Geos Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 LES looks to make a return to areas that usually receive snowfall in a NW flow over the weekend and into next week. EURO is showing a small system on Monday that could be something of note outside of the areas that have been impacted by LES. Looks like lows could get into the teens over widespread area for the first time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I'm not feeling the lake effect (this weekend) .... very dry air mass. 5-7" maybe, in a single band type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 I'm not feeling the lake effect (this weekend) .... very dry air mass. 5-7" maybe, in a single band type event. Well that's better than 0"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Well that's better than 0"! IKR, but with high's in the low 20's, the potential was there for a big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 LE appetizer this weekend....LE main course during the week? Not saying the main course will be lobster and prime rib....but a meal none the less... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 Arctic air mass is slowing seeping into south central WI tonight. Looks to be down to freezing by daybreak here, then continually fall off. Tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL824 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013 /924 PM EST THU NOV 21 2013/ ..IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEASON COLD SNAP ON THE WAY THIS WEEKENDBASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO COULD BE ONTRACK TO HAVE THE COLDEST 2 DAY PERIOD FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASONSINCE BACK ON NOVEMBER 21ST AND 22ND 2000.FORECASTS FOR THIS WEEKEND CALL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TOAROUND 30 AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S INCHICAGO...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES COLDERIN ROCKFORD.BACK ON NOV 21ST AND 22ND, 2000 ROCKFORD HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 30AND 26 RESPECTIVELY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS OF 11 DEGREES.IN CHICAGO...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE 24 AND 30 WITH LOWTEMPERATURES OF 14 DEGREES BOTH DAYS. SO WHILE IT IS NOTUNPRECEDENTED TO SEE TEMPERATURES SO UNSEASONABLY COLD THISEARLY...IT IS FAR FROM COMMON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 SWS out for the Quad Cities area tonight. Rain changing rapidly to snow just west of the MS River. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL1142 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013IAZ054-064>068-076>078-087-ILZ001-015-220900-JACKSON-JOHNSON-CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-JO DAVIESS-ROCK ISLAND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MAQUOKETA...IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF...DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...FAIRFIELD...GALENA...MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND1142 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013...PATCHY FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY 3AM...AREAS OF LIGHT TO VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH3 AM. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW 32 DEGREES BEFORE 3 AM.THIS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FREEZING ON EXPOSED SURFACES AND BRIDGES.THE RAIN OR ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY 3 AM. ANYPRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ORLESS AND COMBINED WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SEVERAL DEGREESABOVE FREEZING...THIS MAY RESULT IN ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO BE AGLAZE ON EXPOSED SURFACES. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO LIGHTSNOW OR FLURRIES BY 3 AFTER MIDNIGHT...A DUSTING TO A QUARTER INCHOF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.THOSE INDIVIDUALS OUTSIDE AND AREA MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FORSLIPPERY SPOTS THROUGH 3 AM. EURO showing accumulations from north of a line running Keokuk, IA to the Chicago Loop. Mostly under an inch, except for out in the Iowa City area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I'm surprised APX hasn't issued any headlines, there should be something interesting happening around Kalkaska/Cadillac/Gaylord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 HRRR definitely showing snow downwind of Grand Traverse Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I'm surprised APX hasn't issued any headlines, there should be something interesting happening around Kalkaska/Cadillac/Gaylord.My guess is they'll issue an adv later today. Possibility exists of a real heavy snow in the vicinity of Grand Traverse Bay Area if winds lock in nnw.I'm thinking a general 4-5" and isolated 8" amounts as things stand now. As witnessed last year, lake effect in nw lower always has a few surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Zone has 4-6" with more accum possible sat night so I'm def saying advisories go out tonight. Tonight: Mostly clear in the evening...then occasional snow showers after midnight. Blowing snow after midnight. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Lows in the lower 20s. West winds 5 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph increasing to 30 mph after midnight. Saturday: Occasional snow showers. Blowing snow. Breezy... Colder. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 4 inches. Highs in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph. Saturday Night: Breezy...colder. Occasional snow showers. Blowing snow. Accumulation possible. Lows around 11. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Just released by APX Lake effect snow showers will increase late tonight across East Upper and Northwest Lower Michigan, and then continue through Saturday and Saturday night. Based on predicted wind directions, the heaviest snow is expected to occur across Northwest Lower Michigan along and west of US-131, including the communities of Bellaire, Kalkaska, Traverse City, and Frankfort. By Sunday morning, 5 to 9 inches of new snow will be likely in these areas, with locally greater amounts a good possibility. Across East Upper Michigan, lesser amounts of snow are expected. Several inches will likely fall around Whitefish Point, with heavier amounts expected to the west of Whitefish Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 1050 HP via the 12Z ECMWF working it's way into the CONUS tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Here is my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Here is my thinking. Snow map.jpg I like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I would love enough to cover the grass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 snow from this morning has ended. real action should start overnight.... should see an adv or warning issued with the afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Could see some sub-zero wind chills in the region Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 Band of -SN moving through DLH, 20° only there. Nice pic Bo. What's the snow shovel doing under the tree!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Band of -SN moving through DLH, 20° only there. Nice pic Bo. What's the snow shovel doing under the tree!? my puppy poops like a grown man. I use a small rake and the shovel to keep the yard clean.... nice ob! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 As expected APX issues an advisory..... likely upgraded in parts to warning tomorrow. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.* HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.* LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW AND SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL READINGS. my zone cast is 7-14" with accum possible after that. nice call jonger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 As expected APX issues an advisory..... likely upgraded in parts to warning tomorrow. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. * HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. * LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. * GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW AND SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL READINGS. my zone cast is 7-14" with accum possible after that. nice call jonger! No kiddin nice call! LES is one of the harder things to get right too. Looking like the vectors are pretty favorable for my old place in eastern GT county to get some decent early season action too. Keep the pic's coming when you get the chance. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 As expected APX issues an advisory..... likely upgraded in parts to warning tomorrow. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. * HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. * LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. * GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW AND SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL READINGS. my zone cast is 7-14" with accum possible after that. nice call jonger! It actually looks like APX issued a watch kicking in at 7am tomorrow. The winds literally look like they shift less than 10 degrees from tomorrow morning through Sunday morning on the NAM. With a very high cap I don't see why someone won't get clocked up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 It actually looks like APX issued a watch kicking in at 7am tomorrow. The winds literally look like they shift less than 10 degrees from tomorrow morning through Sunday morning on the NAM. With a very high cap I don't see why someone won't get clocked up your way. yeah I mistook the watch for an advisory.... colors are so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Band of -SN moving through DLH, 20° only there. Nice pic Bo. What's the snow shovel doing under the tree!? My old neighbor would shovel a huge circle of snow down to the grass around his big Maple tree so he could feed the dumb pigeons. Bleck. Atleast shovel "grass circles" for birds that are a bit more, desirable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 yeah I mistook the watch for an advisory.... colors are so close On the national map I thought it was an advisory too (and was kind of surprised) until I looked closer. Was surprised to see them go watch this close to the start of the heavy snow but I guess this gives them another few hours to really fine tune things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 my puppy poops like a grown man. I use a small rake and the shovel to keep the yard clean.... nice ob! My old neighbor would shovel a huge circle of snow down to the grass around his big Maple tree so he could feed the dumb pigeons. Bleck. Atleast shovel "grass circles" for birds that are a bit more, desirable. Well I keep a shovel on the back porch, but it's to shovel out from underneath the bird feeder and by the grill. Rarely see pigeons here on the property - about everything else though! Forecasted low tomorrow is 10°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 From DVN. -5° - 0° mentioned. ...BITTER COLD WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR INVADING EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOISAND NORTHEAST MISSOURI TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE SHARPLY COLDERWEATHER AS IT LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE 20S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURSSATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ANDTEENS. WHEN COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS...IT WILL FEEL AS COLDAS 5 ABOVE ZERO TO 5 BELOW SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST AIR WILLARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN TEMPERATURES AREEXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER PORTIONS OF EASTCENTRAL IOWA. EVEN LIGHT WINDS WILL DRIVE WIND CHILL VALUES INTOTHE RANGE OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON SO FAR. IF YOUHAVE OUTDOOR PLANS...MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR WINTER CONDITIONS.REMEMBER THAT SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHES WILL KEEP YOU WARMER THANA SINGLE HEAVY COAT. WEAR A HAT AND MITTENS. LES about to blow ashore in the UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 From DVN. -5° - 0° mentioned. ...WEAR A HAT AND MITTENS. I always love it when they add that. They must think everyone's like BowMe walking out wearing nothing but thongs and Coppertone. IWX even mentioned single digit wind chills down here in the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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