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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Time to hopep the ensembles show a positive sign. They were leaning ots this morning (and I htink last night, too).

I think ensembles from both the major models were leaning offshore.

When people wonder how things change so much. Look at the 0z 168 v 12z 156. there were changes of about 1500 miles at 500mb. I may have the hours off, may have been just behind this system but literally it had a s/w complex in the dakotas that it moved to bermuda.

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Kbosch

Kbosch

Posted
Posted

looks like we have some people up on the ledge already...

how about we wait and see what the GGEM and Euro do?

I'm all-in with a moderate event this weekend until the Euro loses it.

Yeah, really...it's the GFS at 100+ hours. The storm is there. We have plenty of time to put everything in place like the Euro. Can't wait till 1.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

I think ensembles from both the major models were leaning offshore.

When people wonder how things change so much. Look at the 0z 168 v 12z 156. there were changes of about 1500 miles at 500mb. I may have the hours off, may have been just behind this system but literally it had a s/w complex in the dakotas that it moved to bermuda.

Euro ensembles destroyed all of SNE

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

Was kinda inevitable that one of the op runs with turn up with something like this given the ensemble members we've seen.

Slow down the southern stream a little and speed up the digging northern stream a bit and BOOM ... and we can be fairly confident of that because we've seen a number of runs do that lol

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Thus enters the inevitability of the GFS trying desperately to lose the signal...

I figure about 3 runs now of generalized blackout on this event in the immediate future runs of GFS, and of course the associated insufferable posting behavior where negativity blinders stops the penetration of logic will follow...

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Yeah, really...it's the GFS at 100+ hours. The storm is there. We have plenty of time to put everything in place like the Euro. Can't wait till 1.

Yes, Who wants to be in the bullseye at over 100 hrs out, Not me thats for sure at this point Plenty of potential on the models for it to happen.......

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
Posted

Thus enters the inevitability of the GFS trying desperately to lose the signal...

I figure about 3 runs now of generalized blackout on this event in the immediate future runs of GFS, and of course the associated insufferable posting behavior where negativity blinders stops the penetration of logic will follow...

does the 6z count? it lost it as well. that's why I'm surprised everyone is so shocked to see the 12z OTS. heck...the 12z threw more qpf into my area than did the 6z...a true weenie would be all over that "trend"

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Thus enters the inevitability of the GFS trying desperately to lose the signal...

I figure about 3 runs now of generalized blackout on this event in the immediate future runs of GFS, and of course the associated insufferable posting behavior where negativity blinders stops the penetration of logic will follow...

:lol: This would be the time frame........

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't count on the GFS ensembles showing much until maybe 0Z Friday if this has a chance. We are in the "drop the storm" period of the GFS so who knows... maybe we should just wait for the foreign models.

Ridge on the GFS out west is centered in Saskatchewan...kinda east of the optimum position IMO.

I put my chances here at maybe 20%. Chances for a 6" + storm let's say.

Time to hopep the ensembles show a positive sign. They were leaning ots this morning (and I htink last night, too).

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
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I'm liking where it looks now. Was a bit worried last night. Meanwhile, the Euro has been pretty much unwavering on a progged track give or take 20-30 miles.

yeah...12z Euro will be interesting. but looking over yesterday's 12z and last nights...they weren't too terribly off in the position of the storm, the 0z just happened to be a touch slower which gave it that extra push it needed to put it into KU territory. i'll be surprised if we see any major changes from Dr. No at 12z.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Nrn stream s/w is not as strong here as compared to 00z as well. 00z really dug that nrn stream s/w.

And given history that's going to be an error (northern stream will be stronger, and dig more. GFS has had problems with that leading up to yesterday, and with the trough situation tomorrow in both cases being too fast with the northern energy and not strong enough.

This may qualify as an insufferable post but I figure I should point out what you say has been borne out on these last two systems and has proved to be a glaring flaw in the GFS as of late AND that this would like work to our advatnage to some extent later as it corrects.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

I'm liking where it looks now. Was a bit worried last night. Meanwhile, the Euro has been pretty much unwavering on a progged track give or take 20-30 miles.

I have more confidence on this one, We don't see the 200-300 mile swings east and west on the models, Just some small adjustments that look to be all related to timing.........

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Verbatim the run was not what everyone wants, but think of this in the grand scheme of things. The GFS just took a step towards the Euro. 'Nuff said.:snowman:

Coming in under the wire for 2010, a new contender for the understatement of the year! lol

I know it's a long ways out still, but the fact that the ensembles were leading the way has raised the flag of doom. When are the ensembles available?

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

I wish people had never invented the concept of the KU storm sometimes.... It sets the bar incredibly high. I would be thrilled with 6 inches on Christmas night into the 26th.

yeah...12z Euro will be interesting. but looking over yesterday's 12z and last nights...they weren't too terribly off in the position of the storm, the 0z just happened to be a touch slower which gave it that extra push it needed to put it into KU territory. i'll be surprised if we see any major changes from Dr. No at 12z.

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
Posted

I wish people had never invented the concept of the KU storm sometimes.... It sets the bar incredibly high. I would be thrilled with 6 inches on Christmas night into the 26th.

yes I agree. and for the record...I didn't mean I expect another KU modeled event on the Euro at 12z...but I expect it to continue to be rather consistent with its placement of the surface low and QPF field through SNE. I wouldn't at all be shocked to see it back off of the 0z KU solution.

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