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Central PA - Early December


MAG5035

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CTP opted for watches in the far west and northwest of the CWA to match up with Pittsburgh's.

 

Initial snow map (no ice product issued yet):

 

post-1507-0-10415800-1385372207_thumb.pn

 

Morning discussion update:

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO HEAD DOWNHILL TUESDAY AS STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING/PHASING UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WE BEGIN THE DAY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN ALL AREAS...BUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALL
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS WARM AIR INVADING SOUTHERN
PA...BRINGING ABOUT A RAPID CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN...BUT WITH A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN. LOOKING AT STABILITY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT BUT WE
SHUD STILL MANAGE TO REBOUND OVER FREEZING OVER MOST EASTERN
AREAS BY AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR A CHILLY RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME
SLEET. OVERALL IT JUST LOOKS LIKE A COMPLICATED MESS POISED TO
DEVELOP AND THE RAIN SNOW LINES I DREW THIS MORNING WILL NO DOUBT
SHIFT AROUND AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

AT THIS POINT I KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW OR A
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX OVER MY WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN.
MY FAR NWRN ZONES ARE FAVORED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE AS BEING ALL
OR MOSTLY SNOW WITH 6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF THE
WINTER STORM WATCH OVER THE LAURELS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME OF
SEEING 6 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT BEING THE FIRST WIDESPREAD STORM OF
THE SEASON AND THE EXPECTED HOLIDAY TRAVEL THAT WILL BE
OCCURRING...I WENT FOR THE OVERALL IMPACT OF THE SNOW/ICE TO
JUSTIFY THE WATCH.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS THE
LOW SLIDES UP ALONG THE COAST OR JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN PA. THE
ORIENTATION OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
ACTUALLY BE A SERIES OF WAVES ALONG THE EASTERN FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET A WIDE AREA OF HEAVY SNOW ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE IS NO COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH SO THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP SEEMS DESTINED TO BE DRIVEN BY A PERIOD OF
INTENSE WARM ADVECTION...HINTING THAT THE STRIPE OF HEAVY SNOW ON
THE WESTERN FRINGE WILL BE RELATIVELY NARROW WITHIN THE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. BY THE TIME WE GET INTO THE COLD AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...WE LOSE THE FORCING AND ANY
CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW TYPICALLY DOESN`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.
THE ONLY
WAY WE COULD SEE SIG SNOW IN THE AREAS WHERE A CHANGEOVER RESULTS
WOULD BE FOR A NEW WAVE OR WAVES TO RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONT AS THE
COLD AIR RETURNS...AND THERE IS NOT MUCH SIGN OF THAT AT THIS
TIME.

IN GENERAL...WE DO NOT GET OUR BIGGEST SNOW STORMS FROM LOWS
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WITH HIGHS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.


SO FOR THE STORM...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF MY EASTERN COUNTIES WILL
SEE A SOAKING RAIN...WITH SOME SORT OF WINTRY MIX OVER MY CENTRAL
AREAS...AND THE BEST CHANCE OF ALL OR MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NW.
THE
RAIN SHOULD NOT CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES...BUT PLACES THAT
HAVE NOT CLEARED LEAVES FROM STORM DRAINS COULD SEE SOME MINOR
PROBLEMS IN THE NORMAL LOW LYING AREAS PRONE TO MINOR FLOODING.
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA THE WINTRY PRECIP WILL BRING THE
TYPICAL TRAVEL ISSUES THAT OCCUR AS SNOW AND ICE MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS. ADD IN THAT THIS WILL BE THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD SYSTEM OF THE SEASON COINCIDING WITH HOLIDAY
TRAVELERS...AND NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE PROBLEMS ON REGIONAL
ROADWAYS.

 

 

 

 
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Probably the only bonus to being in a ****hole like Du Bois would be this storm lol

 

You should try living in a ****hole like Tamaqua. Hardly ever see any of the lake effect, almost always get the changeover like MDT, RDG, and ABE, and miss out on any elevation dependent snows by about 7 miles and 1,000ft.

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So it would seem we have all this QPF coming in with this system. With no blocking to the north.

Also seems like we will be getting over an 1.0 " of rain.
I was looking at the soundings and they don't look to good. :cry:   How much will CAD play into this?
 

Edit: Just wondering is there going to be 2 lows? Or are the models having trouble with this?

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So it would seem we have all this QPF coming in with this system. With no blocking to the north.

Also seems like we will be getting over an 1.0 " of rain.

I was looking at the soundings and they don't look to good. :cry: How much will CAD play into this?

Hey pa watch from what I understand CAD will be very limited because we have the wrong wind direction.

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