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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Great summary...although I don't the fuss over the GFS QPF. 6z was wide right...but 0z was 1"+ for almost all the area.

While I get people are a little gun shy after this past week...as you just summarized...I think we have much better model agreement on this weekend's event than we ever had on last weekend's event...a good 6 days out too. Yeah there's a little bit of jumping around here and there...but everything is in agreement there should be some sort of event...and when models are in this sort of agreement this far out, history says that's more often than not a positive sign. Yeah I'd be hesitant to go gung-ho on a historic event...even though the GGEM and Euro hinted at it last night...far too early to go balls to the wall. But I think we have all the signs of at least a moderate event for most of the region.

And isn't that the joy in this ...? We got well above 50% for at least a low-mid range NESDIS rated event, and wiggle room up the echelon to both fantasize, but most importantly not discount as possible to mull over. Sweet.

Not that you asked, but personally I don't need a 30" of snow and 70mph winds knocking out power for days to have a good time. I'd be perfectly contented with 4-8" events in a rapid fire pattern. The historic storms are great but man oh man, if you are not prepared the novelty wears off with extreme rapidity once it gets underway.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Yes I do.

Btw, the prelim discussion from NCEP heavily weights the ECM operational with it's ensemble cluster for the event, given to observed satellite trends over the Pacific appearing - so far - to be a better fit for the ECM evolution down stream.

That my friends is a big time nod for this bad boy!

I tend to agree..I think I'm more and more in the camp of something closer to the coast, rather than a 40N65W type thing.

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

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Yes I do.

Btw, the prelim discussion from NCEP heavily weights the ECM operational with it's ensemble cluster for the event, given to observed satellite trends over the Pacific appearing - so far - to be a better fit for the ECM evolution down stream.

That my friends is a big time nod for this bad boy!

Upton is on board as well.

All I'm saying is if no one is driving the bus for this thing...hand over the keys...I'll take the wheel weight_lift.gif

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doug1991

doug1991

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Different pattern this year. We'll get our storms.

Greenfield's average is about 55" so after 2 sub par winters things need to balance out at some point.

:snowman:

I agree. I hope they balance out soon. LOL

BTW ive always liked your house. Set back from the road with alot of trees around. Stay pretty cool in the summer?

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

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I agree. I hope they balance out soon. LOL

BTW ive always liked your house. Set back from the road with alot of trees around. Stay pretty cool in the summer?

It does but we've got too much shading. Not enough sun in the winter. Plus after the severe last May the 100' pines make me a little nervous. Love to thin out the back but we can't afford it right now.

Where are you on Plain Rd?

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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And isn't that the joy in this ...? We got well above 50% for at least a low-mid range NESDIS rated event, and wiggle room up the echelon to both fantasize, but most importantly not discount as possible to mull over. Sweet.

Not that you asked, but personally I don't need a 30" of snow and 70mph winds knocking out power for days to have a good time. I'd be perfectly contented with 4-8" events in a rapid fire pattern. The historic storms are great but man oh man, if you are not prepared the novelty wears off with extreme rapidity once it gets underway.

Violently disagree, dry powder snow and 70 mph winds, scattered power issues, **** I didn't even lose power in 78s cake. I will take the Euro in a heartbeat.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Just bustin' ya.:thumbsup:

My enthusiasm is also in check, I'm just enjoying the models as they evolve. I'd give until Thursday 12z.. By then we should really have a good idea.

Yeah I think any enthusiasm should be in check for now, but I feel like this one has better potential then the last one (although don't tell the folks down the Cape..lol).

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mattb65

mattb65

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Ordinarily... I'd ride the ECM ens all the way, but after this latest deblacle, they can bl** me and I'm still a bit more nervous than usual.

You gotta admit though, ECM ens were mainly misses for our region leading up to this current storm with the exception of those 2 weenie-fest runs. It seems the potential Dec 25-27 system has far better odds already than that last one did.

That last one definitely taught me not to hug the ECMWF even when it's in it's "bullseye" range especially when it's a dramatic shift from previous runs

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