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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

We have a trip scheduled to the Berks with all the nieces and nephews for a day of tubing on the 26th..so i was hoping it was over by then...but it doesn't appear to be working out that way. I guess i can hope now that it holds off until late Sunday

Where? It'll be great if it snows while tubing. The driving on curvy mountain roads in heavy snow is part of the adventure.lol

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

It's a strong one as we thought. Hopefully this storm can break the no KU curse.

This morning, the AO stood at -4.076. It is forecast to bottom out over the next day or two. Already, this is the lowest AO reading in December during a La Niña with ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of -1.00°C or colder.

The ensembles are now providing a firmer signal that the current AO- regime will likely come to an end during the first week in January. That would be consistent with the three past severe December blocking episodes during La Niña events (albeit weaker ones than the current La Niña). At the same time, the EPO is forecast to be climbing. Hence, the stage is being set for a pattern change after December that should see frequent troughing in the East give way to ridging and milder readings. Before then, one or two light to possibly moderate snowfall events remain possible for the big cities of the East. If some past La Niña episodes are relevant, 25%-30% of the season's snowfall could have fallen by the end of December (a bleak prospect given the snow dearth to date).

After having looked back at pre-1950 data for a larger sample of La Niña events, a grim statistic stands out: No KU-type storm has occurred with a strong La Niña as strong as the current one (R3.4 anomaly currently at -1.5°C). The clipper that exploded into a paralyzing Mid-Atlantic blizzard in December 1909 occurred when the R3.4 anomalies were around -1.00°C. No events occured with a La Niña anywhere close to as strong as the present one. All the other KU-type events going back to 1871 occurred with R3.4 anomalies that were milder than the December 1909 figure (-0.50°C to -0.85°C accounts for most of the La Niña KU-type events). Significant Midwest/Great Lakes (U.S. into Ontario/Quebec) have, on occasion, occurred with R3.4 anomalies < -1.00°C. Given the expansive sample, barring consistent and strong support from multiple models and ensemble systems, any model or ensemble system that shows a KU-type snowstorm when the La Niña is as strong as it currently is (even the Euro or Euro ensembles) is very likely a suspect run(s).

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
Posted

It's a strong one as we thought. Hopefully this storm can break the no KU curse.

I'm by no means calling for a KU this weekend...but I don't know we need to completely put it off the table either. Many have already commented how anomalous this pattern is for a Nina...its just not behaving like we should expect...seems like we shouldn't be shocked by any outcome at this point, including a KU.

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted

The only thing that bothers me is why are so many ensemble members out ot sea with the weekend solution, its a lot of members and it is hard to ignore. I see all these posts worrying about mixing, let us hope that we have to worry about that..esp along and just inland from the coastal plain. Are there really more models showing a big hit for sne than at this point in the game as compared to this stage of the game with the current storm. The current storm was ONLY a good hit for a very very small part of esne.

There is no place more snow starved that the ct valley region between last year and so far this year, even four or five inches seems hard to fathom right now.

i wouldnt worry about mixing too much. at this point that would require a perfect phase and a well placed ridge out west.....both things will be extremely difficult to come by. living on this side of the HV, i know how these coastal phase issues play out for us, 9 times out of 10.

if anything, i would be much more worried about OTS due to a late phase.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

I'm by no means calling for a KU this weekend...but I don't know we need to completely put it off the table either. Many have already commented how anomalous this pattern is for a Nina...its just not behaving like we should expect...seems like we shouldn't be shocked by any outcome at this point, including a KU.

Agreed...when you have a pattern that is as crazy and as anomalous as this one expect anything to happen.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I'm usually one of the last to chuck 'em around too...maybe I drank too much egg nog...but I'm feeling good about this weekend. just hoping the forecast for Sunday doesn't trend towards heavy heavy depression.

Yeah I have a better feeling as well, I guess I'm just holding things in check being 5+ days out.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

There was a period where it appeared this Nina was headed towards record territories but when we really saw the last major push from the MJO in late fall which really helped to hinder cooling and even causing some temporary warming the Nina hasn't done a whole much to really intensify to though levels again. Unless we see another strong push in the upcoming weeks this will probably just be a strong Nina rather than a historic one.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

I'm by no means calling for a KU this weekend...but I don't know we need to completely put it off the table either. Many have already commented how anomalous this pattern is for a Nina...its just not behaving like we should expect...seems like we shouldn't be shocked by any outcome at this point, including a KU.

I agree. I'm not saying it can't/won't happen since there is a first time for everything. After what happened on the Cape yesterday..we can def. see that.

But I just think we should all be happy with a moderate snowstorm..and if models continue to knock houses down , lift roofs off gas stations, drop 2-4 feet of snow, knock power out to the entirety of SNE for weeks,and break every skyscraper window like Tip is forecasting then I'm all in.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I'm usually one of the last to chuck 'em around too...maybe I drank too much egg nog...but I'm feeling good about this weekend. just hoping the forecast for Sunday doesn't trend towards heavy heavy depression.

That can be avoided by not getting emotionally involved... with that said, I feel pretty emotionally and physically removed from this system and my gut says you guys in the I-95 corridor from NYC to BOS get destroyed in this. It would be very, very difficult to not get heavy heavy excited if I lived down there :thumbsup:

For the ski area up here I'm forecasting cloudy to partly cloudy skies Sun/Mon (while you guys get crushed) with a chance of upslope snow showers late Monday and Tuesday. The weenie in me would love to forecast a heavy snow event up here, but honestly don't see that happening as I doubt the block disappears in time. The only way something would come further up into central/northern New England is if the H5 pulls a 00z GGEM.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I agree. I'm not saying it can't/won't happen since there is a first time for everything. After what happened on the Cape yesterday..we can def. see that.

But I just think we should all be happy with a moderate snowstorm..and if models continue to knock houses down , lift roofs off gas stations, drop 2-4 feet of snow, knock power out to the entirety of SNE for weeks,and break every skyscraper window like Tip is forecasting then I'm all in.

:lmao:

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