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Central PA - Early December


MAG5035

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There is still a huge amount of uncertainty with this system, as expressed looking at the 18z GFS ensembles (below, which are typically under dispersive). The spread in primary low tracks range from Cape Cod, MA to Montreal, Canada. Moreover, the shortwave digging into the great lakes by 60-72 hours is originating from a large region of shear vorticity which is often very poorly modeled when the feature is strung out over a longwave ridge. Expect a few more substantial shifts before the models lock on to an optimal solution. 

 

 

 

Although I agree to an extent, with respect to sensible weather here in State College I don't think the position makes a huge difference at this point. Indeed, the 18z GFS ensembles are very well agreed upon the idea that most of the precip is rain here now, even with the wide range of low locations up the coast.

StateCollege,PA-ptype.png

 

 

Of course, as you note, the ensembles usually don't capture the full range of possibilities. Still, other than the 18z NAM, we don't have a lot of model support for having more than a couple inches on the ground at any time.

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Although I agree to an extent, with respect to sensible weather here in State College I don't think the position makes a huge difference at this point. Indeed, the 18z GFS ensembles are very well agreed upon the idea that most of the precip is rain here now, even with the wide range of low locations up the coast.

StateCollege,PA-ptype.png

 

 

Of course, as you note, the ensembles usually don't capture the full range of possibilities. Still, other than the 18z NAM, we don't have a lot of model support for having more than a couple inches on the ground at any time.

 

I tend to agree. Better not get our hopes up over this mess of a storm. In fact if this is a snow-mess-snow scenario, the optimistic viewpoint is that we are getting two snow events rather than one.

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Right now the sweet spot seems to be in a triangle from  Bradford to Kittanning and Butler. I feel this area has the best shot at staying all snow. Clearfield to Somerset corridor looks to have a shot at 3-6 before mixing to slop before ending as snow or drizzle. The 99 corridor seems to me to get a few inches before a change to slop and then rain. Elevation will determine how long p-types will occur. 

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Now my forecast says this:

 

  • Monday Night A chance of snow, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • Tuesday Freezing rain and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
  • Tuesday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
  • Wednesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
  • Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

:banned:

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sigh...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA702 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013PAZ006-011-012-017>019-045-260015-POTTER-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CLINTON-702 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA..DAY ONE...TONIGHT.LOCALIZED SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ASA BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A BRIEF...5 TO 10 MINUTE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL WHITEN THE GROUNDWITHIN THIS BAND...AND LOWER THE VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF OF A MILEOR LESS. THIS ADVERSE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO REGION NEAR ANDEAST OF A LINE FROM PINE GLEN...SNOWSHOE AND BELLEFONTE...INCLUDING EMPORIUM...KEATING AND BEACH CREEK..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COASTLATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OFMODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THEREGION..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHERCONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.$$LAMBERT
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How much of an east shift do we need!! Seems like a waste of great qpf lol.

 

From the first low, like 100 miles lol. 

 

There will be some ice and snow issues, but heavy rain on frozen ground is my main concern. Shame to see a 33 degree rain. Bleh. Not even going to escape it out in Johnstown. 

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How much of an east shift do we need!! Seems like a waste of great qpf lol.

 

The track actually isn't really the issue, most guidance suggests a great surface low track for C-PA, unfortunately storm evolution and especially the lack of a high up north really make me pessimistic about this being a widespread significant snow/ice maker. And I am rarely pessimistic when it comes to any event with winter potential. With that said, there is still a reasonable winter threat in roughly the western 1/3 to half the state, with better chances towards NW PA.. and I think a good part of our region may start off with some frozen before WAA floods in on the southerly flow aloft. I just think any 6+ snows are going to be limited to a smaller area, probably generally in NWS Pittsburgh's northern half of their CWA somewhere. That's just my opinion looking at things currently. As the storm lifts up the coast and deepens, there will likely be a changeover (or change back to snow) that will try to swing across the state.. but the fast movement of the system leads me to think precip could shut off and lift to the northeast before cold air support makes it much past the Alleghenies. 

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WJAC Channel 6 just showed what would appear to be a significant CAD win for the central and LSV on their futurecast. Granted it's just graphics and likely to change but from what that showed, places like State College, Altoona, Huntingdon on over to Lewistown and the LSV would want to look out for icing.

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