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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

I don't care what the QPF shows at this timeframe, except for morbid curiosity. I'd be more concerned about synoptics, phasing, track.

To be honest, this far out I'm just looking for continuity run to run. With the model swings we've seen with these recent storms It would be nice to see one get reeled in without a snag.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

It's where I want to see it.

Not even you want some of these ensembles. I'm pretty confident that we won't have to deal with an inland runner given the pattern, so at this point, I would like to see the ensembles further NW. Obviously still some time to go for things to change, but just saying

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Not even you want some of these ensembles. I'm pretty confident that we won't have to deal with an inland runner given the pattern, so at this point, I would like to see the ensembles further NW. Obviously still some time to go for things to change, but just saying

I'll will ride the Euro Ensm. Having the GFS Ensm further SE does not bother me.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

For anybody. Just because you may be "content" with what you see, doesn't mean you just accept it for what it is.

I'm looking at beautiful cyclogenesis just south of the region, very well timed for intense dynamics over SNE, along with excellent moisture transport northward, as can be shown by the 850mb and 700mb RH fields. I know it's a relatively progressive system, but I'm not looking at the totals, I'm looking at the 6hr QPF periods, and thinking there would likely be a larger swath of .25" to .5" with a decent stripe of .5" to .75" ... in contrast to what is shown.

Well it is six days out and QPF is the lowest model verification of all levels. I can see how you would say underproduced but then again that theme seems pretty dominate on most models they obviously are seeing somthing that is affecting PWAT.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

A Christmas storm will go over well with the family... "Why do you keep looking at the computer... we have company!"

suggestions that have worked with me:

- volunteer to cook something so you need to have a recipe up on your computer and of course you have to keep looking at the recipe. (or a fancy new drink you are making for the guests.

- you are sending an ecard to someone you forgot to wish a merry xmas too.

- you are checking the weather to make sure the guests dont' drive in a snowstorm

- taking a peek at your calendar for the week after xmas

- searching itunes for some good cool xmas music

- if we are in full storm mode on the site, place a laptop in a bathroom that none of the guests use and develop a mysterious case of diahrea. Or come up with any myriad of reasons to disappear and go to the bathroom

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I'm trying to not get too overboard lately. I can be obsessive about it. The last few storms have been anti-climatic so I'm glad I didn't get completely invested. I am, however, getting more and more intrigued by the weekend event. Would really love to have it happen as we'll have lots of guests and it will be fun to have a raging N'or Easter piling the snow up. Ice is thick enough here for snowmobiles now, I saw two guys ice fishing and running gear out by machine this afternoon. We just need to bolster the fairly meager snowpack.

How much snow have you had so far? I was looking over some numbers in mountainous regions and I think you guys along the east slopes of the Berkshires up into the southern Whites are running the largest snowfall deficits relative to normal so far. Of course it has snowed in all the mountainous regions, but relative to normal, you guys should've had a lot, lot more by now, no?

Moneypitmike hasn't seen much at all this winter and at over 1K feet along the eastern slope, that area should have seen a decent amount so far. Same deal as with areas like Ascutney in VT... Sunapee in NH up towards Loon. There is a zone on the east side that is running some decent deficits so far due to most of the snow coming in on a NW flow so far this season.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

For anybody. Just because you may be "content" with what you see, doesn't mean you just accept it for what it is.

:lol: Ginx is enjoying being in the sweet spot 7 days out.

It certainly seems very low given the synoptics at play. Of course, people say its not important at this lead time (and it isn't), but its also interesting to try and figure out why the model is doing that. Given the track near Cape Cod while its exploding, the QPF panels are quite meager.

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doug1991

doug1991

Posted
Posted

How much snow have you had so far? I was looking over some numbers in mountainous regions and I think you guys along the east slopes of the Berkshires up into the southern Whites are running the largest snowfall deficits relative to normal so far. Of course it has snowed in all the mountainous regions, but relative to normal, you guys should've had a lot, lot more by now, no?

Moneypitmike hasn't seen much at all this winter and at over 1K feet along the eastern slope, that area should have seen a decent amount so far. Same deal as with areas like Ascutney in VT... Sunapee in NH up towards Loon. There is a zone on the east side that is running some decent deficits so far due to most of the snow coming in on a NW flow so far this season.

your not kidding. it really sucks. So far its been the same as last winter. we were in the screw zone big time last winter. Hopefully it changes very soon.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

your not kidding. it really sucks. So far its been the same as last winter. we were in the screw zone big time last winter. Hopefully it changes very soon.

We ended up scoring a big coup over the valley in the February storm that gave Pete and I about 2' while I think you and Chris had a few inches. That made a big difference in comparing our totals last year.

This year has been one big yawn. Nice to see our first warning in SNE verify, though!

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doug1991

doug1991

Posted
Posted

We ended up scoring a big coup over the valley in the February storm that gave Pete and I about 2' while I think you and Chris had a few inches. That made a big difference in comparing our totals last year.

This year has been one big yawn. Nice to see our first warning in SNE verify, though!

yea, i remember taking a ride to the heath fair grounds and the snow banks were impressive. looked like they got 3'. i believe they did get something like 26".

one big yawn is right. pretty hard to swallow. hopefully things change soon.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

May scoot offshore, but we'll see shortly.

If it does on this run it's going to at least be a very close call for us. Definitely alot of positives on this run so far. Energy gids nicely and doesn't appear to go negatively tilted too early or start trying to close off to early. Or too late for that matter.

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