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Central PA - Early December

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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2001kx

2001kx

Posted
Posted

Curiously enough, NWS has dropped rain completely from our forecast for 16870:

 

  • Monday Night A slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
  • Tuesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
  • Tuesday Night Freezing rain and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
  • Wednesday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
  • Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

For State College just has rain/snow turning to snow by 1 pm and same for Tuesday night.

 

I don't get it.

same here but all snow.

 

  • Monday Night A chance of snow, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
  • Tuesday Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
  • Tuesday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
  • Wednesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
  • Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

Posted
Posted

BTW new record high low set at 29. Down to 26 now and still light snows. 

Don't you mean record low high??  It was a record low maximum for the date.

 

It was shockingly frigid stepping outside this morning with a temp of 24 and wind chill around 10 degrees.  Glad I told my son to put up the Christmas lights last weekend when temps were in the 60's!  This cold blast really is impressive.  Regarding snowstorms around Thanksgiving, I recall a pretty good one back in 1989 in northern NJ where it snowed 8" the night before Thanksgiving.  We all woke up to a huge mantle of white.  That is the only Thanksgiving I can remember that had snow on the ground on that day except for possibly 2002?  I remember thinking that it snowed on nearly every winter holiday that season.

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EasternUSWX

EasternUSWX

Posted
Posted

Don't you mean record low high??  It was a record low maximum for the date.

 

It was shockingly frigid stepping outside this morning with a temp of 24 and wind chill around 10 degrees.  Glad I told my son to put up the Christmas lights last weekend when temps were in the 60's!  This cold blast really is impressive.  Regarding snowstorms around Thanksgiving, I recall a pretty good one back in 1989 in northern NJ where it snowed 8" the night before Thanksgiving.  We all woke up to a huge mantle of white.  That is the only Thanksgiving I can remember that had snow on the ground on that day except for possibly 2002?  I remember thinking that it snowed on nearly every winter holiday that season.

 

Ya. 

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted

18z GFS through hour 45 looking, if anything, like it's gonna be even warmer than the 12z run.

Yep. Has maybe an inch of snow here in State College to start, then almost all rain after that. Nothing on the back end.

GFS has handled this system horribly, no reason to look at it. It is pulling in dead last right now in the model ranking stats. 

 

 

Really, the GFS just sucks. Two days ago it was supressed and out to sea and now it continues to trend west and warmer...lol

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Like I mentioned this morning, the prospect of potentially seeing mostly snow in roughly the western third or so of PA with some sort of a free for all mix and/or rain depending on where your at in the central and east is not a typical setup we see, especially when we have low tracking the coastline.

 

With the GFS now on board, there's a pretty good clustering of the low track up along the coast between the Euro/GFS/NAM with the Canadian taking a more inland track. That's normally a track that would do the trick for most of us, but there's no high to the north and thus no real reinforcing source of low level cold. I would normally be inclined to say that the central counties would hold frozen more than the models might suggest but I doubt it in this case. The CTP discussion about the lack of an easterly flow (rather southerly flow and warm advection driven) and the associated effects is a great point as well. That all leads to the danger that the region of decent snowfall ends up being quite narrow, and that this event is more defined as a rain/snow type rather than having an area of significant icing in the central between the rain and snow. And i'm definitely not writing off what will likely be an initial period of snow/ice in the central, I just think that things will yield quickly to rain where we have the significant southerly flow aloft and no high to the north to support surface cold. There's also some models trying to make a back end or a secondary burst of precip that would be more likely to deliver snow further into central PA and buying into that scenario doesn't pan out very often. I think with regards to how far east we can get the rain/snow line, it's going to boil down to how rapidly this storm deepens. 

 

This storm is likely going to make a wintry mess for somebody, and it could well be the folks in western and central PA...but I see alot of red flags that tell me the bust potential is very high with this one. 

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WmsptWx

WmsptWx

Posted
Posted

If its not going to snow let's have warmth, but no rain!

 

NO!

 

 

As I said in the last thread earlier in the week, it is my belief (and I know it is shared by many) that fall and the time period around Thanksgiving should be cold and gray or at the very least, cold. To me, it just feels wrong to have a bright and sunny, 50 degree day this late into November, but especially on Thanksgiving which is the start of the holiday season and therefore, COLD season.

 

It can be warm on Easter. I want it to be cold on Thanksgiving. That way I don't feel so bad in cultivating so much mass. I mean, you ever eat to excess because it's going to be warm and you an extra layer or two?

 

Me neither...

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cfbaggett

cfbaggett

Posted
Posted

Walker Building rooftop peaked at 25.8F in State College today. Usually the climate station, in the shade on the north side of the building, verifies 0 to 2F colder. The record low high for the date is 25 set in 1903. We'll find out in the morning if we broke the record.

 

We hit 15 last night which just missed the record low of 14. The record low tonight is 10. As long as there is wind, there's little chance of reaching it.

 

Amazingly, we were in the -25 to -30C range at 700mb this afternoon!

 

My thoughts on the storm: Euro trended a little colder today than its 0Z run. I'd like to see that trend reflected in the ensemble package and continued at 0Z tonight. I am of course rooting for the 18Z NAM and personally believe it is a best case scenario for snow at this point.

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cfbaggett

cfbaggett

Posted
Posted

For UNV, Euro ensembles depict (rather adamantly) a quick 2 to 4" thumping. Then ????. Then another 2 to 4". About 10% of the members are juicy with 10" of total snowfall. None are less than 3".

 

As far as total QPF, the mean is 1.6" which is a decline from the 1.9" depicted at 0Z.

 

Also, many members are showing sub-zero readings a few days after the storm... presumably members with snow on the ground.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

There is still a huge amount of uncertainty with this system, as expressed looking at the 18z GFS ensembles (below, which are typically under dispersive). The spread in primary low tracks range from Cape Cod, MA to Montreal, Canada. Moreover, the shortwave digging into the great lakes by 60-72 hours is originating from a large region of shear vorticity which is often very poorly modeled when the feature is strung out over a longwave ridge. Expect a few more substantial shifts before the models lock on to an optimal solution. 

 

gfs-ens_lowlocs_us_7.png

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