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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

What do you mean by the progressive nature of the event?

The H5 low isn't capturing it so it keeps moving along.

I wouldn't be shocked to see some 20:1 ratios in the best CSI banding.....there would likely be some oes contributuions, as well.

Bottom line: that is a 1-2' blitz, region wide.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

972mb low and a 1032mb high...have some wind.

Yeah, definitely a short-duration blizzard. Looking at the QPF maps this thing hits quickly and hard... looks like a 12 hour storm (of meaningful snows at least) though -SN/--SN on each side would make it about an 18 hour storm.

This fits with what Tip was saying earlier about it being progressive... but anytime you see .5"+ QPF flagged in a 6-hour period, you will most certainly see a good burst of 1"/hr snows during the crux.

This is the storm SNE is looking for... not a historic one but just a solid, 8-16" warning event with wind on the GFS.

I bet the EURO looks great for SNE this afternoon. Its about time.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

What I do know is that it's an intrinsic element of all long range threats to have the odds stacked against tem so I'm not sure what exactly your point is.

Yeah... all solid hits on the models could end up missing. But I'm with you Ray, you're area will not get shut-out in this pattern. If it does, *thats* a historic meltdown of mother nature... but there are only so many storms that can exit the mid-Atlantic coast before one of them delivers meaningful snow to a good chunk of SNE. Again, it doesn't have to be a HECS, but sooner or later a 4-8" or 6-12" or even 8-16" event has got to come along.

Like the last one, I think the further east you are the better off you'll be.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Check out after hr 126. It goes to town and that nrn stream really digs the trough.

sorry, am behind on this over the last hour.

the original comment was in gest, and I also was not thinking about this run at hand. i was thinking at some point 'would we lose this' in future runs, in keeping with typology of course...

actually though, i think the 00z and 06z subtle unraveling was about as distant as this one is destined to get. this signal just looks huge at the moment, collosal compared to this on-going miss ever did - as this thread started out and i wholeheartedly am still committed to believing.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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just reviewed the whole run

Interesting lax QPF given the deep layer, but this run is also a clear and decisive attempt to migrate back toward the more intense guidance depictions of prior to 00z last night, so is most likely not fully back on board with its self. I suspect the 12z Euro would be heftier on QPF.

I am also interested in the ECM's 12z handling of the geopotential medium in NW Ontario - the 12z GFS shows renewed -NAO presentation there - or at least holding on longer; I intimated this would mean a stally type pattern could evolve if that were the case - the GFS is very close to doing just that but manages to slip the rhino

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

just reviewed the whole run

Interesting lax QPF given the deep layer, but this run is also a clear and decisive attempt to migrate back toward the more intense guidance depictions of prior to 00z last night, so is most likely not fully back on board with its self. I suspect the 12z Euro would be heftier on QPF.

I am also interested in the ECM's 12z handling of the geopotential medium in NW Ontario - the 12z GFS shows renewed -NAO presentation there - or at least holding on longer; I intimated this would mean a stally type pattern could evolve if that were the case - the GFS is very close to doing just that but manages to slip the rhino

I am nervous that this storm be like the 3 ku's last year, where they just run into a block over ne and slide east ots

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

The February and December blocks from last year were significantly stronger than the block being modeled in medium range currently.

Ok good.. the gfs has just had that look to the storm where it slides out to sea missing sne or at least my area with the ccb

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40/70 Benchmark

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Posted
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Don't forget Donny baseball Sutherland's thread.. there has never been a KU in a strong nina..So rule out a KU and just hope it's a moderate snowfall if it makes it this far north

I thin that given the magnitude of the blocking we have seen over the course of the past year, we are prone to alot of "firsts".

Flurries.....28.6\18

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