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Central PA - Early December


MAG5035

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Here in State College, we managed to dodge just about every band and shower we could have and ended up with an almost bare ground. I guess that's not that surprising.

 

Looking at the NAM (which is in general agreement with the other models) suggests 4-6 inches of snow before mixing by hour 60 and turning to rain thereafter, then back to snow at the end for another 3-5 inch thump on the backside by hour 84. Snow is pulling out at that time but still overhead, so maybe another inch or two after the end of the run.

 

Of course, those are all specifics that will change from run to run.

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IDC if there is rain, if it snows 9" lol

 

I do if it means there are only a few inches on the ground at the end.

 

I dunno, I've never experienced a storm like this. I would guess that heavy rain, even at 34F, would destroy the snow that falls first and that only the second batch would end up sticking around. Does that sound right?

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I do if it means there are only a few inches on the ground at the end.

 

I dunno, I've never experienced a storm like this. I would guess that heavy rain, even at 34F, would destroy the snow that falls first and that only the second batch would end up sticking around. Does that sound right?

 

Not sure. Who knows how this will even set up . 

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Not sure. Who knows how this will even set up . 

 

But that's my point... even though the Euro ensemble mean is giving me 7" of snow, I worry about how much of that will only last a few hours and get wiped out by rain. I can't get nearly as excited by a Euro ensemble plot showing 7" of snow when so many of those members have a heavy rain in the middle of it.

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But that's my point... even though the Euro ensemble mean is giving me 7" of snow, I worry about how much of that will only last a few hours and get wiped out by rain. I can't get nearly as excited by a Euro ensemble plot showing 7" of snow when so many of those members have a heavy rain in the middle of it.

 

Snow is snow. Idc how much falls, just as long as it does. 

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But that's my point... even though the Euro ensemble mean is giving me 7" of snow, I worry about how much of that will only last a few hours and get wiped out by rain. I can't get nearly as excited by a Euro ensemble plot showing 7" of snow when so many of those members have a heavy rain in the middle of it.

If you get 7 inches of snow and temp only goes to 34 after with the rain you will lose some snow pack but at those temperatures you should still hold on to much of it. JMHO

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Here in State College, we managed to dodge just about every band and shower we could have and ended up with an almost bare ground. I guess that's not that surprising.

 

Looking at the NAM (which is in general agreement with the other models) suggests 4-6 inches of snow before mixing by hour 60 and turning to rain thereafter, then back to snow at the end for another 3-5 inch thump on the backside by hour 84. Snow is pulling out at that time but still overhead, so maybe another inch or two after the end of the run.

 

Of course, those are all specifics that will change from run to run.

 

Last night was less the bands breaking up and more just plain dumb luck. The area down by Water Street (webcam on near US 22) has a fair amount of snow and they are east of the weather Ginzu and are more or less like UNV.

 

 

But that's my point... even though the Euro ensemble mean is giving me 7" of snow, I worry about how much of that will only last a few hours and get wiped out by rain. I can't get nearly as excited by a Euro ensemble plot showing 7" of snow when so many of those members have a heavy rain in the middle of it.

Depends on how much snow, how cold it is and how long the rain last. What could happen and I am a bit concerned about this, we get compacted snow with lots of puddles and then it freezes solid with snow on top. Ugh.

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I do if it means there are only a few inches on the ground at the end.

 

I dunno, I've never experienced a storm like this. I would guess that heavy rain, even at 34F, would destroy the snow that falls first and that only the second batch would end up sticking around. Does that sound right?

 

Obviously it depends on the amount of snowfall before the rain, how much rain at what temperature and how much snowfall after the rain. If the ground gets too wet during the rain, that could also limit the accumulation of snow afterwards.

 

How much snowfall that does occur after any changeover will probably depend on how deep and how consolidated the system becomes. A more elongated system like that forecast by the Euro will have less banding wrapping around.

 

In the case of the 00z Euro, a few inches fall in UNV before a changeover to heavy rain occurs which would probably melt most of the snow accumulation. It does suggest some lake enhancement/upslope/deformation snow showers as the system departs.

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My feeling is those who cash in on the lake effect will have a cold enough ground but also enough of a snow pack to hold temperatures down a few extra degrees. Also elevation will be key to everything. JST's  reporting location is on a plateau at the airport about 5 to 6 miles east of town. Maybe the airport gets 6 inches but downtown may have more mixing problems. 

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Wow.

 

NBC 25 UPDATE: One person dead from the multi-vehicle accident on I-81 N in PA, according to PA State Police. They say the eight-car pile-up, including two tractor trailers happened around 9:30 a.m. in Franklin County. They are also saying multiple people suffered from severe injuries. Police believe weather may have been a factor in the crash. 

Medical units and police are still on the scene. They expect the northbound lane to be closed for at least another six hours.

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