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Pre-Thanksgiving Cold, LES/Other Snow Prospects


Geos

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An inch sounds good.

 

EURO showing LES for Cook County and Lake Co. IN.

 

snowfall112513.png

 

Great winter pictures Nicky and Wish!

 

West end of Holland getting blasted with 30dbz +.

 

Next week will remind many people on this forum of heart of January kind of weather; light snows and consistent highs in the 20s and low 30s.

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Only received about what looks like a couple inches of snow here in Hancock, MI. Dry air and unfavorable wind direction to blame. We usually don't do well with NNW wind. Isle Royale cuts the fetch down. A west flow is the best for here. 

 

Its hard to study Keweenaw LES with no radar there.

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IWX...

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
400 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013

PREFERENCE THIS AFTN LIES W/SHARPER H5 EVOLUTION ALOFT MID PD IN
RESPONSE TO EWD EJECTION OF STG SRN STREAM SW UNDERNEATH AMPLIFYING
NRN STREAM ACRS THE WRN LAKES WHICH PROVIDES A PATHWAY FOR SOME XPCD
PHASING ALOFT. AS SUCH AND IN TANDEM W/GEM/NAM/EC TRENDS...BUMPED
POPS CONSIDERABLY WED-THU FOR WHAT SHLD BE A SIG LK EFFECT SNOW
EVENT
AS YET ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN AIR FUNNELS SWD ACRS THE
LAKES.
 

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Actually getting a decent snow squall in Athens (knocked the visibility down to about half a mile for a few minutes, covered the ground) which is a minor miracle. That band into Traverse City was awesome, didn't move for quite a while. Looks to be pushing east a bit now however, let's see if it stalls again.

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Serious snow band has now fully organized north of Toronto coming off Georgian Bay.

 

BZyrI2tCYAANBf7.png

 

Looks very well developed. Reports of snow now in the outskirts of Richmond Hill. Lets hope it can keep its intensity and formation well developed through the next few hours. Temperatures down to -7.2C (19F) at YYZ. 

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flow is beginning to back a bit already and should push heavier snow north of Traverse and into the traditional nw flow areas.

Should be able to squeak out an additional 3-5" here before noon tomorrow.

 

i'm 5 miles west of East Jordan...

 

0513 PM     SNOW             EAST JORDAN             45.16N 85.12W
11/23/2013  M4.5 INCH        CHARLEVOIX         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW DURATION 12 HOURS
 



 

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

300 PM CST SAT NOV 23 2013 /400 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013/

SHOULD THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO-

OHARE VERIFY TONIGHT...THE LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NOVEMBER

24TH WILL BE THE COLDEST THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON IN OVER 20

YEARS FOR BOTH LOCATIONS.

THE FORECAST LOW FOR ROCKFORD IS 7 DEGREES. YOU HAVE TO GO ALL THE

WAY BACK TO NOVEMBER 7TH 1991 FOR A TEMPERATURE THIS LOW IN THE

FIRST 24 DAYS OF THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS OCCURRENCE OF A LOW

TEMPERATURE COLDER THAN 10 DEGREES THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON WAS

NOVEMBER 24TH 1997...WHICH BOTTOMED OUT AT 9 DEGREES.

IN CHICAGO...THE FORECAST LOW IS 11 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME CHICAGO

SAW A TEMPERATURE THIS COLD THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON WAS ON

NOVEMBER 4TH 1991. A LOW TEMPERATURE COLDER THAN 15 DEGREES THIS

EARLY IN THE SEASON LAST OCCURRED BACK ON NOVEMBER 22ND

2000...WHEN THE MERCURY DIPPED TO 14 DEGREES.

 

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At 7 pm, the temperature in Detroit stood at 20°. That figure is below both the MAV and MET MOS forecasts for 0z. Tomorrow will likely see Detroit have one of its colder minimum and maximum temperatures for November 24.

 

Lowest Maximum Temperature for 11/24:

Record: 17°, 1950

< 20°: 1 case

< 25°: 3 cases

< 30°: 9 cases

 

Lowest Minimum Temperature for 11/24:

Record: 7°, 1950

< 10°: 1 case

< 15°: 4 cases

< 20°: 16 cases

 

Period of record: 1874-2012 (threaded)

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Environment Canada really should have issued a snow squall watch today, and should have one right now. That band is creeping its way towards the GTA and could be very problematic for drivers.

 

Looks like it is already there!

 

post-7389-0-32520000-1385252457_thumb.pn

 

Down to 16° here. Low forecasted is now 7°.

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Colossal error made by Environment Canada. They should have issued a snow squall watch for at least eastern sections of the GTA. They are about to get hammered with squalls. Not even a special weather statement--simply "locally 1 inch overnight"; snow squalls are extremely dangerous for driving and there is nothing about this on any of our news outlets which tend to rely heavily on EC's calls. It's moments like this that make me so frustrated. There were already some very serious accidents earlier today just north of the city.

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