Mallow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Don't make anything of any kind of any NAM run. Last Feb it was showing 6 feet of snow in a part of NJ that ended up with 3 to 5 in. at the end with the 2/8 storm. Just forget that model. The one thing I think the NAM does well is to gradually but consistently trend the right direction. Which is why I'm encouraged that the 00z run is further east than the 18z run was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 GFS has started, lets see if it gets its wheels on the track. BTW cold!!! 28 with 15 windchill right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Watching movies with the wife tonight, and all night PennDOT trucks have been going past. Must be icy out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Based on the GFS ensemble spread and the biggest difference I can see between the west and suppressed solutions by hr 24 (the shortwave ridge over the Yukon and Northwest Territories), it seems like the 00z might be continuing on the road to suppressed-ville. Still really early in the run to say for sure, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Based on the GFS ensemble spread and the biggest difference I can see between the west and suppressed solutions by hr 24 (the shortwave ridge over the Yukon and Northwest Territories), it seems like the 00z might be continuing on the road to suppressed-ville. Still really early in the run to say for sure, though. Then again, the southern system seems to be noticeably further northeast by hr 45. Maybe that means something. EDIT: Based on the ridge over BC at hr 42, I'd say it's still going to be suppressed, but a little bit less so. But based on the position of the cutoff, I'm not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 MAYBE IT MEANS NOTHING AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Vort digging deeper from northern stream this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 GFS NW, but doesn't appear to be as bad as NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 GFS folding up like a cheap lawn chair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 looks suppressed still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 looks suppressed still. It is getting there. Precip makes it back into Central pa this run. SC gets dumped on by heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Pretty sure I get like 10" of snow this run. lol Like that will happen. pshh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I'll take whatever the GFS is having. I know it won't happen, but man it is nice to look at only being 72hrs out till it would start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 GFS even gives 4-5" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The set the GFS took it is pretty well on it's way to becoming amped by tomorrows runs i'm sure. We can't get that lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 NWS Upped snow chances for mby: Snow showers likely, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Sunday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Blustery, with a northwest wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Looks like another snow band forming over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Long range GFS is pure porn material. But snows Dec 5th and 8th and then massive cold. Widespread -10 to -15C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 NWS Upped snow chances for mby: Snow showers likely, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Sunday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Blustery, with a northwest wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Looks like another snow band forming over us. same here.. Overnight Snow showers likely with widespread blowing snow before 2am, then snow showers with widespread blowing snow after 2am. Low around 15. West wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Sunday Snow showers with widespread blowing snow. High near 23. Wind chill values as low as -1. Northwest wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. around 1" now and still snowing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Long range GFS is pure porn material. But snows Dec 5th and 8th and then massive cold. Widespread -10 to -15C. Wow very nice, I saw that. Currently snowing here, 18.3 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Wow very nice, I saw that. Currently snowing here, 18.3 degrees. Lucky. lol. Had a little flake action earlier. Now partly cloudy, 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 CMC says ya right GFS and take a low up over Baltimore. Rain till end then snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 same here.. Overnight Snow showers likely with widespread blowing snow before 2am, then snow showers with widespread blowing snow after 2am. Low around 15. West wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Sunday Snow showers with widespread blowing snow. High near 23. Wind chill values as low as -1. Northwest wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. around 1" now and still snowing.. We are closing in on an inch, took this little while ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Looks like the Erie/Huron connection is just starting. Should have a nice band form in PA over next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I saw some snow flurries around 7 tonight. But man it's freaking cool old out with these 40 mph gusts we're having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Dew point is 9. Wonder how far we fall tonight. Model say 19. Will be interesting to see if we go lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 UKMET also massively phased. GFS still lagging behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 GFS blows. Euro way amped and warm. Soaking rains for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Big rain to snow at the end. Wraps up so much there is wrap around .25-.50" qpf for snow. lol. All sorts of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 From HI RES Euro not the bs euro snow map. Good lake effect as well adds to totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Damnedest Euro run ever. UNV gets ice to rain to several inches of snow. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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