Mallow Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Some pictures from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 It could mean a good bit for our particular region (JST/AOO/UNV region) which is already on the fence with marginal temps throughout this storm. Last nights Euro had already cooled off some from the past couple runs, barely getting UNV above freezing at 850 ( 6 hr frames of 0.9, 1.7, and 0.3C). AccuPro offers cross section analysis for the model runs now so I took a cross section from Pittsburgh to Allentown and that illustrated just how close it was in the central part of the state. It's gonna be an interesting battle to watch unfold today, warm air advection aloft could and prob will eventually win the day at some point... but we're already within the shield of more consistent precip. There's no miller B type handoff with a low heading to the lakes transferring to a coastal with this event, just a low running from the Gulf and up the coast...so the warm air push comes more from the south/southeast. If features end up a little bit further east that could mean that warm push aloft stays more relegated to eastern PA and our region remains snow for a good bit longer. Mag, I would imagine a 25-50 mile jog east would be massive for me, correct... Just north of downtown pittsburgh. Right now, I am looking at some mixing issues, and probably 4-8 inches. However, 50 miles west they are looking at all snow and approaching a foot. Would that jog give us a better shot at all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 It could mean a good bit for our particular region (JST/AOO/UNV region) which is already on the fence with marginal temps throughout this storm. Last nights Euro had already cooled off some from the past couple runs, barely getting UNV above freezing at 850 ( 6 hr frames of 0.9, 1.7, and 0.3C). AccuPro offers cross section analysis for the model runs now so I took a cross section from Pittsburgh to Allentown and that illustrated just how close it was in the central part of the state. It's gonna be an interesting battle to watch unfold today, warm air advection aloft could and prob will eventually win the day at some point... but we're already within the shield of more consistent precip. There's no miller B type handoff with a low heading to the lakes transferring to a coastal with this event, just a low running from the Gulf and up the coast...so the warm air push comes more from the south/southeast. If features end up a little bit further east that could mean that warm push aloft stays more relegated to eastern PA and our region remains snow for a good bit longer. To illustrate what I'm talking about, here's the 12z NAM winds for 14z: And here's reality: You can clearly see that the front/wind shift is quite a bit further east than progged, even by the 12z NAM. Not sure if it makes any real difference, though, because if it's JUST surface features, we're well to the west of the surface front at all times up here anyway. The real question is whether the 850mb flow is also shifted east of where it's modeled to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Ratios for the overnight snow were around 20:1...that's another surprise, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Event extended (both time and area). Winter Weather Advisory from 11/26/2013 10:21 AM to 4:00 PM EST for Lancaster County. More information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1021 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER IMPACTING PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL...PAZ057-059-065-066-262100-/O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-131126T2100Z/ DAUPHIN-LEBANON-YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...LEBANON...YORK... LANCASTER 1021 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.* HAZARD TYPES...WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET. LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH OF ICE.* TIMING...WINTRY MIX WILL CHANGE TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. Coworker reports icing in southern York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Steady light rain here, 34 out. Never saw any snow or sleet at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Mesoscale discussion concering central PA http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2013/md2042.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Mesoscale discussion concering central PA http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2013/md2042.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Light snow continues. Looks like 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Looks like SPC is getting concerned about freezing rain by afternoon for much of the central part of the commonwealth south of I-80 or so ... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2042.html. Seems in step with a somewhat-cooler-than-earlier-progged storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 To illustrate what I'm talking about... You can clearly see that the front/wind shift is quite a bit further east than progged, even by the 12z NAM. Not sure if it makes any real difference, though, because if it's JUST surface features, we're well to the west of the surface front at all times up here anyway. The real question is whether the 850mb flow is also shifted east of where it's modeled to be. Just checked the 12z 850mb sounding map vs. the Euro and the NAM. Looks like the NAM is too far west and too warm at 850mb. The Euro is almost spot on, though. Some areas (eastern VA down through northern GA) are warmer than the Euro, while some (western NC up through southwestern OH) are cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 I can report ice on the ground in downtown HBG, almost fell walking to the capitol complex. Edit: It's a 50-50 mix of what I imagine is zr and graupel or however it's spelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 City schools letting out early...but I don't agree. It's still snowing but now it's not even sticking and any accumulation from the morning is melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Just has a customer tell me they had sleet on there way from New Bloomfield to Harrisburg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Man if we had good blocking this storm would be frickin' legendary. Truly, truly a wasted storm. It's just depressing, but still enjoy the flackage for those of you N&W of I-81! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Just made a pit stop in Milroy on the way back to Bellefonte. 1.5" on the ground with steady snow. 322 is messy...now to run the Seven Mountains gauntlet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Now over to a chilly rain in Lancaster. Annnnd there goes our winter weather for today. Enjoy the flakes/mix up north and west guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Someone is going to get decked by ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Man if we had good blocking this storm would be frickin' legendary. Truly, truly a wasted storm. It's just depressing, but still enjoy the flackage for those of you N&W of I-81! It's one of those "too little, too late" patterns for much of the Northeast, where a storm does get its act together but too late for it to be a truly major winter storm unless you're near the Canadian border or north. It will still be a nasty one though for many on the Appalachian spine and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 gotta make a decision if i let my daughter drive to New Cumberland or not. 1st time with snow/sllet frzn.. i doubt the roads get bad here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Just made a pit stop in Milroy on the way back to Bellefonte. 1.5" on the ground with steady snow. 322 is messy...now to run the Seven Mountains gauntlet. I was confused about how you originally wrote "Mildly"; not knowing where it was, I typed that into the search field on the NWS site, and it turns out that it's a place in Lycoming county, a little east of Jersey Shore. Milroy definitely makes more sense if you are on 322. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 What's the deal with Charleston, WV radar? Looks like the northeast side is not sending in data correctly or something. Looks like a big dry spot on radar, but it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 31 here in JST with light snow. About 3". At home 32 now and freezing rain. Friend reported it getting pretty icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Someone is going to get decked by ice. Yep, looks very borderline for I-99, Rt. 220. Could still be some surprises for sure. Maybe latent heating from fast ice accretion saves it from being a widespread damaging ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 temp 29 dew 25 Heavy glaze on everything with fzra currently Temp is still dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Yep, looks very borderline for I-99, Rt. 220. Could still be some surprises for sure. Maybe latent heating from fast ice accretion saves it from being a widespread damaging ice storm. Surprising thing is temps are still falling. Was at 34 at my house now 31.9. A few places might get some pretty bad ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 It's one of those "too little, too late" patterns for much of the Northeast, where a storm does get its act together but too late for it to be a truly major winter storm unless you're near the Canadian border or north. It will still be a nasty one though for many on the Appalachian spine and west. Meh..I didn't expect what we got so far so this is a win for snowlovers around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Ok RGEM just is insane. I hope to god this would never happen. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 i just went outside. In Harrisburg we have Sleet and FRZN, all metal dock surfaces have ice.and the parking lot is getting a glaze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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