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Pre-Thanksgiving Cold, LES/Other Snow Prospects


Geos

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my hourly has my windchill going below zero (-1F) early sunday morning....gonna be a fun front yard tailgate party sunday morning!

 

I got a wind chill dipping to -4° Sunday morning. 

 

LES making it's way across the UP of MI now. Arctic air about to hit northern Lake MI.

 

RGEM LES predictions.

 

post-7389-0-49624700-1385178744_thumb.pn

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I always love it when they add that. They must think everyone's like BowMe walking out wearing nothing but thongs and Coppertone.

 

IWX even mentioned single digit wind chills down here in the tropics.

 

Lol! Heck I saw someone wearing shorts today.

 

Frontal snow moving over the Mackinaw.

 

APX.N0Q.20131123.0601.gif

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APX pulled the trigger... LES Warning now.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI955 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2013MIZ020-021-026-027-231100-/O.UPG.KAPX.LE.A.0002.131123T1200Z-131124T1200Z//O.NEW.KAPX.LE.W.0007.131123T1200Z-131124T1200Z/LEELANAU-ANTRIM-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA955 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2013...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AMEST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM ESTSUNDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND   INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO   30 MPH CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. * SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS   WILL IMPACT THE WARNING AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE   WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. * STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES   WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER   AMOUNTS. * WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO   AT TIMES.



			
		
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Hopefully me:)

 

 

But you're on the west side aren't you Nicky? This looks to smack my old backyard on the east side. APX showing 12-15" there. Sometimes I really miss living in the northland, though I've been really fortunate getting bullseyed with that pounding last week down here along the sunset coast. No complaints here, none

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snow has gotten steadier again. have picked up 2.5". really hard to tell exactly but that matches some reports(3.5") nearby.  grass is totally covered.

bands have become more connected to superior as well.

 

 

Good observation, the superior bands and Lake Michigan bands are now on the same flow pattern, earlier they were not connected.

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Not to be outdone by areas farther north along Lake Michigan IWX has issued a LES advisory for 3-7 inches in favored geographical areas from now till Sunday morning.  Supposed to ramp up later today into the overnight hours but I drove through a nice squall on the west side of South Bend earlier this morning on my way back to Elkhart.

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Not to be outdone by areas farther north along Lake Michigan IWX has issued a LES advisory for 3-7 inches in favored geographical areas from now till Sunday morning.  Supposed to ramp up later today into the overnight hours but I drove through a nice squall on the west side of South Bend earlier this morning on my way back to Elkhart.

 

Actually, this time looks like we will be, but hey, we already scored 11/12-Nov down here so we're actually ahead of the game so to speak. I'm still parking next to the piles from that dumping. That was a very moist snow for LE and I suspect this will be more traditional fluffy stuff overnight. Looks like IWX got a little bolder on the high-end range. Hope it doesn't backfire on 'em. They shot low last event. Would be nice to see events of all types over-performing going into this winter. :santa:  

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Temp been falling since sunrise, now near steady at 20°.

 

13z HRRR for snowfall

 

acsnw_t7sfc_f15.png

 

The HRRR usually underestimates LES.... According to this, the hardest hit spot will be close to 5 inches, where we know the hardest hit spot will easily be in double digits.

 

That's 15 hours, I would assume a few places would hit a foot by that time.

 

I guess we will find out.

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The HRRR usually underestimates LES.... According to this, the hardest hit spot will be close to 5 inches, where we know the hardest hit spot will easily be in double digits.

 

That's 15 hours, I would assume a few places would hit a foot by that time.

 

I guess we will find out.

 

What's it problem then? Can't figure out the correct ratios?

 

Just stepped outside into the wind. It's brutal... wind chill +6°

 

APX graphic

 

File.png

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some prospects for non - LES in LOT....

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
151 PM CST SAT NOV 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
145 PM CST

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NORTHWEST FLOW UPPER TROUGHS IS PROGGED TO
DIG ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY/MONDAY. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
MAIN DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL PASS LARGELY NORTH OF THE CWA MONDAY...
THOUGH 30-40 KT SOUTHWEST 850 HPA FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO GENERATE
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO APPEAR POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80 B
ASED ON QPF PLACEMENT
CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING TO OUR NORTH. A SECOND VORT
DIGS INTO THE TROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHICH SLOWS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY PRODUCE
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EVENTUALLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING
DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS LAKE/PORTER COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE NORTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC
RIDGE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
 

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