Gilbertfly Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 From DVN. -5° - 0° mentioned. my hourly has my windchill going below zero (-1F) early sunday morning....gonna be a fun front yard tailgate party sunday morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 my hourly has my windchill going below zero (-1F) early sunday morning....gonna be a fun front yard tailgate party sunday morning! I got a wind chill dipping to -4° Sunday morning. LES making it's way across the UP of MI now. Arctic air about to hit northern Lake MI. RGEM LES predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 "They must think everyone's like BowMe walking out wearing nothing but thongs and Coppertone." lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 I always love it when they add that. They must think everyone's like BowMe walking out wearing nothing but thongs and Coppertone. IWX even mentioned single digit wind chills down here in the tropics. Lol! Heck I saw someone wearing shorts today. Frontal snow moving over the Mackinaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 APX pulled the trigger... LES Warning now. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI955 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2013MIZ020-021-026-027-231100-/O.UPG.KAPX.LE.A.0002.131123T1200Z-131124T1200Z//O.NEW.KAPX.LE.W.0007.131123T1200Z-131124T1200Z/LEELANAU-ANTRIM-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA955 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2013...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AMEST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM ESTSUNDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 30 MPH CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. * SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE WARNING AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. * STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. * WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 pretty heavy snow has been falling for a few hours now. flow should begin to veer more nnw and tap superior better. where that bands sets up, someone will see 15"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Hopefully me:) pretty heavy snow has been falling for a few hours now. flow should begin to veer more nnw and tap superior better. where that bands sets up, someone will see 15"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Hopefully me:) yeah, Traverse is looking like the sweet spot. what area do you live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 chill pouring in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Hopefully me:) But you're on the west side aren't you Nicky? This looks to smack my old backyard on the east side. APX showing 12-15" there. Sometimes I really miss living in the northland, though I've been really fortunate getting bullseyed with that pounding last week down here along the sunset coast. No complaints here, none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Nice snow shower here. Coating the ground nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Pretty intense snow shower might squeeze out an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Same deal here, intense snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 snow has gotten steadier again. have picked up 2.5". really hard to tell exactly but that matches some reports(3.5") nearby. grass is totally covered. bands have become more connected to superior as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 9 miles N of Traverse on Old Mission Peninsula, right in the middle of where Gaylord thinks the dominant NNW/SSE oriented band connected to L Superior will develop later:) yeah, Traverse is looking like the sweet spot. what area do you live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Where ever the dominate bands setup will determine who gets the 12 inches or not..... We know the likely spot, lets see if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 snow has gotten steadier again. have picked up 2.5". really hard to tell exactly but that matches some reports(3.5") nearby. grass is totally covered. bands have become more connected to superior as well. Good observation, the superior bands and Lake Michigan bands are now on the same flow pattern, earlier they were not connected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Pretty intense snow shower might squeeze out an inch. Same deal here, intense snow showers. Congrats over there. Just a skiff on the west coast attm. Thinking main show over here waits for nightfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Solid coating everywhere but the roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Not to be outdone by areas farther north along Lake Michigan IWX has issued a LES advisory for 3-7 inches in favored geographical areas from now till Sunday morning. Supposed to ramp up later today into the overnight hours but I drove through a nice squall on the west side of South Bend earlier this morning on my way back to Elkhart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 Temp been falling since sunrise, now near steady at 20°. 13z HRRR for snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Not to be outdone by areas farther north along Lake Michigan IWX has issued a LES advisory for 3-7 inches in favored geographical areas from now till Sunday morning. Supposed to ramp up later today into the overnight hours but I drove through a nice squall on the west side of South Bend earlier this morning on my way back to Elkhart. Actually, this time looks like we will be, but hey, we already scored 11/12-Nov down here so we're actually ahead of the game so to speak. I'm still parking next to the piles from that dumping. That was a very moist snow for LE and I suspect this will be more traditional fluffy stuff overnight. Looks like IWX got a little bolder on the high-end range. Hope it doesn't backfire on 'em. They shot low last event. Would be nice to see events of all types over-performing going into this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Temp been falling since sunrise, now near steady at 20°. 13z HRRR for snowfall The HRRR usually underestimates LES.... According to this, the hardest hit spot will be close to 5 inches, where we know the hardest hit spot will easily be in double digits. That's 15 hours, I would assume a few places would hit a foot by that time. I guess we will find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 The HRRR usually underestimates LES.... According to this, the hardest hit spot will be close to 5 inches, where we know the hardest hit spot will easily be in double digits. That's 15 hours, I would assume a few places would hit a foot by that time. I guess we will find out. What's it problem then? Can't figure out the correct ratios? Just stepped outside into the wind. It's brutal... wind chill +6° APX graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 Camera NW of Traverse City, which is pretty much in the band Jonger highlighted above. Petoskey cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 Nice LES band right on the shore by Muskegon to Holland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 About 4" thus far. Really starting to pick again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 some prospects for non - LES in LOT.... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL151 PM CST SAT NOV 23 2013.DISCUSSION...145 PM CSTTHE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NORTHWEST FLOW UPPER TROUGHS IS PROGGED TODIG ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY/MONDAY. GUIDANCE INDICATES THEMAIN DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL PASS LARGELY NORTH OF THE CWA MONDAY...THOUGH 30-40 KT SOUTHWEST 850 HPA FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCESUFFICIENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO GENERATELIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTSTO PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO APPEAR POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...WITH THEGREATEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80 BASED ON QPF PLACEMENTCLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING TO OUR NORTH. A SECOND VORTDIGS INTO THE TROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHICH SLOWS EASTWARDPROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY PRODUCESOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. THEUPPER TROUGH AXIS EVENTUALLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAYNIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING AND PRODUCINGDRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS LAKE/PORTER COUNTIES INNORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE NORTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFCRIDGE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAYNIGHT/WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 LE Bands.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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