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Pre-Thanksgiving Cold, LES/Other Snow Prospects


Geos

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Regarding the Ann Arbor snowfall debate:

I lived there for 4 years during college and consistently measured snow. My measurements were consistently lower during every snow event than the "official" number. Sure, Ann Arbor is definitely one of the snowier spots in SE Michigan, but it seems they over measure.

I can't tell you how many times I was frustrated by an official measurement of 4" taken a mile away with no elevation change, yet I couldn't find more than 2" on the ground. Many times I'd get a dusting yet 2" shows up as the final tally.

I've always taken snow measurements with a grain of salt though. Let's say you average 20 snowfalls in a year. If every event was overdone by 0.6" that's an added foot per year without much visual increase in snowfall.

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Regarding the Ann Arbor snowfall debate:

I lived there for 4 years during college and consistently measured snow. My measurements were consistently lower during every snow event than the "official" number. Sure, Ann Arbor is definitely one of the snowier spots in SE Michigan, but it seems they over measure.

I can't tell you how many times I was frustrated by an official measurement of 4" taken a mile away with no elevation change, yet I couldn't find more than 2" on the ground. Many times I'd get a dusting yet 2" shows up as the final tally.

I've always taken snow measurements with a grain of salt though. Let's say you average 20 snowfalls in a year. If every event was overdone by 0.6" that's an added foot per year without much visual increase in snowfall.

Its funny when you look at all the technology of weather today, snowfall measuring is no easier than it was in 1880. Despite so many coops who undermeasure, there are a few that overmeasure (think YNG lol). Now...I dont live in Ann Arbor so I dont know how they measure, but those above scenarios seem really crazy (they measure 4", you 2"...they measure 2", you dusting). When you look at data for MQT they seem to be similar. Always way higher than everyone else nearby. Now....if you dont follow the 6-hour rule, you will certainly come up a bit lower, but it shouldnt be that much lower. Few regions get as many days with measurable snowfall per winter as this one, so one can argue that if someone is constantly overmeasuring by several tenths it will add up to several inches by winters end. On the flip side, take a region that sees snow quite infrequently but when they do it comes in big storms, often accompanied by wind (say NYC) that can cause huge drifts. I remember one year they reported their biggest snowstorm on record, like 26", and everyone said no one could find more than 18" in the area. In one day the snowfall tally is getting muddled by 6+ inches.

 

It will be interesting if they will EVER be able to improve the science of snow-measuring or if it will forever have to be done manually with lots of room for human error.

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2.8" of snow since 8 am. Still pouring.

 

still amazed at what passes here with no headline.

 

HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN AREAS TARGETED BY WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
BAND (IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT)...CENTERED ON EAST JORDAN IN
CHARLEVOIX COUNTY WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION.

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2.8" of snow since 8 am. Still pouring.

 

still amazed at what passes here with no headline.

 

HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL

ACCUMULATIONS IN AREAS TARGETED BY WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT

BAND (IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT)...CENTERED ON EAST JORDAN IN

CHARLEVOIX COUNTY WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF

ACCUMULATION.

 

When I moved up to TC in '90, it was common knowledge that folks died from driving their cars off roads and into trees during those zero vis squalls. I think they just felt that it came with the territory. Don't remember hearing any complaints that the NWS hadn't "warned the public". In a serious winter, there's just too many events/surprises to cover. Heck, I remember one morning on my drive into work, I came into Kalkaska and they had been pounded with a steamer that dropped 18-20 inches. Total random event. I watched the TV weather (pre-net days), had NOAA radio, etc.. and there was never a mention of anything more than the typical snow showers in the forecast.

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Berrien County is going to take another smackdown with this LES event. I would chase it, but I'm still concerned the band may wobble back and forth a little bit (although latest models are backing off of a transient band). 

 

Doubt we get so lucky to be in the bullseye twice here on the north end, but it should be a nice little blast of winter either way. Could be my "November to remember". At least since '89.

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When I moved up to TC in '90, it was common knowledge that folks died from driving their cars off roads and into trees during those zero vis squalls. I think they just felt that it came with the territory. Don't remember hearing any complaints that the NWS hadn't "warned the public". In a serious winter, there's just too many events/surprises to cover. Heck, I remember one morning on my drive into work, I came into Kalkaska and they had been pounded with a steamer that dropped 18-20 inches. Total random event. I watched the TV weather (pre-net days), had NOAA radio, etc.. and there was never a mention of anything more than the typical snow showers in the forecast.

Cometely get what you're saying. Only my second winter here and I'm still amazed when 5" falls in a few hours, and no one else seems to blink around here.
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Another 3-5" tonight and tomorrow, mostly tonight tho.

snowing fairly heavily, gonna be nearing a foot on the ground before long.

 

NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT EVENT HAS BEGUN IN ERNEST THIS EVENING
AS CAA COMMENCES IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT PRODUCED
WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA. MANY
LOCATIONS WEST OF US 131 HAVE RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
TODAY...WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS...

 

 

some intense snows

 

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DAB here in Windsor area. Got in a light salting on two of my main lots which have zero tolerances WRT snow. Everything seems to be falling into place for winter to be a success.

 

Its funny how two locations with a few miles of each other can vary with so much deviation. I wonder how much difference there is between Detroit City and Windsor airport.

 

Good question.

 

I forget that Windsor's airport is well south of town. I would assume its stats would likely be more in line with Dearborn/Wyandotte on Detroit's side of the border than Detroit City Airport.

 

Like last year for example, Detroit City Airport missed out on a lot of the LES banding in the ARB-DTW corridor to the NE, but I bet that LES banding impacted Windsor's Airport. 

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Back under a snowsquall watch.  Local forecast is for 30cms by tomorrow.  If a band can lock on us similar to last weekend, it may be realistic. Huge gradient for amts. in the area from the last storm.  In the west end we got 20+ inches, in the east end at the airport which has the weather reporting station it was probably 6 - 8 max.

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Back under a snowsquall watch.  Local forecast is for 30cms by tomorrow.  If a band can lock on us similar to last weekend, it may be realistic. Huge gradient for amts. in the area from the last storm.  In the west end we got 20+ inches, in the east end at the airport which has the weather reporting station it was probably 6 - 8 max.

 

Does the west side usually get hit more by the Lake Effect snow? I'm just interested in the climatology.

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