21-22-inverted-troughretro-precip-midweek-threat

[Clinch Leatherwood]

just wanted to clarify

Env Canada does not even access the GGEM within 48 hours........ 0% of the GGEM is used to build 48 hour forecast grids.

GGEM did just fine comparitively with the last event for its intended use in the midrange.....

not sure how the RGEM did in the short range though...

I don't remember it that way. Both the GGEM and RGEM were horrid. The GGEM at 48-96 hardly ever even had precip NW of the BM and certainly it had none of the heavy stuff that existed. It was worse than even the NOGAPS.

Does anyone have or remember a single instance where a 144hr or 132 hr bomb on the GGEM came close to verifying just for sake of all the comparisons and analogs we like to use.

I'm pretty sure there is a graphic that shows us how each model verifies and if I remember the GGEM is normally near the bottom.

[moneypitmike]

For those of us with only 24 hour intervals--what's the timing of system arrival/departure on the EC?

[Organizing Low]

I don't remember it that way. Both the GGEM and RGEM were horrid. The GGEM at 48-96 hardly ever even had precip NW of the BM and certainly it had none of the heavy stuff that existed. It was worse than even the NOGAPS.

Does anyone have or remember a single instance where a 144hr or 132 hr bomb on the GGEM came close to verifying just for sake of all the comparisons and analogs we like to use.

I'm pretty sure there is a graphic that shows us how each model verifies and if I remember the GGEM is normally near the bottom.

the GGEM bombed the low and brought it into new england on the exact same 2 runs the euro did, both within 100 hours.

anyways, its not as bad as people think IMO (but then again im Canadian ).... its just the maps suck, lol.

id take the GGEM over the Ukie anyday, thoguh i know someone will post a chart showing otherwise..... i suppose its just a matter of personal taste.

[weathafella]

Where's your location?

JFK birthplace, Brookline,MA.

[free_man]

So the GFS is weakest, UKMET is somewhere between but leaning towards the EC, and the JMA of North American Models, the GGEM agrees with the EC?

The Ukie develops way too fast too fast and far south for our interests ( at least in my opinion, I'll doublecheck), but it does have a bomb.

[dryslot]

If we got a track between the 12 GFS and the 12z Euro, There would be many happy people up here on this board..............