Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

[weatherwiz]

LOL, this was the other option I mentioned this morning...having that trough dig so much and bomb a low due north. In this case however, it would be a monster.

This is something we'll have to really watch over the next several days, medium/long range models sometimes really love to over dig the troughs.

[weathafella]

UK OTS but a bomb...

[ENYsnow]

How far west does it paste that stripe?

Imagine if this moved west and added to the Dec totals of the 'cuse?

Syracuse still does pretty well in this scenario lol decent precip all the way into ontario.

[dryslot]

I'm telling you, seriously, shut up. No r*adio sh*w this time

Don't need one, KISS OF DEATH......

[Organizing Low]

Whoever said UK was like EC? It's about 200 miles out to sea....

i said Ukie was a bomb like the ECM, nothing more.

[weatherwiz]

for sure. Obviously I'd take this in a heartbeat....but I'd prefer further east.

I guess as long as it doesn't begin to occlude too early it might not be all that bad with with such rapid deepening and strengthening it might start to wrap in some dry air.

[snowNH]

No! We are not wishing this east this time! Remember we said that last storm with the euro??

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

UK OTS but a bomb...

Post the Ukie at 96 and compare where southern stream is vs all other modeling

[OKpowdah]

It's way more amped vs the prior 2 runs...not even close really.

Yeah, I would say this run is a little extreme. lol

A couple of consistent ideas though: a bomb, and taking a pretty sharp left turn up the coast. Both are contradictory to the GFS ensembles.

---

As a side note, can we stop the references to the last storm? It's a completely different set up, with much better model support, and the Euro has been consistent with the idea for a number of runs. Not saying it happens, but it's not comparable to this last threat.

[weathafella]

i said Ukie was a bomb like the ECM, nothing more.

Let's split the difference in the tracks and call it a day....

[weatherwiz]

Yeah, I would say this run is a little extreme. lol

A couple of consistent ideas though: a bomb, and taking a pretty sharp left turn up the coast. Both are contradictory to the GFS ensembles.

---

As a side note, can we stop the references to the last storm? It's a completely different set up, with much better model support, and the Euro has been consistent with the idea for a number of runs. Not saying it happens, but it's not comparable to this last threat.

Violently agree!!!!

[weathafella]

No! We are not wishing this east this time! Remember we said that last storm with the euro??

Let's put it this way, given population distribution of SNE, there's alot more weenies wishing it east.....

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

I feel like I am having deja vu from this past storm with the Euro showing a monster...I am sorry, but as much as I love this, my trust was severely hurt in this last one.

Different setup this time. Much better and does not need perfect evolution just to get a storm.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

I'm telling you, seriously, shut up. No r*adio sh*w this time

stop being superstitious...gotta break the curse at some point.

[SJonesWX]

Anybody else's heart beating really fast? Radio show?

I'm telling you, seriously, shut up. No r*adio sh*w this time

Don't need one, KISS OF DEATH......

i have said it before, and will say it again...no more radio shows.

like dryslot said, it is the kiss of death.

[weatherwiz]

The superstitious stuff is kind of annoying.

[weathafella]

I will say this: Nate gets positively crushed this run. 2 feet.

[moneypitmike]

All of ct ma and se nh have bl issues with above freezing temps on crazy marine air flux with sub 970 bomb

Is that supposed to be ME?

[CoastalWx]

Different setup this time. Much better and does not need perfect evolution just to get a storm.

Yeah I think the strong ridging is a plus this time around for sure.

[RICoastalMan]

It seems Im sitting squarely in the screw zone once again.........slop at best case while inland they cash in or OTS. Must be nice to live inland or even on cape cod after yesterday's storm. .

[Clinch Leatherwood]

2" QPF from here to PWM.

Just so I'm clear when I say this - I'll be up north a day after this/during so I really really really want it to snow up north. Skiing etc. Inlaws stay at our place for a week I head for the mountains

But all that said, I think these extreme solutions will turn out to be just that...extreme.

At this same time frame on the last event the EC was horrible, as was every other model in their own way.

Having the GGEM as support at this range is like having Bin Laden as a groomsman.

[dryslot]

Let's put it this way, given population distribution of SNE, there's alot more weenies wishing it east.....

850's were 0c most of Mass and up here after the intial onslaught, With 2m temps in the 30-40's, Thats not going to cut it.......

[Mr. Windcredible!]

UK OTS but a bomb...

refresh refresh refresh...that looks old...144 hours valid at 0z.

believe this is the latest and greatest

[dryslot]

Just so I'm clear when I say this - I'll be up north a day after this/during so I really really really want it to snow up north. Skiing etc. Inlaws stay at our place for a week I head for the mountains

But all that said, I think these extreme solutions will turn out to be just that...extreme.

At this same time frame on the last event the EC was horrible, as was every other model in their own way.

QPF verbatium on the euro up at SR would be close to 3".........

[Typhoon Tip]

Too close to the coast. After an initial snow dump, most of E MA taints by 144.

it looks like that, but it is not rain actually... it's -3C at 850 - possibly an elevated warm layer resulting in pingers for a stint, but that is 100% snow at ORH and 95% at BOS

[weatherwiz]

The Euro is pretty fun but I'm a little bit skeptical of it's insanely strong solution. Seeing troughs digging that deep are always a red flag to me, especially this far out.

[OSUmetstud]

Let's see if the euro bias is being too slow ejecting the southwest energy is in place here. I'd rather it be the case...because I think all of SNE would prefer a later phase and a rapidly deepening low as it makes it up here instead of a very strong, but occluding low with dry slot and mixing issues.

As the thegreatdr mentioned, the Euro ensemble mean has the best skill for low placement at this range compared to any other model or model consensus. If you want to hang your hat on a solution, it would be that one.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

it looks like that, but it is not rain actually... it's -3C at 850 - possibly an elevated warm layer resulting in pingers for a stint, but that is 100% snow at ORH and 95% at BOS

yeah...I was thinking it had that look too. Once it occludes we're all frozen. I can live with sleet...just keep the rain away

[alex]

It seems Im sitting squarely in the screw zone once again.........slop at best case while inland they cash in or OTS. Must be nice to live inland or even on cape cod after yesterday's storm. .

I know this is crazy and entirely too early but... if one were to base a forecast off the 12Z Euro for BOS, what would that look like?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Keep it on topic gang.