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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

i think the signals are pretty strong overall that something is coming...

where exactly it tracks who knows...though i'd suspect the trend will be offshore of SNE limiting any mix issues to perhaps MBY...

the only "concern" i have (and given the time frame it's not really an issue because we are still at the edge of model la-la land) is the absolute bombing nature of this storm on most guidance. i don't love seeing that because it tends to indicate that a lot of features are co-locating perfectly at T>100hrs...and it's a lower probability, imo, of all those pieces of the puzzle coming together quite so perfectly. either way though...i like the odds on this one.

Nice thoughts Phil and basically where I stand at this point. The overwhelming signals are there for something. I really think the PNA spike is slowing this potential down as that ridge develops out west. I think the favorable track is just offshore as well. We're going to have a nice snowpack and the airmass will be cold in the wake of this departing system, which will also help to tighten the gradient as this system exits the Carolina coastline. This could be a classic.

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CCPSUSuperstorm2010

CCPSUSuperstorm2010

Posted
Posted

i think the signals are pretty strong overall that something is coming...

where exactly it tracks who knows...though i'd suspect the trend will be offshore of SNE limiting any mix issues to perhaps MBY...

the only "concern" i have (and given the time frame it's not really an issue because we are still at the edge of model la-la land) is the absolute bombing nature of this storm on most guidance. i don't love seeing that because it tends to indicate that a lot of features are co-locating perfectly at T>100hrs...and it's a lower probability, imo, of all those pieces of the puzzle coming together quite so perfectly. either way though...i like the odds on this one.

I totally agree Phil, this looks like a I95 corridor special. PNA spike allows this to be slower as well. Key will be the amount and timing of the two phasing shortwaves as well as where this large North Atlantic vortex will be located.

Nice thoughts Phil and basically where I stand at this point. The overwhelming signals are there for something. I really think the PNA spike is slowing this potential down as that ridge develops out west. I think the favorable track is just offshore as well. We're going to have a nice snowpack and the airmass will be cold in the wake of this departing system, which will also help to tighten the gradient as this system exits the Carolina coastline. This could be a classic.

I agree Taunton, this has the looking of a classic nor'easter, especially with the EURO bombing this low out, I mean down to the mid 960s range, that is amazing even for a high resolution global model. Now if only we can get a solution similar to this within 36 hours.

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted

What are folks thoughts on the timing differences between the GFS and EC? I only see the 24 hr increments on the EC, so I can't see what's happening when. THanks.

????? I'd say that position blows.:thumbsdown:

Also, looks like most of the members of the 00z gfs ens are east/se of the ops run. Several way ots. Disappointing to see that.

00Z GEFS still south and east of OPS GFS and even EC with a lot of clustering to the SE of the BM. ECEM also east of OP run.

Some positive signs though off of GEFS is the appearance of around -2 SD winds @ H250 across NY/NE on Monday indicating potential slowing/stalling of system.

Also near -2 SD NE winds @ 850 same area/time allowing for increased/above normal moisture flux/ > than normal pwats

I think we may not see too much shift in the ensembles west for another day or so but by later tomorrow night more so Friday I think you'll start to see at least a few more members jog west.

I also like the fact that this upcoming system has more ridging out west. This ridge will be critical as to where it sets up: I don't like the fact that the OP models have it more across the Plains vs. farther west like over the Rockies or just west of there.

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

It scares me a little for up here. It closes off and gets captured south of LI. Great for you guys, but concerning for me despite respectable QPF. Jan 1996 had a brutal latitudinal gradient through MA/NH. I might throw fits like you if the Mid Atl gets another HECS and I'm left dry. :snowman:

This is starting to feel like the December ku a year ago.. Where the precip just gets eatin up by dry air when it gets to us...

Merrimack valley snowhole ftw again!

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

i think the signals are pretty strong overall that something is coming...

where exactly it tracks who knows...though i'd suspect the trend will be offshore of SNE limiting any mix issues to perhaps MBY...

the only "concern" i have (and given the time frame it's not really an issue because we are still at the edge of model la-la land) is the absolute bombing nature of this storm on most guidance. i don't love seeing that because it tends to indicate that a lot of features are co-locating perfectly at T>100hrs...and it's a lower probability, imo, of all those pieces of the puzzle coming together quite so perfectly. either way though...i like the odds on this one.

This is an excellent point... you'd rather see a moderate storm that trends towards a bomb once more data is ingested, instead of a bomb being depicted so far out as everything has to continue to happen *exactly* as the models are showing Days 1-5 to get to the Day 6 solution.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

This is an excellent point... you'd rather see a moderate storm that trends towards a bomb once more data is ingested, instead of a bomb being depicted so far out as everything has to continue to happen *exactly* as the models are showing Days 1-5 to get to the Day 6 solution.

we'll see how things evolve. i'm definitely not saying it can't be an absolute monster LP as is being depicted right now because some of the reasons for the rapid deepening are players on the field that won't be going anywhere (they are like the QB and the O-line...). it's just what skill players will be out there?...crappy analogy but yeah you get my point.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

00Z GEFS still south and east of OPS GFS and even EC with a lot of clustering to the SE of the BM. ECEM also east of OP run.

Some positive signs though off of GEFS is the appearance of around -2 SD winds @ H250 across NY/NE on Monday indicating potential slowing/stalling of system.

Also near -2 SD NE winds @ 850 same area/time allowing for increased/above normal moisture flux/ > than normal pwats

I think we may not see too much shift in the ensembles west for another day or so but by later tomorrow night more so Friday I think you'll start to see at least a few more members jog west.

I also like the fact that this upcoming system has more ridging out west. This ridge will be critical as to where it sets up: I don't like the fact that the OP models have it more across the Plains vs. farther west like over the Rockies or just west of there.

That ridge position is very 1978-esque lol. But yeah, that seems further east than most KU events.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Ok....so as is typical us here in the interior are worried about the curse of 2010 continuing. Those on the Cape, fresh off their victory and liking the enembles. Here is the question: Do the synoptics argue for a storm that will eventually track further n and w or do they argue for a more suppressed track? Unfortunately I can't read maps. It doesn't seem that there is a strong enough PV that would supress this, right? Do the analogs argue for suppression? Jan 96, while painful for ya'll up north looked like a storm that would have difficulty coming all the way up. For the forecasters or wannabees in a year of model madness, stepping away from the model solutions, what do you think?

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

we'll see how things evolve. i'm definitely not saying it can't be an absolute monster LP as is being depicted right now because some of the reasons for the rapid deepening are players on the field that won't be going anywhere (they are like the QB and the O-line...). it's just what skill players will be out there?...crappy analogy but yeah you get my point.

Yeah definintely agree. Still, a lot of these solutions are hedging on the atmosphere continuing to evolve as modeled over the next several days. All it takes is one feature ending up slower or faster than progged and you miss the HECS bomb... I can't believe how quickly folks are talking up a possible historic storm again 6 days out after what just happened. I do think there's a high chance to likely chance of at least a moderate snowfall for eastern areas... but I'd save the historic talk for another 72-96 hours.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

we'll see how things evolve. i'm definitely not saying it can't be an absolute monster LP as is being depicted right now because some of the reasons for the rapid deepening are players on the field that won't be going anywhere (they are like the QB and the O-line...). it's just what skill players will be out there?...crappy analogy but yeah you get my point.

Actually a very good analogy let's just hope the punters last name is not Dodge.

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

Yeah definintely agree. Still, a lot of these solutions are hedging on the atmosphere continuing to evolve as modeled over the next several days. All it takes is one feature ending up slower or faster than progged and you miss the HECS bomb... I can't believe how quickly folks are talking up a possible historic storm again 6 days out after what just happened. I do think there's a high chance to likely chance of at least a moderate snowfall for eastern areas... but I'd save the historic talk for another 72-96 hours.

I think people are talking the possibility because there aren't a lot of players here and every model has the storm at this point an most are a hit.. good odds IMO

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

lol looks like there was a huge weenie party in here last night. Euro looks pretty fun. Anyone have QPF? RH fields aren't the most impressive

it's pretty impressive...>1" for most of the region.

it's just a complete bomb though. 968 south of ACK. the track is interesting as you can see it feeling the residual effects of this blocking regime. in some respects, not unlike what we just went through with guidance kind of splitting in themes with a pull NW or shunt NE.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

it's pretty impressive...>1" for most of the region.

it's just a complete bomb though. 968 south of ACK. the track is interesting as you can see it feeling the residual effects of this blocking regime. in some respects, not unlike what we just went through with guidance kind of splitting in themes with a pull NW or shunt NE.

I'd say an I-95 snowstorm with this thing moving ENE south of ACK looks more likely than anything coming closer to the coast or getting a pull NW just because these blocking patterns tend to be slow to break down... or at least models like to break them down too quickly.

That's why I really don't expect anything from this system up here.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Yeah definintely agree. Still, a lot of these solutions are hedging on the atmosphere continuing to evolve as modeled over the next several days. All it takes is one feature ending up slower or faster than progged and you miss the HECS bomb... I can't believe how quickly folks are talking up a possible historic storm again 6 days out after what just happened. I do think there's a high chance to likely chance of at least a moderate snowfall for eastern areas... but I'd save the historic talk for another 72-96 hours.

Well as modeled, it is historic. Take it for what it is and watch it evolve. I think a moderate event is in the cards at this time.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

it's pretty impressive...>1" for most of the region.

it's just a complete bomb though. 968 south of ACK. the track is interesting as you can see it feeling the residual effects of this blocking regime. in some respects, not unlike what we just went through with guidance kind of splitting in themes with a pull NW or shunt NE.

For us westerners I'd rather not see this thing wind up so tight that there is a massive qpf gradient leaving the coast buried and W. of ORH flurries.

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