NeffsvilleWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Points west of Altoona have a WSW, south of the mason dixon have a WWA and east of Lanco have a hazardous outlook. The middle third of the state? Nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 Probably normal 10-1. Cold air is going to be rushing in. The Euro temps showed more of a spike at 850 today than there really had been since this became a mix/rain event on the models in the central counties, UNV and AOO spend a frame at 4.9 and 4.1ºC respectively. I think you, me and 2001kx are going to eventually be right near the rain/snow line in the latter stages of this storm as it comes up. If it can get further east before the main precip lifts out, maybe we could sneak a few inches of snow. As for the debacle thats going to ensue for the early and mid stages, it's going to be a tough forecast. Lack of a high and strong WAA aloft lead me to think that an initial period of snow could be short lived and maybe deliver up to an inch before sleet and liquid take over, but surface temps are going to remain close to freezing... so freezing rain will likely be an issue for a time. That's my educated guess on things, although there could be surprises. I mean we are talking about a system that moves a low from the gulf and up the east coast... not the normal track for these circumstances where we generally see a low running toward the lakes with a secondary. There's also this secondary wave of precip the NAM has been insisting on and the GFS had today to consider as well, but we'll see about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The Euro temps showed more of a spike at 850 today than there really had been since this became a mix/rain event on the models in the central counties, UNV and AOO spend a frame at 4.9 and 4.1ºC respectively. I think you, me and 2001kx are going to eventually be right near the rain/snow line in the latter stages of this storm as it comes up. If it can get further east before the main precip lifts out, maybe we could sneak a few inches of snow. As for the debacle thats going to ensue for the early and mid stages, it's going to be a tough forecast. Lack of a high and strong WAA aloft lead me to think that an initial period of snow could be short lived and maybe deliver up to an inch before sleet and liquid take over, but surface temps are going to remain close to freezing... so freezing rain will likely be an issue for a time. That's my educated guess on things, although there could be surprises. I mean we are talking about a system that moves a low from the gulf and up the east coast... not the normal track for these circumstances where we generally see a low running toward the lakes with a secondary. There's also this secondary wave of precip the NAM has been insisting on and the GFS had today to consider as well, but we'll see about that. What are your thoughts for Cambria County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 lol DT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 lol DT... That's just embarrassing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 lol DT... At least there's no more sh!tting off of rain on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 lol DT... 4-12 is quite the range.....BUT he forgot Lake effect after, so 4-18 seems better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Points west of Altoona have a WSW, south of the mason dixon have a WWA and east of Lanco have a hazardous outlook. The middle third of the state? Nothing Whiteout conditions... My guess is they go with a WWA for any freezing/frozen precip at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 New map from CTP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 And ice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 lol DT... this is what he typically does though... next update will be different and he will claim something like he believes things are looking warmer than what the models are showing and will change the snow totals and then will throw a hissy fit over anyone who tries to tell him his original thoughts were wrong... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 here comes the WWA's and WSW's from CTP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Points west of Altoona have a WSW, south of the mason dixon have a WWA and east of Lanco have a hazardous outlook. The middle third of the state? Nothing Not anymore. Headlines are going up. RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1048 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... .A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO THE REGION...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-260200- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0008.131126T1500Z-131127T1800Z/ WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT... ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD... JOHNSTOWN...SOMERSET 1048 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. * HAZARD TYPES...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE POSSIBLE. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Not anymore. Headlines are going up. You're right, everywhere but lancaster, york, dauphin and lebanon My guess is that they're not quite sure how to call it yet. Could be a WWA or it could just as easily be an outlook situation. I'm inclined to go with an outlook. I don't expect much more than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Looking at the warning...not much difference between the WSW for Cambria and Somerset and the WWA for AOO and UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 God I might get fed up in JST. What the hell is moderate ice?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Seems like they're buying into accumulating back end snow for the area too... with .25-.50 of all snow precip forecasted for wednesday. Gotta like that!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 God I might get fed up in JST. What the hell is moderate ice?? Probably between .10-.20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Probably between .10-.20 Ya just called CTP. 10-.25" they said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Meanwhile, it's pretty much just everything here - BGM has the "expect anything up to and including frogs or so" forecast: Rain before 10am, then rain and sleet between 10am and 3pm, then rain, snow, and sleet after 3pm. High near 38. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 12 to 17 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 God I might get fed up in JST. What the hell is moderate ice?? Slick roads and power outages. We will never reach freezing now, really clouded up, looks like rain. I guess its possable we may have a lil ice at the onset until warm air comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Got up to 36 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Thank god I can now rest easy here in Hershey. No significant weather coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Got up to 36 here. MDT is showing 32, at home i'm told its 30. djr, you at home and confirm temp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 MDT is showing 32, at home i'm told its 30. djr, you at home and confirm temp? My station hit 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I'd imagine those four counties are as tricky as northern Balt was for LWX. My forecast is for a mix bag and rain, WWA until 4pm tomorrow. Not expecting much in terms of wintry precip, just enough to make tomorrow's morning commute a pain in the arse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Area of snow right now in KY where models don't have anything. Bears watching as it moves ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I'd imagine those four counties are as tricky as northern Balt was for LWX. My forecast is for a mix bag and rain, WWA until 4pm tomorrow. Not expecting much in terms of wintry precip, just enough to make tomorrow's morning commute a pain in the arse. I've always wondered why the NWS gave those counties to CTP instead of PHI or LWX. To this layman, CTP doesn't fit all that well due to climatological differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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