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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CTWeatherFreak

CTWeatherFreak

Posted
Posted

At 144 hours looks nice at 500mb but the sfc low is awfully far east. Probably will get sucked back NW as long as that closed low doesn't start moving.

Ryan, are you starting to give xmas snowstorm some weight in your forecasts? While watching at the gym this morning your on air counterpart barely gave it much weight at all, although it did show up in the 7 day graphic.

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hooralph

hooralph

Posted
Posted

Keep it!

…wind damage to sky scrapers, roofs blown off some structures and power outages for everyone –

Frankly, that’s too much for me kids. I hate it when the power goes out. Not fun. The novelty of it wears off in about 2 minutes when you realize that every amenity known to modern living depends on electricity. F that! I’ll take a 35mph blizzard and white-out as fine; I don’t need hurricane force wind gust in any snow fall, and if you are stupid enough to wish that on you get what you deserve.

no way, do I want to that bs. just keep it.

This is where we need the eye-rolling, jerking motion smilie.

If we get a storm like that you'll be standing naked in a field writing poetry.

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted

We need an explosion 75 miles sooner. Any later, a whole buch of us get the old 2010 screwgy.

plenty of time on this one

we've seen what the models can do in one run ....i wont even bank on a storm even occurring for at least another 3 days at minimum.

a storm similar to last weeks euro model would be nice where everyone cashes in, but yeah this one is awfully progressive

still its a cold storm with good ratios likely and winds with nice drifts

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hooralph

hooralph

Posted
Posted

Could someone arrange an intervention to remove the crack pipe from NCEP's extended range discussion?

Assume you mean this?

Why not ride a year-long pattern until it burns them?

THE BIGGER QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW

ENGLAND COAST THIS CYCLONE WILL TRACK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST

NORTHWESTERLY OF THE GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE...AND IF THIS SURFACE

LOW WERE MOVING UP THE EAST SIDE OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH RATHER

THAN A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED CYCLONE...A MORE COASTAL TRACK FOR NEW

ENGLAND WOULD MAKE SENSE. SINCE THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE

CASE...AND THE 12Z ECMWF BACKED OFF THIS IDEA SOMEWHAT...THE 00Z

ECMWF CYCLONE TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST IS PROBABLY TOO FAR

NORTHWEST/TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST. OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE

ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS...MOVE THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE GULF

STREAM...A NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE/AREA OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT

OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST...WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING

THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE 12Z CANADIAN MOVES IT DUE EAST AS IT

EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC...

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

LOL I'm sorry, I never put much stock in the HPC discussions anymore. I've found them to be pretty awful over the last few years. Either they go extremely bullish and bust horribly or they state some arbitrary reason not to go gung ho, which is often irrelevent. Now recently, they've had this fetish for referencing the location of the baroclinic zone, which is of course important, but not overpowering up against large scale features.

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