Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

[OSUmetstud]

People are also very gun-shy given what just happened. Normally you'd have Kev already locking this up but he seems shaken by the big phail of watching run after run show KU event.

If this threat doesn't pan out, people aren't even going to bother posting here until its within 60 hours, haha.

It was the 2 runs of the euro that messed everything up...I thought the threat of the storm was wanning considerably before that.

[powderfreak]

I'd agree that's a good thing...

The plan for Amy and I is to head to Buffalo on the 23rd and return to Blackstone on the 27th...we'll see how this possible storm affects our plans.

I know people like to use climo a lot... and climo says that one of these snowstorms *will* hit SNE. There comes a point when the odds are that at least a moderate event will strike sooner or later, and I feel like climo averages would tend to argue that the odds of a hit are increasing with each miss, if that makes any sense.

[CoastalWx]

Several of the gfs ensembles are pretty impressive...slowing the low down near and se of ACK.

[OSUmetstud]

I know people like to use climo a lot... and climo says that one of these snowstorms *will* hit SNE. There comes a point when the odds are that at least a moderate event will strike sooner or later, and I feel like climo averages would tend to argue that the odds of a hit are increasing with each miss, if that makes any sense.

That's a bit of statistical bull****...but yeah I get what you are saying.

[Damage In Tolland]

People are also very gun-shy given what just happened. Normally you'd have Kev already locking this up but he seems shaken by the big phail of watching run after run show KU event.

If this threat doesn't pan out, people aren't even going to bother posting here until its within 60 hours, haha.

I've had 2.5 inches of snow so far while you've had 5 feet. I'm just depressed because I was counting on getting some snow this week...and to me it looks like the X-mas storm could miss us to the south. But maybe we'll get lucky

[OSUmetstud]

Several of the gfs ensembles are pretty impressive...slowing the low down near and se of ACK.

I've noticed for that last few days...the Euro wanted to have the storm later if it all...more 26th.. and.the GFS had been keying on the 25th. I think we are finally starting to see the 26th be the prime day.

the GFS was the first to have the storm just 24-36 hours too early...so I'm not sure who gets more credit in this situation if the storm verified lol.

[Logan11]

We just have to be realistic and not expect a KU event. Hope for a nice 4 to 8 inch event and keep expectations low..... This wx hobby (or profession) is going to be very dejecting if we always set the bar at a KU event because on average you only get several of them a decade.

People are also very gun-shy given what just happened. Normally you'd have Kev already locking this up but he seems shaken by the big phail of watching run after run show KU event.

If this threat doesn't pan out, people aren't even going to bother posting here until its within 60 hours, haha.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I know people like to use climo a lot... and climo says that one of these snowstorms *will* hit SNE. There comes a point when the odds are that at least a moderate event will strike sooner or later, and I feel like climo averages would tend to argue that the odds of a hit are increasing with each miss, if that makes any sense.

Doesn't

[powderfreak]

It was the 2 runs of the euro that messed everything up...I thought the threat of the storm was wanning considerably before that.

Yeah certainly... what happened during that storm could almost be a pyschology thesis study on the minds of weather weenies. For days and days everyone was saying "we need to see the Euro show this storm" in order to get excited. Then the GFS loses it but the EURO shows it... all the sudden people could care less about the GFS and its gung-ho KU event based on the EURO. That was just a building diaster waiting to happen and we should probably take note that when each individual model shows a big event (but never all the models at the same time), and flip-flops so much, caution should be advised.

That whole fail was definitely attributed to the EURO though as for a few days before hand everyone had been saying how much superior the EURO was (even the seasoned Mets jumped in bed with the EURO), so when it showed the big event, it was hard for weenies to not jump in head-first.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I've had 2.5 inches of snow so far while you've had 5 feet. I'm just depressed because I was counting on getting some snow this week...and to me it looks like the X-mas storm could miss us to the south. But maybe we'll get lucky

Don't be sad... come skiing with me instead! Off to the mountain for a few runs before wrapping gifts.

[powderfreak]

That's a bit of statistical bull****...but yeah I get what you are saying.

Haha oh yeah its not scientific at all, I just think the odds of going snowless for so long start to favor a storm at some point. Because regardless of what Mother Nature thinks, New England is a synoptically snowy place in the winter on average.

[Logan11]

Smart people probably would have tuned out all models and moved to other pursuits on after the Euro dropped this current event last Friday. LOL

[CoastalWx]

I've noticed for that last few days...the Euro wanted to have the storm later if it all...more 26th.. and.the GFS had been keying on the 25th. I think we are finally starting to see the 26th be the prime day.

the GFS was the first to have the storm just 24-36 hours too early...so I'm not sure who gets more credit in this situation if the storm verified lol.

I hope it can wait until the morning of the 26th, if it does come up. That would throw a wrench into Christmas and work for me.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I've had 2.5 inches of snow so far while you've had 5 feet. I'm just depressed because I was counting on getting some snow this week...and to me it looks like the X-mas storm could miss us to the south. But maybe we'll get lucky

Just don't get emotionally invested and enjoy what transpires.

[MaineJayhawk]

I know people like to use climo a lot... and climo says that one of these snowstorms *will* hit SNE. There comes a point when the odds are that at least a moderate event will strike sooner or later, and I feel like climo averages would tend to argue that the odds of a hit are increasing with each miss, if that makes any sense.

In short ... it snows here.

[Logan11]

I think if it holds back to more like the 26th ..better chance it isn't suppressed.

I hope it can wait until the morning of the 26th, if it does come up. That would throw a wrench into Christmas and work for me.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just don't get emotionally invested and enjoy what transpires.

I can't do that. i get emotionally invested in every snow event or potential event. It's just how i am. I don't go about things half-assed..It's all in or nothing.

[OSUmetstud]

I hope it can wait until the morning of the 26th, if it does come up. That would throw a wrench into Christmas and work for me.

I'm not sure how I feel...I'd really be disappointed to miss this storm in Buffalo. If it waits until the 26th-27th...we might have to leave early to make it back here on time so that Amy doesn't miss work on the 28th.

[powderfreak]

I've had 2.5 inches of snow so far while you've had 5 feet. I'm just depressed because I was counting on getting some snow this week...and to me it looks like the X-mas storm could miss us to the south. But maybe we'll get lucky

Ehh, haven't had near 5 feet (except on the mountain) but its all been light fluff... looks nice but doesn't build a snowpack. I'm not complaining (at all) but just don't think we are sitting up here with 3 feet of snow on the ground. I'm greatful we've had snow since other areas are struggling, but like you, we are still running slightly below average in snowfall I think (though not as below relative to normal as SNE). The mountain is up to 84" since November 1st, (not counting Oct's 34") and that's about two feet below average I think.

Its all relative which is why its important to compare to normal/average... its not like we are basking in way above normal snowfall here. We have snow but its still below normal.

[OKpowdah]

It was the 2 runs of the euro that messed everything up...I thought the threat of the storm was wanning considerably before that.

Yeah, I think everyone was inching away from the storm before the Euro, except for Kev

[OKpowdah]

For the love of God, can we please NOT have a radio show this time?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd agree that's a good thing...

The plan for Amy and I is to head to Buffalo on the 23rd and return to Blackstone on the 27th...we'll see how this possible storm affects our plans.

I had scheduled a job interview for next Monday, then I promptly called the dude back and cited the possibility of "adverse weather" that day as the potential for wanting to change it....this Wednesday it is.

[CoastalWx]

I had scheduled a job interview for next Monday, then I promptly called the dude back and cited the possibility of "adverse weather" that day as the potential for wanting to change it....this Wednesday it is.

Good luck btw.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Doesn't

I believe it does, which is why I'm so adamant that we won't be shut out this month, especially given the type of pattern that we've been in.

[Typhoon Tip]

Gotta like that intensity on the 12z NAM as that southern stream component of that phase comes through the Rockies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Good luck btw.

Thanks....2nd interview with DYS, but the caveat is that it's in Westboro......it's a hike, but it doesn't hurt to interview.

[OKpowdah]

I can't do that. i get emotionally invested in every snow event or potential event. It's just how i am. I don't go about things half-assed..It's all in or nothing.

Yeah, I've been trying, but it's tough, especially when we've been in a bit of a SECS drought. I get even more excited about upcoming prospects, even if it does go against principle

[CoastalWx]

Thanks....2nd interview with DYS, but the caveat is that it's in Westboro......it's a hike, but it doesn't hurt to interview.

Take what you can get these days.

[OSUmetstud]

That energy coming into the southwest in 72 hours is so much better than that ***** shortwave we were looking at for this past fail.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah, I think everyone was inching away from the storm before the Euro, except for Kev

I wasn't, but I understood why some were; I payed a hunch that looked to be right and then the rugged got pulled out.