Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

Nrn stream s/w is not as strong here as compared to 00z as well. 00z really dug that nrn stream s/w.

If the GFS was 6 hrs slower with southern stream wave, or 6 hrs casters with northern stream, the result would have been MECS on that 12z op GFS. I liked that Boi ridge was slower and how the southern stream was a shade slower and a bit deeper. This event has a lot more going for it in the setup than the stupid weekend whiff.

[Typhoon Tip]

does the 6z count? it lost it as well. that's why I'm surprised everyone is so shocked to see the 12z OTS. heck...the 12z threw more qpf into my area than did the 6z...a true weenie would be all over that "trend"

Actually, I see some pretty glaring mass field discontinuities even between the 06z and 12z - enough so to question either run's competence at the moment. For one, the 06z has about 25 more units of PVA than the 12z's rather blasse account. Both runs miss, but for entirely different reasons. that is super duper red flag there that should serve as an indictment of the run's veracity - in either case.

This run has decided to enter in trough-centric S/Wlet interferences (take your pick on which), and when the model starts arguing within about proxies in situ to troughs, it's DEFINITELY going to miss the boat on phasing potential overall. Not sure why the GFS does this but I have seen it do this a few times in the past, where going from extended range into middle range ...for some reason it starts mangling the interioir jet maxes in this way, failing to pick one as dominant/cyclogenetic. The end result, less height fall kick-back from dynamics leads to less depth overall, weaker jet fields requires weaker and/or sheared in the llvs, and there you go: Powdered model-drops-signal just add water.

The insanity here is that the above is probably entirely correct, but the storm could still miss yet for entirely different reasons, having never availed of a favorable teleconnector spread.

[Logan11]

The GFS is at like 36/70 ...Id say that's a little swing out to sea. ..Not that we should put much stock into this 12z run.

I have more confidence on this one, We don't see the 200-300 mile swings east and west on the models, Just some small adjustments that look to be all related to timing.........

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just looking at the 500 maps, I think the GFS plays into it's bias of losing the southern energy.

[CoastalWx]

If the GFS was 6 hrs slower with southern stream wave, or 6 hrs casters with northern stream, the result would have been MECS on that 12z op GFS. I liked that Boi ridge was slower and how the southern stream was a shade slower and a bit deeper. This event has a lot more going for it in the setup than the stupid weekend whiff.

Yeah I just commented on the timing. Agree with all of this.

[moneypitmike]

yes I agree. and for the record...I didn't mean I expect another KU modeled event on the Euro at 12z...but I expect it to continue to be rather consistent with its placement of the surface low and QPF field through SNE. I wouldn't at all be shocked to see it back off of the 0z KU solution.

I have no need for a KU. If I'm not mistaken, they miss out this way more frequenlty than they hit (in their fury, I should say). Don't they typically nail the cp?

[Logan11]

You gotta read his "Near Miss KU" section for a lot of our best storms in WMA and ENY. Those are essentially the KU's that missed the coastal plain.

Sometimes we also share in a coastal plain KU, but sometimes not.....

I have no need for a KU. If I'm not mistaken, they miss out this way more frequenlty than they hit (in their fury, I should say). Don't they typically nail the cp?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

GGEM is going the wrong direction FWIW.

[moneypitmike]

OT--the wind is ripping. It must be just higher than my 8' , somewhat sheltered anemometer since it's only peaked at 15mph. But it's roraring through the bare trees.

[CoastalWx]

GGEM is going the wrong direction FWIW.

The GGEM was a mixed mess for us.

[Logan11]

Maybe that's actually the right direction for some us then. LOL

The GGEM was a mixed mess for us.

[Damage In Tolland]

GGEM going east is a good thing and what you'd suspect would happen given its westward bias

[dryslot]

The GFS is at like 36/70 ...Id say that's a little swing out to sea. ..Not that we should put much stock into this 12z run.

Yeah, But it hooked it back to catch Downeast Maine, All and all, Most all the models have been pretty consistant with the storm, As oppose to last where some had it and some did not, Yeah and especially a 12z run out over 100 hrs.......

[moneypitmike]

GGEM is going the wrong direction FWIW.

It's worth a lot I think in light of the GFS. Note that I am not being a Debbie Downer. I'm reacting to what the model's showing. I don't like holding out hope for "it frequenlty looses the storm for XXXX number of runs". We've just seen a major shift which is disappointing. Your GGEM comment doesn't lessen that disappointment.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

I have no need for a KU. If I'm not mistaken, they miss out this way more frequenlty than they hit (in their fury, I should say). Don't they typically nail the cp?

well...qualifying for a KU usually requires a storm to score 4 or 5 on the NESIS scale. Since that scale is driven by population and aerial coverage...if you have smaller aerial coverage (which is likely the case for the upcoming storm) then you would need high impact to high population centers...aka...an I-95 hit...which means a less impressive storm for you guys further inland.

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

Yeah I just commented on the timing. Agree with all of this.

The last event was pure split flow and pray for phasing. Check out the amplitude, or lack there of, of the upstream ridge with last event. Confluence kept BOI ridge flat and one an extra piece of energy tamped that ridge there was no shot at amplification and hence that led to bootleg pieces of energy ripping around the ontario vortex tot the north and a whiff.

In this setup, we have full latitude upstream ridge, a much more amplified southern stream wave, more moisture connection to tropical PAC (thanks El Nina), and a better moisture/heat source along the gulf coast for breeding ground of baroclinity. We need a lot less features to come together vs the previous setup, that is for sure.

[moneypitmike]

GGEM going east is a good thing and what you'd suspect would happen given its westward bias

If you're going to hold hope on a western bias and you're likeing the look of things 114 hours out, I'd be pretty disappointed by a western bias. There's a whole lot of correction vector in that instance that all points away from Mt. Tolland.

Just sayin'.

[weatherwiz]

There looks to be more in the way of sfc convergence with very little in the way of upper level divergence, without enough upper level divergence to work in tandem with the sfc convergence the system really doesn't strengthen or deepen very rapidly. If there was faster timing with the northern stream energy and a bit more of a negative tilt with the southern stream energy this would help to enhance the upper level divergence and would allow for faster development of the sfc low.

[moneypitmike]

well...qualifying for a KU usually requires a storm to score 4 or 5 on the NESIS scale. Since that scale is driven by population and aerial coverage...if you have smaller aerial coverage (which is likely the case for the upcoming storm) then you would need high impact to high population centers...aka...an I-95 hit...which means a less impressive storm for you guys further inland.

Good point. I think that's the root of my statement.

[Baroclinic Zone]

GGEM going east is a good thing and what you'd suspect would happen given its westward bias

GGEM looks pretty good.

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

The GGEM was a mixed mess for us.

I tended to question 0 z GGEM as well. 970something low that far west seemed to be the models bias for over amplification. So would have guessed it had to be flatter and east without even looking.

[Damage In Tolland]

If you're going to hold hope on a western bias and you're likeing the look of things 114 hours out, I'd be pretty disappointed by a western bias. There's a whole lot of correction vector in that instance that all points away from Mt. Tolland.

Just sayin'.

You've got to stop with these posts. Seriously

[Logan11]

I never even perceived the GGEM as having a westward bias with east coast lows....

If you're going to hold hope on a western bias and you're likeing the look of things 114 hours out, I'd be pretty disappointed by a western bias. There's a whole lot of correction vector in that instance that all points away from Mt. Tolland.

Just sayin'.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I tended to question 0 z GGEM as well. 970something low that far west seemed to be the models bias for over amplification. So would have guessed it had to be flatter and east without even looking.

GGEM doesnt look much different than the GFS but manages to pull it way in tight still.

Big cone of uncertainty. Personally I'm happy the GGEM is in tight and the GFS is outside. IMO that's the normal bias of both models at this range.

The GGEM always seems to overdevelop and get roped into a NW track, GFS too flat.

[CoastalWx]

The last event was pure split flow and pray for phasing. Check out the amplitude, or lack there of, of the upstream ridge with last event. Confluence kept BOI ridge flat and one an extra piece of energy tamped that ridge there was no shot at amplification and hence that led to bootleg pieces of energy ripping around the ontario vortex tot the north and a whiff.

In this setup, we have full latitude upstream ridge, a much more amplified southern stream wave, more moisture connection to tropical PAC (thanks El Nina), and a better moisture/heat source along the gulf coast for breeding ground of baroclinity. We need a lot less features to come together vs the previous setup, that is for sure.

Yeah I like all those features. All good stuff and lows go town town when they form on the western gulf wall. It looked like the flow was a little more compressed on the 12z gfs than 00z over New England, but I think the bigger issue was the nrn stream s.w and squashing the swn stream. Canadian is a bomb.

00z

12z

[Baroclinic Zone]

GGEM doesnt look much different than the GFS but manages to pull it way in tight still.

Big cone of uncertainty. Personally I'm happy the GGEM is in tight and the GFS is outside. IMO that's the normal bias of both models at this range.

The GGEM always seems to overdevelop and get roped into a NW track, GFS too flat.

Perfectly played.

[CoastalWx]

[Kbosch]

GGEM doesnt look much different than the GFS but manages to pull it way in tight still.

Big cone of uncertainty. Personally I'm happy the GGEM is in tight and the GFS is outside. IMO that's the normal bias of both models at this range.

The GGEM always seems to overdevelop and get roped into a NW track, GFS too flat.

Don't know the GGEM well enough but violent agreement on the GFS. Classic evolution.

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

I tended to question 0 z GGEM as well. 970something low that far west seemed to be the models bias for over amplification. So would have guessed it had to be flatter and east without even looking.

Lol. Of course it's a late kbaboom on GGEM.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Yeah I like all those features. All good stuff and lows go town town when they form on the western gulf wall. It looked like the flow was a little more compressed on the 12z gfs than 00z over New England, but I think the bigger issue was the nrn stream s.w and squashing the swn stream. Canadian is a bomb.

The GFS will be wrong in squashing the northern stream, it always is. I'm not even sure it's up for debate, it's 0 for 3 recently.