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Central PA - Early December


MAG5035

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Typical Tamaqua winter weather event setting up for us. Per the latest CTP forecast, unseasonably cold today and tomorrow, then we warm up enough for this:

 

Tuesday Night - Rain. Low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday - Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

 

Then right back to being unseasonably cold immediately afterward.

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CTP has HBG in the mid 40s Wednesday now.

By parents n the other hand in East Texas today are set for .2-.3" ice and .5" sleet. Last year they had more snow than me too, lol.

That might be an early in the day high, given what the models are showing (rain to snow scenario Wednesday)

 

Have to say, talking about the possibility of mid 40s Nov. 27 for Harrisburg as "warm" is quite a statement about how cold this pattern is.

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Snow is just about ending here as the streamer drifts to the south. Got 6 inches and no advisory.

 

6 inches?! Thats awesome. And yea I'm surprised CTP never threw advisories up for Cambria yesterday for overnight and into today. If those kinds of amounts were to be reported to them via spotter reports or social media (facebook), they probably would have threw one up. 

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NAM suggest holiday travel by boat. 

 

 

Well, gives my house west a horrible ice storm.

 

The NAM ptypes actually have alot of blue in it. Not much of an ice signal on it, at least using the ptype maps I have...although I know how the central is when it comes to surface temps during these kind of events. Seems to suggest rain/snow line lurks just to our west Jamie and then eventually the deform hangs over and changes all of us to snow eventually. The models that have been allegedly "on the ball" with having this more wound up solution (ie everything that doesn't pertain to the GFS) have generally been suggesting kind of a rare look to ptype placement with western-most PA staying more snow and central and east mixing or having rain. So it's gonna be interesting to see what ends up happening. The NAM's low track is actually quite favorable for most of the area, so once (if) the storm starts rapidly deepening off the Mid Atlantic coast the temps crash. This is gonna be a tough one to forecast, especially for the western half of the state. 

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