Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

[40/70 Benchmark]

968mb low a tic s of ACK and a 1028mb high over MN=56mb gradient.

1978 had 1052 high just NW of MN and a 984 low near the BM=64mb gradient.

We probably won't see this verify quite so intense, but just goes to show you what type of beast is being modeled.

Just to expound a bit on the magnitude of what is being modeled here: March 1993 saw a 1024mb high coupled with a 964 mb low, which is ironically equal to the gradient modeled on the 00z EURO.....only a much more favorable track for us.

1996 was a mere 984-1032mb gradient.

Man, having to be up in 5 hrs ftl; I'm out.

[ORH_wxman]

Just to expound a bit on the magnitude of what is being modeled here: March 1993 saw a 1024mb high coupled with a 964 mb low, which is ironically equal to the gradient modeled on the 00z EURO.....only a much more favorable track for us.

1996 was a mere 984-1032mb gradient.

Man, having to be up in 5 hrs ftl; I'm out.

[weatherwiz]

Just to expound a bit on the magnitude of what is being modeled here: March 1993 saw a 1024mb high coupled with a 964 mb low, which is ironically equal to the gradient modeled on the 00z EURO.....only a much more favorable track for us.

1996 was a mere 984-1032mb gradient.

Man, having to be up in 5 hrs ftl; I'm out.

I've never seen you post like this.

Seeing that pressure gradient must have tickled your fanny.

[adamrivers]

This seems to have legit potential.....wow. Driving to Buffalo on Sunday morning for the Pats game.....shouldn't be bad in NY, but the question is, will we be able to get to the state line?

[dendrite]

EC ens mean has come west a bit. Looks like a track over, or slightly inside, the BM. There's some bagginess hanging back to the SW though.

[weatherwiz]

EC ens mean has come west a bit. Looks like a track over, or slightly inside, the BM. There's some bagginess hanging back to the SW though.

As usual.

Well I am following Ray and going to bed...trying to wake up by 9:00.

[Ginx snewx]

This is all I needed to read this AM,

oh sh. It. Lucy get the football UGH

#263   HM 

Group:Meteorologist

Posts:207

Joined:November 12, 2010

Posted Today, 01:38 AM

I think it's safe to say that the ECMWF is flirting with cat 5 NESIS status given the large area impacted

[Ginx snewx]

Welcome to the newest member of the Pete Jerry Steve- o winter party MR Socks

NZucker said

This winter will be plenty memorable if we get this storm to go along with a brutally cold Decenber

I also see more threats for early January with the Siberian high building into Canada and bringing bitter air towards the Northern Plains and eventually the Northeast, with the Pacific still providing lots of fuel due to the ULL spinning in the Pacific Northwest/Gulf of Alaska. I really don't see any sign of the pattern breaking down to a mild SE ridge scenario, contrary to what La Niña climo says. We may have one of the coldest winters in recent memory if this blocking pattern continues as the models show it to.

[Ginx snewx]

Kevin before you read anywhere else today

Chuck um far Chuck um high Chuck um in Socks Eye

I am on board , the weenies on the bus go round and round round and round round and round, the weenies on the bus....

[nzucker]

Kevin before you read anywhere else today

Chuck um far Chuck um high Chuck um in Socks Eye

I am on board , the weenies on the bus go round and round round and round round and round, the weenies on the bus....

Yeah I'm on the bus this time. Good times coming man.

[Damage In Tolland]

Feeling good about this..the worry is still there it misses to south though

[nzucker]

Feeling good about this..the worry is still there it misses to south though

Definitely agree...I am worried this storm is going to move too west-->east with a sloppy late phase that doesn't allow it to come fully up the coast. It's really critical that the northern stream arrive in time to inject the trough with more energy....the 6z GFS showed a bit more separation which wouldn't be good probably.

[moneypitmike]

Yeah it would still probably snow pretty hard then ra/ip before some more light snows for that part of se mass. Not bad.

On the GFS, looks like 2m temps are above freezing from about New haven/Hartford/495/coastal ME east. May not mean mixing, but would reduce ratios I imagine.

It's early to look at these details.

If we didn't look at these details now, our threads would only be about 40 posts per storm. lol

Yeah, keeping my excitement in check of course but so nice to see several runs with potential bomb inside the BM

We're due my friend.

Biggest challenge to keeping things in check is the general agreement of a big storm hitting. There is both inter- and intra-model agreement in general. That's a huge difference from the system off shore now from a modeling standpoint.

I think verbatim, I'd abruptly morph from a windswept, 25* powder, to a 32-33* pasting at some point...while 3-4 miles up the road in N billerica and Lowell, they remain in the mid 20's with uncompromised sugar.

I agree--at least on the GFS run.

GEFS mean still quite a bit SE like the EC ens.

Bummer

Feeling good about this..the worry is still there it misses to south though

We all have our worries, but I'm feeling good.

[moneypitmike]

What are folks thoughts on the timing differences between the GFS and EC? I only see the 24 hr increments on the EC, so I can't see what's happening when. THanks.

[MaineJayhawk]

6z GFS is east a bit, only scrapes the cape. Good position attm.

[moneypitmike]

6z GFS is east a bit, only scrapes the cape. Good position attm.

????? I'd say that position blows.

Also, looks like most of the members of the 00z gfs ens are east/se of the ops run. Several way ots. Disappointing to see that.

[MaineJayhawk]

????? I'd say that position blows.

lol ... Well, yeah, if you expect it to keep that track. It's just the old adage about not wanting to be in the bullseye x hours out.

[Baroclinic Zone]

:snowman: :snowman:

[ski MRG]

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EXISTS

SOMETIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE AMONGST THE

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF

COASTAL/OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND GGEM INDICATE

A COASTAL TRACK WHILE THE UKMET...NUMEROUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND

GEFS MEMBERS TRACK THE LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC

PATTERN LOOKS MORE AMPLIFIED THIS TIME AROUND ACROSS THE

CONUS...WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER UPPER

LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST...AS THE PNA AND NAO PHASES REMAIN

NEGATIVE BUT BECOME MORE NEUTRAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT

TO PACIFIC JET STREAM ENERGY/NORTHERN STREAM PHASING AT LEAST FIVE

DAYS AWAY...HAVE INCORPORATED A BLEND OF 18Z HPC/00Z ECMWF

GUIDANCE.

I'll take the GFS/EURO/GGEM FTW please Alex.

[moneypitmike]

:snowman: :snowman:

Bob--how is that tracking it to/from that point? Hopefully it's got a healthy amount of North in that trajectory.

If this doesn't come through, we can always hope for the New Year's lakes cutter.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Bob--how is that tracking it to/from that point? Hopefully it's got a healthy amount of North in that trajectory.

If this doesn't come through, we can always hope for the New Year's lakes cutter.

[moneypitmike]

I suspect the concern is primarily for their zones CD east and south, but here's ALY's take. A cautious weenie is up in the air.

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY IS

STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE

POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER DURING THIS TIME. OPERATIONAL

GUIDANCE OF THE GFS/GGEM/ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOW ALL ON

BOARD WITH SHOWING A DEEPENING LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST

AND RECURVING NORTHEAST WHILE IT DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY JUST OFF THE

COAST EAST OF NEW JERSEY AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WHILE THESE

SOLUTIONS POINT TO A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING...THE EXACT TRACK AND

ESPECIALLY THE TIMING ARE HIGHLY IN QUESTION. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE

DEPICTING A TRACK FARTHER EAST OUT TO SEA...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL

GUIDANCE SUITE IS SHOWING SOLUTIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE

DIFFERENCES ARE LARGE IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. SOME OF THE

OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR

OUR AREA.

IN TERMS OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF WAS THE FIRST TO

SHOW A SLOWER EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...WITH THE GGEM FOLLOWING SUIT

WITH ITS LATEST RUN. IN FACT...THE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE MEASURABLE

SNOW BEGINNING UNTIL LATER SUNDAY...WITH THE BULK FALLING SUNDAY

NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS NOW SHOWING AN EVEN DEEPER LOW THAN PREVIOUS

RUNS...DOWN TO THE MID 960MB RANGE. THE GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH FASTER

WITH THE EVOLUTION AND SPREADING LIGHT SNOW IN ON CHRISTMAS

DAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER SNOW FALLING ON SUNDAY. THE GFS

IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE LOW...GENERALLY 980MB AS IT PASSES OVER CAPE

COD LATE SUNDAY.

ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE TO RAISE POPS TO CHANCE RANGE ACROSS

THE BOARD FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ENSEMBLES STILL

SHOWING ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS OUR

AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FARTHER EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS

RESULT IN A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR

A WINTER STORM IN THE HWO...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE BUSY HOLIDAY

TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND.-- End Changed Discussion --

[moneypitmike]

Thanks. Guess that would at least provide some gusty winds.

[moneypitmike]

What types of p-type issues does the CMC bring to SNE/SE NY? I can't see anyting past 144hrs, but it looks like there'd be a lot of warm air coming in off the ocean to spoil a great storm for a lot of us.

[powderfreak]

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EXISTS

SOMETIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE AMONGST THE

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF

COASTAL/OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND GGEM INDICATE

A COASTAL TRACK WHILE THE UKMET...NUMEROUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND

GEFS MEMBERS TRACK THE LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC

PATTERN LOOKS MORE AMPLIFIED THIS TIME AROUND ACROSS THE

CONUS...WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER UPPER

LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST...AS THE PNA AND NAO PHASES REMAIN

NEGATIVE BUT BECOME MORE NEUTRAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT

TO PACIFIC JET STREAM ENERGY/NORTHERN STREAM PHASING AT LEAST FIVE

DAYS AWAY...HAVE INCORPORATED A BLEND OF 18Z HPC/00Z ECMWF

GUIDANCE.

I'll take the GFS/EURO/GGEM FTW please Alex.

GGEM looks nice for the interior... this would jackpot you guys on the eastern slopes. This is also good up here but too bad its the GGEM... always over-amped up.

Only in 2010 could we possibly have another storm that dumps snow on NYC-PHL with mixing in New England. How many times have we seen that 540 line run up the New England/NY border?

[moneypitmike]

GGEM looks nice for the interior... this would jackpot you guys on the eastern slopes. This is also good up here but too bad its the GGEM... always over-amped up.

Only in 2010 could we possibly have another storm that dumps snow on NYC-PHL with mixing in New England. How many times have we seen that 540 line run up the New England/NY border?

Right through my backyard.

[amarshall]

I swore I wouldn't even click on this thread until Friday....facepalm

[codfishsnowman]

The only thing that bothers me is why are so many ensemble members out ot sea with the weekend solution, its a lot of members and it is hard to ignore. I see all these posts worrying about mixing, let us hope that we have to worry about that..esp along and just inland from the coastal plain. Are there really more models showing a big hit for sne than at this point in the game as compared to this stage of the game with the current storm. The current storm was ONLY a good hit for a very very small part of esne.

There is no place more snow starved that the ct valley region between last year and so far this year, even four or five inches seems hard to fathom right now.

[Tropopause_Fold]

The only thing that bothers me is why are so many ensemble members out ot sea with the weekend solution, its a lot of members and it is hard to ignore. I see all these posts worrying about mixing, let us hope that we have to worry about that..esp along and just inland from the coastal plain. Are there really more models showing a big hit for sne than at this point in the game as compared to this stage of the game with the current storm. The current storm was ONLY a good hit for a very very small part of esne.

There is no place more snow starved that the ct valley region between last year and so far this year, even four or five inches seems hard to fathom right now.

i think the signals are pretty strong overall that something is coming...

where exactly it tracks who knows...though i'd suspect the trend will be offshore of SNE limiting any mix issues to perhaps MBY...

the only "concern" i have (and given the time frame it's not really an issue because we are still at the edge of model la-la land) is the absolute bombing nature of this storm on most guidance. i don't love seeing that because it tends to indicate that a lot of features are co-locating perfectly at T>100hrs...and it's a lower probability, imo, of all those pieces of the puzzle coming together quite so perfectly. either way though...i like the odds on this one.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Thanks. Guess that would at least provide some gusty winds.

And like a foot of snow.