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Central PA - Early December


MAG5035

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Any chance this starts as wintry precip?

Definitely. All models show it. 

 

 

IPT...first number after NOV is 2M temp, second 850

 

EURO:

 

TUE 12Z 26-NOV -2.6 -3.9 1026 45 98 0.01 559 539

TUE 18Z 26-NOV -1.3 -2.8 1024 75 98 0.04 559 541

WED 00Z 27-NOV -2.3 0.6 1019 94 97 0.15 559 544

WED 06Z 27-NOV 3.8 3.8 1004 97 100 0.58 557 553

 

NAM:

 

TUE 7A 26-NOV -2.9 -5.7 1025 91 98 0.02 558 538

TUE 1P 26-NOV 1.2 -3.1 1023 90 99 0.05 559 541

TUE 7P 26-NOV -0.2 1.3 1017 98 97 0.31 559 545

 

GFS:

 

TUE 12Z 26-NOV -3.7 -4.3 1025 60 98 0.01 559 539

TUE 18Z 26-NOV 0.0 -1.9 1022 70 97 0.03 559 542

WED 00Z 27-NOV -0.3 1.5 1017 96 100 0.32 559 545

 

Those imply at least .20-.25 as frozen.  

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NAM is downright warm and a deluge for all posters.

the NAM also likes to allow for daytime warming of surface temperatures during heavy precip more than it should... I still believe there will be areas that have ice issues somewhere in PA just not sure where... just will be further north and west from MDT region than I first thought last week... I can't wait to see what surface obs are as this moves in to see if winds are easterly as surface... east/southeast winds do strange things around here with forecast temperatures often too high... I can see 34 and rain for MDT... UNV 32 and rain = yikes... even if no ice on roads I can see elevated surfaces such as bridges, trees, decks, etc end up icy... that is the worst when you go from a wet road to sudden sheet of ice

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the NAM also likes to allow for daytime warming of surface temperatures during heavy precip more than it should... I still believe there will be areas that have ice issues somewhere in PA just not sure where... just will be further north and west from MDT region than I first thought last week... I can't wait to see what surface obs are as this moves in to see if winds are easterly as surface... east/southeast winds do strange things around here with forecast temperatures often too high... I can see 34 and rain for MDT... UNV 32 and rain = yikes... even if no ice on roads I can see elevated surfaces such as bridges, trees, decks, etc end up icy... that is the worst when you go from a wet road to sudden sheet of ice

Sounds reasonable to me but seems to be discounted a bit. Guess we will wait and see!!

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NAM shows backend snow for all, but we know how that works out.

 

Is that where the term "freezing your ass off" came from???

 

Anyway, I can count on one hand how many times back end snows verified with any significance here. It's very rare for my area, perhaps others work out better, but usually the precip shuts off here before any real changeover happens.

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I can't believe how quick the dang surface warms up!!

 

 

well, the way i look at it, its November. The cold we had yesterday and this morning wasn't normal. The chance we (lower Susq valley) had was a Doug Flutie hail mary from the start.

Yeah, in the setup we have, it's ocean temps that are the issue. 

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