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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CCPSUSuperstorm2010

CCPSUSuperstorm2010

Posted
Posted

This has the makings of a classic bomb at least from I95 corridor points south and east across SNE. I would go with a track further offshore then the EURO given the PNA ridging is modeled further east as some have already talked about. I mean I would say a closer track then the last storm, but southeast of ACK is a good bet, with a big bomb potential given the nature of the H5 troughing and energy available within the jet. Also if you have the chance take a look at the water vapor imagery for the NE PAC ocean on the NHC site. You can clearly see the longwave trough that will be responsible for the main piece of energy with this storm system. Already quite intense. I like the looks of this system as well. Someone mentioned an excellent point earlier this morning, the fresh new snow cover should allow for better radiational cooling when it comes to Friday and Saturday as highs won't get above freezing and lows should be in the 20s even for Cape Cod, MA. With such a temperature gradient on the western wall of the Gulf Stream, it would only make sense for the models to show a bomb of a storm for the region, even if it may be more off the coast.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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This has the makings of a classic bomb at least from I95 corridor points south and east across SNE. I would go with a track further offshore then the EURO given the PNA ridging is modeled further east as some have already talked about. I mean I would say a closer track then the last storm, but southeast of ACK is a good bet, with a big bomb potential given the nature of the H5 troughing and energy available within the jet. Also if you have the chance take a look at the water vapor imagery for the NE PAC ocean on the NHC site. You can clearly see the longwave trough that will be responsible for the main piece of energy with this storm system. Already quite intense. I like the looks of this system as well. Someone mentioned an excellent point earlier this morning, the fresh new snow cover should allow for better radiational cooling when it comes to Friday and Saturday as highs won't get above freezing and lows should be in the 20s even for Cape Cod, MA. With such a temperature gradient on the western wall of the Gulf Stream, it would only make sense for the models to show a bomb of a storm for the region, even if it may be more off the coast.

the snow pack is nice for setting up a cold antecedent air mass...but better than 9/10 times the storm will just go where the upper levels want it to go.

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

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surprised not to see more chatter about last night's Euro in this thread. looks like it hits a lot of the region pretty good. And its been fairly consistent with showing some sort of storm the past few days. The Euro was pretty steadfast showing an OTS solution last week (other than a couple hiccup runs last Thursday) and ended up being right. We actually have the Euro on board for a storm this time around and everyone is so glum.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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surprised not to see more chatter about last night's Euro in this thread. looks like it hits a lot of the region pretty good. And its been fairly consistent with showing some sort of storm the past few days. The Euro was pretty steadfast showing an OTS solution last week (other than a couple hiccup runs last Thursday) and ended up being right. We actually have the Euro on board for a storm this time around and everyone is so glum.

The immeidate bands of snow in the area are a bit of a surprise for those that had abandoned this altogether and taking attention away from this potential for the time being. It should, too actually.

Have glanced over the 00z runs…

The UKMET is not out to sea – not sure who thinks that, but they would be mistaken. That solution would, just beyond that 144-hr frame, do a close and capture scenario, sending a wall of heavy QPF NW into the upper MA/NE regions from the SE. But I don’t think that solution is going to happen. The model looks funky aloft over SE Canada and the Maritimes, and with the PNA rising like that the longitudinal component along about 35N would be contracting, not lengthening.

Interesting how the GFS run was sort of sparse on QPF. I did see the 06z, it’s a more powerful storm despite being a near miss. I don’t think that the “near miss” appearance there is really that big a deal with 5 days to go, particularly with limited agreement, and also considering the GFS has a slight longitudinal bias in the middle range. It still fits inside expectation for acceptable error and any time if you saw a solution like that you're brows would rise.

00z ECM destroys everyone with 24 hours of choking heavy snow and wind. 15-30” society disruptor on that run.

The GGEM (Canadian) was similar, but slightly further W – this is acceptable considering the westerly bias of this particular model, at this type of time lead. Accounting for that places a very deep and powerful coastal bomb more in line with the 00z ECM. Both the ECM and GGEM show -3 to -4SD heights in quasi-closed mid level circulation placed ideally where the teleconnector spread suggests a negative anomaly should be during the D4-10 time range (rising PNA balance with relaxed NAO but still negative – awesome combo there btw!). If taken literally with neolithic incompetence ... it would be snow to rain to wind whipped snow.

The “GONAPS” model is interestingly similar to the UKMET, but that model sucks pretty much all the time so that could be mere coincidence.

All in all I say still very much on track and confidence should only grow off that suite of guidance. I scanned the GFS ensemble members and I don’t see anything unusually stochastic about the depictions – pretty much standard variability for a D5-6 type range. In fact, having near half the members on board is actually above average. Also, noting a slight nudge east of the ECM, certainly the GGEM among those members that do impact the MA to Ne w England.

No need for Zanax just yet.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

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surprised not to see more chatter about last night's Euro in this thread. looks like it hits a lot of the region pretty good. And its been fairly consistent with showing some sort of storm the past few days. The Euro was pretty steadfast showing an OTS solution last week (other than a couple hiccup runs last Thursday) and ended up being right. We actually have the Euro on board for a storm this time around and everyone is so glum.

Gun shy and a little ascared...

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted

surprised not to see more chatter about last night's Euro in this thread. looks like it hits a lot of the region pretty good. And its been fairly consistent with showing some sort of storm the past few days. The Euro was pretty steadfast showing an OTS solution last week (other than a couple hiccup runs last Thursday) and ended up being right. We actually have the Euro on board for a storm this time around and everyone is so glum.

My guess is that many are a bit gun shy after what happened last Thursday. I only have limited access to models and can only go with what people post here, and a few stray links. I won't get too invested in this until Thursday, as I can't afford to exhaust myself on may or may not be storm threats. Folks like Tip and Will do help ease me into things and keep me sane.

Always hoping for the best, while keeping the noose within arms reach.

Edit: same time post as Dave with the "gun shy" comment. Must mean one of two things, either great minds think alike, or psychotic individuals are always in sync.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
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The immeidate bands of snow in the area are a bit of a surprise for those that had abandoned this altogether and taking attention away from this potential for the time being. It should, too actually.

Have glanced over the 00z runs…

The UKMET is not out to sea – not sure who thinks that, but they would be mistaken. That solution would, just beyond that 144-hr frame, do a close and capture scenario, sending a wall of heavy QPF NW into the upper MA/NE regions from the SE. But I don’t think that solution is going to happen. The model looks funky aloft over SE Canada and the Maritimes, and with the PNA rising like that the longitudinal component along about 35N would be contracting, not lengthening.

Interesting how the GFS run was sort of sparse on QPF. I did see the 06z, it’s a more powerful storm despite being a near miss. I don’t think that the “near miss” appearance there is really that big a deal with 5 days to go, particularly with limited agreement, and also considering the GFS has a slight longitudinal bias in the middle range. It still fits inside expectation for acceptable error and any time if you saw a solution like that you're brows would rise.

00z ECM destroys everyone with 24 hours of choking heavy snow and wind. 15-30” society disruptor on that run.

The GGEM (Canadian) was similar, but slightly further W – this is acceptable considering the westerly bias of this particular model, at this type of time lead. Accounting for that places a very deep and powerful coastal bomb more in line with the 00z ECM. Both the ECM and GGEM show -3 to -4SD heights in quasi-closed mid level circulation placed ideally where the teleconnector spread suggests a negative anomaly should be during the D4-10 time range (rising PNA balance with relaxed NAO but still negative – awesome combo there btw!). If taken literally with neolithic incompetence ... it would be snow to rain to wind whipped snow.

The “GONAPS” model is interestingly similar to the UKMET, but that model sucks pretty much all the time so that could be mere coincidence.

All in all I say still very much on track and confidence should only grow off that suite of guidance. I scanned the GFS ensemble members and I don’t see anything unusually stochastic about the depictions – pretty much standard variability for a D5-6 type range. In fact, having near half the members on board is actually above average. Also, noting a slight nudge east of the ECM, certainly the GGEM among those members that do impact the MA to Ne w England.

No need for Zanax just yet.

So it sounds like you think the overall setup and teleconnections at least from this range out, would argue for something close to the coast or perhaps a somewhat n and w trend vs. a suppressor?

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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I think the caution is of course warranted after this past week. Models are making some serious changes every 12 hours in the handling of all the features and although we know there is going to be a huge storm the question is where. I probably would lean towards persistence but with a nod NW this time which would put it solidly into the SE 1/3 of New England/I95 type event through ORH SE NH etc.

Just my guess for now.

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
Posted

The immeidate bands of snow in the area are a bit of a surprise for those that had abandoned this altogether and taking attention away from this potential for the time being. It should, too actually.

Have glanced over the 00z runs…

The UKMET is not out to sea – not sure who thinks that, but they would be mistaken. That solution would, just beyond that 144-hr frame, do a close and capture scenario, sending a wall of heavy QPF NW into the upper MA/NE regions from the SE. But I don’t think that solution is going to happen. The model looks funky aloft over SE Canada and the Maritimes, and with the PNA rising like that the longitudinal component along about 35N would be contracting, not lengthening.

Interesting how the GFS run was sort of sparse on QPF. I did see the 06z, it’s a more powerful storm despite being a near miss. I don’t think that the “near miss” appearance there is really that big a deal with 5 days to go, particularly with limited agreement, and also considering the GFS has a slight longitudinal bias in the middle range. It still fits inside expectation for acceptable error and any time if you saw a solution like that you're brows would rise.

00z ECM destroys everyone with 24 hours of choking heavy snow and wind. 15-30” society disruptor on that run.

The GGEM (Canadian) was similar, but slightly further W – this is acceptable considering the westerly bias of this particular model, at this type of time lead. Accounting for that places a very deep and powerful coastal bomb more in line with the 00z ECM. Both the ECM and GGEM show -3 to -4SD heights in quasi-closed mid level circulation placed ideally where the teleconnector spread suggests a negative anomaly should be during the D4-10 time range (rising PNA balance with relaxed NAO but still negative – awesome combo there btw!). If taken literally with neolithic incompetence ... it would be snow to rain to wind whipped snow.

The “GONAPS” model is interestingly similar to the UKMET, but that model sucks pretty much all the time so that could be mere coincidence.

All in all I say still very much on track and confidence should only grow off that suite of guidance. I scanned the GFS ensemble members and I don’t see anything unusually stochastic about the depictions – pretty much standard variability for a D5-6 type range. In fact, having near half the members on board is actually above average. Also, noting a slight nudge east of the ECM, certainly the GGEM among those members that do impact the MA to Ne w England.

No need for Zanax just yet.

Great summary...although I don't the fuss over the GFS QPF. 6z was wide right...but 0z was 1"+ for almost all the area.

While I get people are a little gun shy after this past week...as you just summarized...I think we have much better model agreement on this weekend's event than we ever had on last weekend's event...a good 6 days out too. Yeah there's a little bit of jumping around here and there...but everything is in agreement there should be some sort of event...and when models are in this sort of agreement this far out, history says that's more often than not a positive sign. Yeah I'd be hesitant to go gung-ho on a historic event...even though the GGEM and Euro hinted at it last night...far too early to go balls to the wall. But I think we have all the signs of at least a moderate event for most of the region.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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So it sounds like you think the overall setup and teleconnections at least from this range out, would argue for something close to the coast or perhaps a somewhat n and w trend vs. a suppressor?

Yes I do.

Btw, the prelim discussion from NCEP heavily weights the ECM operational with it's ensemble cluster for the event, given to observed satellite trends over the Pacific appearing - so far - to be a better fit for the ECM evolution down stream.

That my friends is a big time nod for this bad boy!

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Yes I do.

Btw, the prelim discussion from NCEP heavily weights the ECM operational with it's ensemble cluster for the event, given to observed satellite trends over the Pacific appearing - so far - to be a better fit for the ECM evolution down stream.

That my friends is a big time nod for this bad boy!

Thanks for your response. It seems to me the hobbyist in a difficult period of model mayhem, that there are 2 things to pay attention to: 1) the teleconnections/overall setup and 2) real time data.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
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Yes I do.

Btw, the prelim discussion from NCEP heavily weights the ECM operational with it's ensemble cluster for the event, given to observed satellite trends over the Pacific appearing - so far - to be a better fit for the ECM evolution down stream.

That my friends is a big time nod for this bad boy!

and a big time nod for all the weenies on this board to stay glued to their monitors for every model run.

:snowman:

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CCPSUSuperstorm2010

CCPSUSuperstorm2010

Posted
Posted

The immeidate bands of snow in the area are a bit of a surprise for those that had abandoned this altogether and taking attention away from this potential for the time being. It should, too actually.

Have glanced over the 00z runs…

The UKMET is not out to sea – not sure who thinks that, but they would be mistaken. That solution would, just beyond that 144-hr frame, do a close and capture scenario, sending a wall of heavy QPF NW into the upper MA/NE regions from the SE. But I don’t think that solution is going to happen. The model looks funky aloft over SE Canada and the Maritimes, and with the PNA rising like that the longitudinal component along about 35N would be contracting, not lengthening.

Interesting how the GFS run was sort of sparse on QPF. I did see the 06z, it’s a more powerful storm despite being a near miss. I don’t think that the “near miss” appearance there is really that big a deal with 5 days to go, particularly with limited agreement, and also considering the GFS has a slight longitudinal bias in the middle range. It still fits inside expectation for acceptable error and any time if you saw a solution like that you're brows would rise.

00z ECM destroys everyone with 24 hours of choking heavy snow and wind. 15-30” society disruptor on that run.

The GGEM (Canadian) was similar, but slightly further W – this is acceptable considering the westerly bias of this particular model, at this type of time lead. Accounting for that places a very deep and powerful coastal bomb more in line with the 00z ECM. Both the ECM and GGEM show -3 to -4SD heights in quasi-closed mid level circulation placed ideally where the teleconnector spread suggests a negative anomaly should be during the D4-10 time range (rising PNA balance with relaxed NAO but still negative – awesome combo there btw!). If taken literally with neolithic incompetence ... it would be snow to rain to wind whipped snow.

The “GONAPS” model is interestingly similar to the UKMET, but that model sucks pretty much all the time so that could be mere coincidence.

All in all I say still very much on track and confidence should only grow off that suite of guidance. I scanned the GFS ensemble members and I don’t see anything unusually stochastic about the depictions – pretty much standard variability for a D5-6 type range. In fact, having near half the members on board is actually above average. Also, noting a slight nudge east of the ECM, certainly the GGEM among those members that do impact the MA to Ne w England.

No need for Zanax just yet.

I strongly agree John.

Scott, I didn't think that the snow pack would have as much to do with it, then just create a colder air mass in place. Although that would argue that with a colder air mass, comes a stronger temperature gradient over the western Gulf Stream wall. Perhaps a very favorable setup for extreme cyclogenesis, much stronger pressure falls then our latest out to sea juggernaut.

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