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Central PA - Early December


MAG5035

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The snow squall here fell apart mostly before coming through. It was cold and windy, but the snow was only light-moderate. Enough to dust some surfaces, but nothing more. I'll take whatever I can get, though.

Held together a little better up here in Bellefonte. Came down pretty good and coated everything but the roads.

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Even though several members would appear to be NW of the op there's still at least 7 or 8 of the 12 members that either have hardly any QPF in PA or mainly just in the southeastern quarter of the state.

 

Yep. In fact, 11 of the 20 ensemble members have essentially nothing at UNV:

StateCollege,PA-ptype.png

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I like Mount Hollys approach to the situation, haha. 

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONGTERM IS THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM PROGGED FOR
A LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ARRIVAL. THERE IS STILL A PRETTY
DECENT SPREAD IN THE MODELING THOUGH WE ARE FORTUNATE THAT IT IS
STILL 4-5 DAYS AWAY SO THERE IS TIME TO FIND A CONSENSUS. FOR THE
MOST PART BOTH THE RGEM AND GFS WERE DISCOUNTED FOR THEIR EITHER TOO
FAR WEST OR EAST SOLUTIONS, RESPECTIVELY. THE NEW 12Z EURO WAS ALSO
DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME GIVEN ITS FASTER PHASING OF THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEMS, ONE IN THE LAKES AND THE OTHER IN THE GOMEX.
THIS
ULTIMATELY LEADS TO AN INLAND TRACK MID-WEEK AND SLOWS THE EXIT OF
THE SYSTEM DOWN...ITS ENSEMBLE DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS OCCURRENCE BUT
MORESO WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE.

 


 
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Ya the low jumps back south a bit cause northern stream more causes first storm and southern vort causes second. 

That thing would be an icy mess just west of UNV/AOO; my backyard is right on the surface freezing line the entire time. The way we hold onto cold air in the Bald Eagle Valley if it ended up as modeled we might never get above freezing.

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