Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

[weatherwiz]

If Kevin used 1888 for this system when the euro/gfs destroyed us I wonder what he uses tomorrow morning when he sees this run

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I know this, but it just irks me so badly not to see 2"+ depicted on charts. lol

NCEP fixed it for you but about 10 days later.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEFS mean still quite a bit SE like the EC ens.

The EC ens mean didn't do me any good at 84 hrs last week, so I'm not letting it bother me at 132 hrs this week.

[weatherwiz]

I see that now, not bad wiz!

I guess I'm not as dumb as I think

Been trying to not just take the models for what they show but rather look at what they are showing and then trying to ask myself if what they are showing is correct or not. I've remembered a few times in the past the models will show a pretty big bomb but not a great deal of QPF and this caught many people off guard and in the end there was just so much dry air being worked into the system so this was just something that popped into my mind.

Just like the cases where like the GFS will show like 2'' of QPF but only have a sfc pressure of like 1002 mb

[ROOSTA]

Fantasy modeled traincar after traincar, till April it looks like. Where can one vote for this?

Out!

[weatherwiz]

What's the link to show what each of the individual members are showing?

[weathafella]

CMC crawls this as a monster but close to the coast. The good news is the 1041 banana HP so I think we can work out details to our advantage.

[ctsnowstorm628]

CMC crawls this as a monster but close to the coast. The good news is the 1041 banana HP so I think we can work out details to our advantage.

plus, unlike the other models, the cmc has been all over the place with the upper air pattern and placement with the storm...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

CMC crawls this as a monster but close to the coast. The good news is the 1041 banana HP so I think we can work out details to our advantage.

Hopefully to the advantage of all of SNE.

G' night.

[eduggs]

How this stalls and only produces a general 1 1\4" of liquid is beyond me.....I understood that on the more progressive soloutions.

Storms that stall are occluded or occluding so the mechanisms that generate precipitation are usually weakening. Precip rates are more highly correlated to rate of deepening than depth of low. So once a low stalls, most of the heavy precip is usually out of the vicinity. Decaying CCBs and various mesoscale features are exceptions to this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Storms that stall are occluded or occluding so the mechanisms that generate precipitation are usually weakening. Precip rates are more highly correlated to rate of deepening than depth of low. So once a low stalls, most of the heavy precip is usually out of the vicinity. Decaying CCBs and various mesoscale features are exceptions to this.

True, but others stallers have been much more prolific than this is modeled as being.

I think what it comes down to is that obviously long range QPF depictions are for sh**, and the system is not really being aided by much in the way of isentropic lift.

[weatherwiz]

True, but others stallers have been much more prolific than this is modeled as being.

I think what it comes down to is that obviously long range QPF depictions are for sh**, and the system is not really being aided by much in the way of isentropic lift.

That is a GREAT point. Usually when you see bombs and want to see juicy QPF you'd like to see a good amount of warm air and moisture being advected into the storm within the warm sector but you're not really seeing that right now.

[OKpowdah]

True, but others stallers have been much more prolific than this is modeled as being.

I think what it comes down to is that obviously long range QPF depictions are for sh**, and the system is not really being aided by much in the way of isentropic lift.

Yeah, following the evolution of the modeled storm, there would normally be a larger 1"+ swath with a stripe of 2" in there somewhere. The storm is definitely NOT in the weakening / decaying CCB stage when it reaches New England.

One decent proposal from Wes -- the huge low over the Atlantic will be generating westerlies back to 65W, which could be limiting moisture convergence from the Atlantic. Although we're still looking at healthy RH fields, so who knows.

[weatherwiz]

Where's Will for info on the Ukie past 72 HR?

The GFS appears to be a bit more amplified with heights and a bit stronger with the s/w in the SW than the Ukie at 72...now that this probably means much right now.

Wait a second...

Ukie on Ewall only goes out to 72 HR but here it goes out past that correct?

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na〈=en

[40/70 Benchmark]

The 00z EURO is essentially a more intense Jan 1996.

[40/70 Benchmark]

About 10-20" regionwide. .....~1" QPF

[weatherwiz]

The 00z EURO is essentially a more intense Jan 1996.

Seriously? That's pretty sweet.

How is it track wise compared to the GFS?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Seriously? That's pretty sweet.

How is it track wise compared to the GFS?

S of it a little bit.....Just inside the BM and just s of ACK....perfect for me.

[dendrite]

The 00z EURO is essentially a more intense Jan 1996.

It scares me a little for up here. It closes off and gets captured south of LI. Great for you guys, but concerning for me despite respectable QPF. Jan 1996 had a brutal latitudinal gradient through MA/NH. I might throw fits like you if the Mid Atl gets another HECS and I'm left dry.

[ScituateWX]

The 00z EURO is essentially a more intense Jan 1996.

, On a side not just got in from plowing we ended up with a solid 4 inches here in Scituate.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It scares me a little for up here. It closes off and gets captured south of LI. Great for you guys, but concerning for me despite respectable QPF. Jan 1996 had a brutal latitudinal gradient through MA/NH. I might throw fits like you if the Mid Atl gets another HECS and I'm left dry.

I absolutely see this shaping up like that.....somewhere around the MA\NY border over to about Manchester, NH is gonna see one helluva cut.

[dendrite]

I absolutely see this shaping up like that.....somewhere around the MA\NY border over to about Manchester, NH is gonna see one helluva cut.

Well it's still early in the game. Wasn't most of Mass modeled to be out of Jan 1996 and in the last few runs it all came N?

[weatherwiz]

S of it a little bit.....Just inside the BM and just s of ACK....perfect for me.

Yeah that's definitely a much better track for you than what the GFS is showing...I'd still see some good snows from that...but at this point 3-4'' is good snows

[40/70 Benchmark]

968mb low a tic s of ACK and a 1028mb high over MN=56mb gradient.

1978 had 1052 high just NW of MN and a 984 low near the BM=64mb gradient.

We probably won't see this verify quite so intense, but just goes to show you what type of beast is being modeled.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well it's still early in the game. Wasn't most of Mass modeled to be out of Jan 1996 and in the last few runs it all came N?

Yea.....kept creeping up.

[weatherwiz]

968mb low a tic s of ACK and a 1028mb high over MN=56mb gradient.

1978 had 1052 high just NW of MN and a 984 low near the BM=64mb gradient.

We probably won't see this verify quite so intense, but just goes to show you what type of beast is being modeled.

968mb? Wow...that's freaking intense...that's even stronger than what the GFS is showing...that could be a good sign.

[dendrite]

Anyone catch the min SLP on the NOGAPS? I can't even read that...lol

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2010122100&prod=thk&tau=156&set=Core

[weatherwiz]

Anyone catch the min SLP on the NOGAPS? I can't even read that...lol

https://www.fnmoc.na...au=156&set=Core

It's like below 950mb lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's like below 950mb lol.

Hopefully the the CCB would reach me before it underwent an ERC.

[weatherwiz]

Hopefully the the CCB would reach me before it underwent an ERC.

Snowcane FTW!