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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted

the nina/KU non connection is really tough to igrnore regardless of what any of the models say, i was unaware of that relationship.

oh and we did have a few flurries here in spfd a couple hours ago which is more than i was expecting from that waste of an offshore storm.

bitter bitter snow deprived valley weenie here :(

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
Posted

That can be avoided by not getting emotionally involved... with that said, I feel pretty emotionally and physically removed from this system and my gut says you guys in the I-95 corridor from NYC to BOS get destroyed in this. It would be very, very difficult to not get heavy heavy excited if I lived down there :thumbsup:

For the ski area up here I'm forecasting cloudy to partly cloudy skies Sun/Mon (while you guys get crushed) with a chance of upslope snow showers late Monday and Tuesday. The weenie in me would love to forecast a heavy snow event up here, but honestly don't see that happening as I doubt the block disappears in time. The only way something would come further up into central/northern New England is if the H5 pulls a 00z GGEM.

yeah...hope for that went out the window after I saw the 0z Euro. granted, I'm not yet sold we'll see something as impressive as the Euro, but I'm in for at least a moderate event at this point...no turning back.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

Are you implying the sample size is small to rule out a KU?

Yeah the sample size is pretty small. I think we know physically why it's tougher. However, the pattern about to come forth is very atypical of La Nina. The Rockies ridge is modeled to be massive along with strong energy coming from the SW. We only need 2 things that have to come into place for this to happen...instead of like 4 for the last one. The big ridge slows the flow down and allows for a better chance of phasing.

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doug1991

doug1991

Posted
Posted

It does but we've got too much shading. Not enough sun in the winter. Plus after the severe last May the 100' pines make me a little nervous. Love to thin out the back but we can't afford it right now.

Where are you on Plain Rd?

I hear ya on the pine trees. They can be really dangerous. Im across from the vetinary hospital. on the same side of the brook.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Just look at what's been going on across CA and parts of the SW...it's been insanely wet, usually in Nina's it's the Pacific Northwest that's seeing wetter than normal conditions not the entire west coast.

Nina schmina, just a little fact for you , LA area broke precip records set in 1970 Strong Nina and great winter with a KU

42d4d0aa-c9c4-83fe.jpg

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

Remember there's never ..EVER been a KU in a strong Nina....You're setting yourself up for a big disappointment

lol you really need to lay off the Nina references. They haven't done you any good so far

This is NOT a typically La Nina that we're in right now. Note the insane blocking that has persisted all month. In addition, we now have a weak low frequency MJO wave progressing east into the Pacific.

If there is a setup for a KU in a La Nina, this would be it.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

You gotta admit though, ECM ens were mainly misses for our region leading up to this current storm with the exception of those 2 weenie-fest runs. It seems the potential Dec 25-27 system has far better odds already than that last one did.

That last one definitely taught me not to hug the ECMWF even when it's in it's "bullseye" range especially when it's a dramatic shift from previous runs

I guess that depends on how you look at it :)

Given the noted failure of the EC around this time frame with this storm do we really take what it says now at face value given the ensembles?

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted

If you go by just the DJF reading than there are 7

1949-1950

1974-1975

1975-1976

1988-1989

1998-1999

1999-2000

2007-2008

uh oh...88/89 was the least snowy season ever at bdl

98/99 and 99/00 were also way below normal with lots of warm spells mixed in...

07/08 was good for snow but mostly mid size events..nothing spectacular.

74/75 and 75/76 i do not believe anything real exciting happened either but I am not 100pct sure on that one...and i do not know anything about 49/50

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

lol you really need to lay off the Nina references. They haven't done you any good so far

This is NOT a typically La Nina that we're in right now. Note the insane blocking that has persisted all month. In addition, we now have a weak low frequency MJO wave progressing east into the Pacific.

If there is a setup for a KU in a La Nina, this would be it.

You're bound to get one right sooner or later. Hopefully this is it

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

uh oh...88/89 was the least snowy season ever at bdl

98/99 and 99/00 were also way below normal with lots of warm spells mixed in...

07/08 was good for snow but mostly mid size events..nothing spectacular.

74/75 and 75/76 i do not believe anything real exciting happened either but I am not 100pct sure on that one...and i do not know anything about 49/50

49-50 was average at BDL with 49.1''

74-75 was a mistake on my part...not a strong Nina...meant to say 73-74 which had 35.8'' at BDL

75-76 had 46.8''

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Kbosch

Kbosch

Posted
Posted

This is a great point too...it's not like we really have a whole large sample size to work with here.

Yeah the sample size is pretty small. I think we know physically why it's tougher. However, the pattern about to come forth is very atypical of La Nina. The Rockies ridge is modeled to be massive along with strong energy coming from the SW. We only need 2 things that have to come into place for this to happen...instead of like 4 for the last one. The big ridge slows the flow down and allows for a better chance of phasing.

Hmmm so we have a) a small sample size for a strong Nina plus b ) an anomalous pattern during it and c) an easy setup now which even goes back to the basis for the thread by Tip. I'm not trying to talk myself into it too much, but it definitely seems like there is a big reason to be excited, or at least hopeful. Keeping an open mind here in both directions would seem prudent. Don't assume KU and don't assume no KU.

If we can have a seemingly historic run of whiffs in the extreme patterns why can't we be historic in bringing in a KU?

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Man do people have a fetish for KU's...so if we actually get a storm and it turns out to be a 4-8'' type deal are people going to be upset?

Heck no, I always root for the best/ well worst if you are Tip, whatever the outcome.there are only a few here who would be, you know who they are. But that's their fetish and I can not say it's a bad fetish just few and far between.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

I could be wrong.....but I think a big storm comes out of this pattern. The only way I could see a more moderate event is if we get a scrapper.

I agree, I think there is definitely potential for a rather large storm to come out of this pattern, we have seen some already but they have just been missing us lol.

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