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Central PA - Early December


MAG5035

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Interesting about tomorrow and Thanksgiving; might be some surprises like Saturday/Sunday:

 

WED WILL SEE THE STORM RACE UP THROUGH EASTERN PA OR NJ IN THE
MORNING WITH THE PRECIP WINDING DOWN AS THE LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE. POTENTIAL COMPLICATING FACTOR WOULD BE IF A TRAILING
WAVE KEEPS PRECIP GOING THROUGH MID DAY. AT THIS POINT WE SHOULD
SEE AN END TO THE STEADY PRECIP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH BREEZY AND COLDER CONDITIONS SWEEPING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AND BLUSTERY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...
DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

DEEP SFC LOW OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AT 00Z THU WILL LIFT NWD INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND BY 12Z THU. ONCE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH
THE REGION...THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A BLUSTERY AND COLD NW
FLOW REGIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...COMPLETE WITH LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THE
HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW INTENSE/NARROW LONG-FETCH
BANDS/SQUALLS WITH A HURON CONNECTION IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE WRN
ALLEGHENIES...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE CNTRL MTNS. USED
A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR QPF/SNOW AMTS WHICH RESULTED IN AN
ADDNL 2-4" OVER THE NW SNOWBELT WITH A GENERAL 1-2" ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
BANDS PERSIST FOR LONGER DURATIONS. FREQUENT WNW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
20-30KTS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS WED NGT. HIGHS ON TURKEY
DAY WILL AVG 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH BRISK WINDS ADDING AN
ADDITIONAL CHILL WITH DAYTIME APPARENT TEMPS IN THE WRN MTNS HOLDING
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF THU NGT AS INVERSION HGTS LOWER AND THE
BLYR FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TO THE WSW.

&&

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Where did the snow tomorrow go on the nam?

system gets kicked out too quick... the elongated nature doesn't look like it will allow for any wrap around... system not getting any stronger either yet... having a hard time finding a pressure under 1004 mb... doesn't look like it will get sub 1000mb until majority of precip is clear of all but northeast PA... upper level energy still digging into Gulf while surface low into Virginia and already racing northeast

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A decent amount of ice on trees and cars. Even some ice on the sidewalk out of my apartment. Temperatures might be a touch above freezing, but I think the places that already have ice are still slowly adding to the accumulations. Roads for the most part are fine, though.

There's going to be a 5" thick slab of concrete outside tomorrow when this is all done. Hopefully the tree damage isn't too severe.

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Was sick of hearing about ice without seeing picture, so went out and found some. lol

 

 

 

I would be putting pics up but there's no streetlights out where I live and I can't really get good pics of this in the dark. Should have some wild pics in the morning since I don't think much of this ice will be going anywhere.  

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Here in Carlisle at 11:56pm the temperature is steady at 33.3 degrees.  The heavy rain has tapered a bit to moderate.  I have recorded 1.45" of total liquid for the storm today.  I did not go above freezing until 4:46pm.  It held at 32.2 degrees for almost 2 1/2 hours until 7:13pm and then did not reach 33.0 until 10:01pm.  After hitting a high of 33.3 it has been fluctuating between 33. 3 and 33.1 degrees.  It looks like I will have had a 3.3 degree diurnal day which is quite impressive.  The freezing rain I had deposited a light glaze on all objects except sidewalks and streets.  WInds holding out of the northeast at only around 5 mph.

 

I've enjoyed tuning in periodically throughout the day to catch up on all the latest posts from everyone.  Thanks to all for the updates!

 

---Stephen

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Blair County 911 has been nonstop with calls for trees/branches down for the last couple hours I've had it on. Old US 22 (Not the actual US 22 expressway) that runs from Duncansville up the Allegheny front to Cresson being shut down due to many trees/branches on the road making it impassible. Also,sounded like the firefighters that were trying to clear stuff had to clear their way to get back out of there. 

 

Another call just coming in requesting Route 865 up the mountain from Bellwood to be shut down.

 

Here at home, for now at least....relatively calm winds have kept things from getting out of hand. But I can still hear stuff breaking off and on. It isn't gonna take much of a breeze to tear stuff up with all the ice on the trees. 

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Temperature at the Walker Building has actually cooled almost 2F since the peak temperature in the evening. This ice isn't going anywhere.

 

Yea that seems to be the reality of this icy situation, the temps are about as high as they're going to get for this event. This is not really a normal way to get an ice storm around here. Normally our ice storms come from a low moving up west of PA that have low level cold support in the form of a high up north and CAD. Pittsburgh would get torched and the central part of the state east of the mountains stays locked into the low level cold.  Typically, we would have the main precip shield lift up the and the dry slot that would precede a cold front would mix down the warm air aloft and spike temps up to say, the upper 30s/lower 40s with a good breeze before things cool back off. Most times that allows most of the ice accrual to melt off trees.

 

In this case, we have a coastal low that's tracking in a fashion that in a better setup would have delivered us a big time snowstorm. And there's no warm air west of the mountains, just the colder air rushing back into PA...and leaving a majority of ice on trees. I dread to think of what's going to happen when the winds start to kick up. 

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