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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

This is a setup unlike anything we've seen since 2005?

:lol:

Well I wouldn't go that crazy just yet...don't forget we are still in "fantasy" range and despite the great agreement we've been seeing models in this range usually like to jack things so unless were still seeing these solutions by Friday than I'd still be on the skeptical side but the consensus so far has definitely been encouraging.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

I know this, but it just irks me so badly not to see 2"+ depicted on charts. lol

:lol:

Yeah I know what you mean, I was even a bit shocked not to see more in the way of QPF being spit own given what we were seeing from 935 through 250mb. Given the evolution of the storm from the VA coast up through our area I think we would def see some higher QPF outputs than what was shown...unless there is some serious dry air working into the system :lol:

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

:lol:

Well I wouldn't go that crazy just yet...don't forget we are still in "fantasy" range and despite the great agreement we've been seeing models in this range usually like to jack things so unless were still seeing these solutions by Friday than I'd still be on the skeptical side but the consensus so far has definitely been encouraging.

:rolleyes:

Yeah, keeping my excitement in check of course but so nice to see several runs with potential bomb inside the BM

We're due my friend.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

:lol:

Well I wouldn't go that crazy just yet...don't forget we are still in "fantasy" range and despite the great agreement we've been seeing models in this range usually like to jack things so unless were still seeing these solutions by Friday than I'd still be on the skeptical side but the consensus so far has definitely been encouraging.

Right now it looks better than anything since Jan 2005, but these historic opportunities can morph into a run-of-the-mill 8-12" at any given moment, right up until go--time.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Right now it looks better than anything since Jan 2005, but these historic opportunities can morph into a run-of-the-mill 8-12" at any given moment, right up until go--time.

lol.....

Verbatim I get a hellaceous front end, seal it with some sleet/rain and frost it with some back end snow.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

:rolleyes:

Yeah, keeping my excitement in check of course but so nice to see several runs with potential bomb inside the BM

We're due my friend.

We definitely are! Hopefully this is the one. My last great event was the Feb '06 event where I was LUCKY enough to be in the area that jackpotted...just a few inches shy of recording 30'' for that storm...I know there are issues with that just b/c of what unfolded after the storm with the snow compacting down but that is still pretty impressive.

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JJBASHB

JJBASHB

Posted
Posted

People are asking why so dry on this run re: the X-mas storm.....the days before aproach, most layers of the atmosphere have a NW'erly component, ie dry....No big "H" over northern Maine to moisten the antecedent airmass, thus bombogenisis will be the driver of getting the precip field westward.... and not in any long distance fashion, thus the "tight" areal coverage...

This is an interesting point by LEK from the main thread RE QPF. Although it doesn't explain the lack of excessive totals just areal coverage.

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40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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lol.....

Verbatim I get a hellaceous front end, seal it with some sleet/rain and frost it with some back end snow.

I think verbatim, I'd abruptly morph from a windswept, 25* powder, to a 32-33* pasting at some point...while 3-4 miles up the road in N billerica and Lowell, they remain in the mid 20's with uncompromised sugar.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
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Right now it looks better than anything since Jan 2005, but these historic opportunities can morph into a run-of-the-mill 8-12" at any given moment, right up until go--time.

Yeah we know how quickly these things can go from historic look to dwindling crap. I like what I see right now but I am going to do the best I can to refrain from investing a ton of emotions into this. If were sitting here this time Christmas Eve and were still seeing what we are well than instead of giving milk to Santa Clause at my sister's house this year I'll leave him a 12-pack...and I get to be Santa this year :drunk::pimp:

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
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Yeah we know how quickly these things can go from historic look to dwindling crap. I like what I see right now but I am going to do the best I can to refrain from investing a ton of emotions into this. If were sitting here this time Christmas Eve and were still seeing what we are well than instead of giving milk to Santa Clause at my sister's house this year I'll leave him a 12-pack...and I get to be Santa this year :drunk::pimp:

:lmao:

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