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Central PA - Early December


MAG5035

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Probably normal 10-1. Cold air is going to be rushing in. 

 

The Euro temps showed more of a spike at 850 today than there really had been since this became a mix/rain event on the models in the central counties, UNV and AOO spend a frame at 4.9 and 4.1ºC respectively. I think you, me and 2001kx are going to eventually be right near the rain/snow line in the latter stages of this storm as it comes up. If it can get further east before the main precip lifts out, maybe we could sneak a few inches of snow. As for the debacle thats going to ensue for the early and mid stages, it's going to be a tough forecast. Lack of a high and strong WAA aloft lead me to think that an initial period of snow could be short lived and maybe deliver up to an inch before sleet and liquid take over, but surface temps are going to remain close to freezing... so freezing rain will likely be an issue for a time. That's my educated guess on things, although there could be surprises. I mean we are talking about a system that moves a low from the gulf and up the east coast... not the normal track for these circumstances where we generally see a low running toward the lakes with a secondary.

 

There's also this secondary wave of precip the NAM has been insisting on and the GFS had today to consider as well, but we'll see about that. 

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The Euro temps showed more of a spike at 850 today than there really had been since this became a mix/rain event on the models in the central counties, UNV and AOO spend a frame at 4.9 and 4.1ºC respectively. I think you, me and 2001kx are going to eventually be right near the rain/snow line in the latter stages of this storm as it comes up. If it can get further east before the main precip lifts out, maybe we could sneak a few inches of snow. As for the debacle thats going to ensue for the early and mid stages, it's going to be a tough forecast. Lack of a high and strong WAA aloft lead me to think that an initial period of snow could be short lived and maybe deliver up to an inch before sleet and liquid take over, but surface temps are going to remain close to freezing... so freezing rain will likely be an issue for a time. That's my educated guess on things, although there could be surprises. I mean we are talking about a system that moves a low from the gulf and up the east coast... not the normal track for these circumstances where we generally see a low running toward the lakes with a secondary.

 

There's also this secondary wave of precip the NAM has been insisting on and the GFS had today to consider as well, but we'll see about that. 

 

What are your thoughts for Cambria County?

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lol DT...

 

BZ8RR32CIAEYr2c.jpg

this is what he typically does though... next update will be different and he will claim something like he believes things are looking warmer than what the models are showing and will change the snow totals and then will throw a hissy fit over anyone who tries to tell him his original thoughts were wrong... lol

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Points west of Altoona have a WSW, south of the mason dixon have a WWA and east of Lanco have a hazardous outlook. The middle third of the state? Nothing :lol:

Not anymore.  Headlines are going up.

 

 

 

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 

1048 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... 

.A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST AND 

MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL 

BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO THE REGION...WITH 

SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN 

POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. 

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-260200- 

/O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0008.131126T1500Z-131127T1800Z/ 

WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET- 

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT... 

ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD... 

JOHNSTOWN...SOMERSET 

1048 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013 

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING 

THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... 

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. 

* HAZARD TYPES...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH SIGNIFICANT 

ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF BY 

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. 

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. 

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. 

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Meanwhile, it's pretty much just everything here - BGM has the "expect anything up to and including frogs or so" forecast:

 

Rain before 10am, then rain and sleet between 10am and 3pm, then rain, snow, and sleet after 3pm. High near 38. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 12 to 17 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

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I'd imagine those four counties are as tricky as northern Balt was for LWX. My forecast is for a mix bag and rain, WWA until 4pm tomorrow. Not expecting much in terms of wintry precip, just enough to make tomorrow's morning commute a pain in the arse.

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I'd imagine those four counties are as tricky as northern Balt was for LWX. My forecast is for a mix bag and rain, WWA until 4pm tomorrow. Not expecting much in terms of wintry precip, just enough to make tomorrow's morning commute a pain in the arse.

 

I've always wondered why the NWS gave those counties to CTP instead of PHI or LWX. To this layman, CTP doesn't fit all that well due to climatological differences.

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