Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

[codfishsnowman]

normally boisterous accu weather being very conservative on the weekend storm

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

I honestly am at a loss on what to do in there because it's MET's arguing/debating MET's over the merits of one model vs another. It's become counter-productive and is detracting from educated discussion. I think for the most part, all of us here know the strengths and weaknesses/bias of the models and don't get bogged down with those sorts of things.

I always find the new eng thread to be the best place to come and talk models/setup anyway. Main thread gets too cluttered with junk and stupid posts and pointless arguments.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I always find the new eng thread to be the best place to come and talk models/setup anyway. Main thread gets too cluttered with junk and stupid posts and pointless arguments.

Yup.

How bout this upcoming snowstorm?

12z GONAP went to the fishies.

[CoastalWx]

The Canadian kind of mimics the euro, with the idea of the low slowly moving east once it reaches a certain latitude.

[tamarack]

yeah sorry...forget what I said about qualifications for a KU, I clearly haven' t looked at the book recently...but still, the point is that he's right in his assumptions that KU storms are more often than not lackluster events for western portions of SNE...at least in comparison to their performance over the I-95 corridor.

Very true. If an event doesn't pound BOS/PVD/BDL (and preferably more southerly pop centers as well) it will come out low on the NESIS scale, and if it does it's often much less significant on the northern and western fringes. Living in the least densely populated state east of the Mississippi, I see the best of our storms pretty much ignored, and jsutly so on a scale with affected population as a chief variable. The "I" of NESIS, "impact" = effects on people.

[MaineJayhawk]

normally boisterous accu weather being very conservative on the weekend storm

That's all I need to hear.

Raise your buns in the air .... FIIIYYYAAHHHHHH!!!!!

[nzucker]

Still a little concerned about overall speed in the flow, but agree with Gibbs in that the ridge out west is def a great thing on our side. It'll be interesting to see what the ukie and euro do.

It seems like there's starting to be too much of a lag in the northern stream phasing in.

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

The Canadian kind of mimics the euro, with the idea of the low slowly moving east once it reaches a certain latitude.

I have to head out, but if you have time, do a comarison between GFS and GEM to see what the biggest differences are with evolution and then we can see how euro handles and trends with those key features.

I a cheering hard here....lol

[weatherwiz]

You would think though with sfc convergence occurring right there off the NC/SC coast that you'd see upper level divergence start to occur a bit further back to the west?

[Tropopause_Fold]

it'll be interesting to see how, if at all, this monster vortex spinning to our NE affects guidance/the pattern now that it is firmly in place/developed

[Typhoon Tip]

Yup.

How bout this upcoming snowstorm?

12z GONAP went to the fishies.

Where are you getting 12z NOGAPS by the noon hour?

[Baroclinic Zone]

The 12z GGEM at 108h looks more like the 00z Euro at 120 than the 12z GFS at 108h, fwiw.

[dendrite]

Where are you getting 12z NOGAPS by the noon hour?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=ngp_namer

[Tropopause_Fold]

Where are you getting 12z NOGAPS by the noon hour?

he's a top secret gov't agent with a direct connection to the white house

[Baroclinic Zone]

Where are you getting 12z NOGAPS by the noon hour?

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml

[CoastalWx]

I have to head out, but if you have time, do a comarison between GFS and GEM to see what the biggest differences are with evolution and then we can see how euro handles and trends with those key features.

I a cheering hard here....lol

Differences really arise at hr 84. The Canadian is a little deeper with the southern stream s/w, but way stronger with the nrn stream s/w. At hr 96, the srn stream s/w is gone, but it just paved the way for the nrn stream s/w to go bananas on the Canadian. It's almost like the gfs keeps the southern s/w in tact a little longer, and that causes interference with the nrn stream s/w.

[weathafella]

I have a feeling today's Euro is going to be more GGEM like than GFSish.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Already differences by 48h on the Euro compared to the GFS. Southern s/w is still off the coast of CA while the GFS has it in AZ.

Edit, I toggle back to the 24h panel on the Euro. Still a bit slower though, my bad.

[weathafella]

Maybe not based on 72...

[Ginx snewx]

Testing to try posting from my iPad. If it works thanks Ginx via Kev

No problem, download the Tapatalk App for uploading images, easy and cool, just subscribe to this forum. Chuck um high chuck um far.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Maybe not based on 72...

Fixed my mistake Jer.

[OKpowdah]

Differences really arise at hr 84. The Canadian is a little deeper with the southern stream s/w, but way stronger with the nrn stream s/w. At hr 96, the srn stream s/w is gone, but it just paved the way for the nrn stream s/w to go bananas on the Canadian. It's almost like the gfs keeps the southern s/w in tact a little longer, and that causes interference with the nrn stream s/w.

this

Obviously a solution phasing strong northern and southern stream disturbances would be nice. But on the GFS, the southern stream is just in the way.

[Damage In Tolland]

From those descriptions doesn't sound all that promising...though this is why I don't like early descriptions

[weathafella]

Looks like it will be flatter and therefore further east. We'll know shortly...edit...OTOH...going for a phase beginning at 90..you can see where it could happen. ..

[CoastalWx]

Euro is weaker with the nrn stream at 12z.

[weathafella]

Should stay the course from 0Z which was very nice for many of us.

[CoastalWx]

it's trying to dig at hr 96.

[Damage In Tolland]

Let's let this mofo finish

[weathafella]

Gonna have to work fast to get this done...

[CoastalWx]

Really trying to dig at hr 102. Ridge is a hair further west.